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Tesla China’s average April not something to ‘get hung up on’: Piper Sandler

(Credit: Tesla China)

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Tesla China’s average sales figures in April are not something to “get hung up on,” according to the analysts at Wall Street firm Piper Sandler.

Tesla’s performance in sales in April in China wasn’t typical for the electric automaker, as figures from the Chinese Passenger Car Association showed that Tesla had successfully sold 25,845 units during the fourth month of the year. This included 14,174 exports that were shipped off to other regions, including Europe, where Tesla has been delivering cars from Giga Shanghai since the beginning of 2021.

However, these numbers are conflicting, and there seems to be some confusion within many analysts and those who track vehicle registration statistics. Initially, it was reported as a massive month for Tesla in China, with the over 14,000 exported vehicles not being included in the 25,845 units sold domestically to the Chinese market. This would make Tesla’s April in China a huge deal: 40,019 cars produced and delivered from Giga Shanghai.

Piper Sandler mentions in their note that the confusion between the conflicting reports is causing plenty of interaction with clients who are invested in Tesla stock. “We’ve been exchanging emails with confused clients all morning, following the overnight release of Tesla’s monthly sales figures in China,” Sandler analysts wrote. “Our original interpretation: 25,845 units were sold in China, but this may be incorrect. The wording online is vague/contradictory (exports have not historically been disclosed), and it’s possible that a TOTAL of 25,845 units were sold, only 11,671 of which were in China.”

Sandler analysts are looking at both scenarios with the possibility that either is realistic. A -66% month over month decline from March to April seems like it’s hard to believe, but reports from China indicate that Tesla’s Model Y production line was impacted for at least two weeks in April. This would contribute to the idea of a massive monthly dropoff in sales simply because Tesla didn’t have the capability to deliver that many units.

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Telsa sold 10,000 Model Y units in China in March, the Sandler note says. The analysts indicate that they believe April’s figures would have been higher as Tesla continues to ramp production volume at the Chinese plant. If Tesla shut down the Model Y lines for two weeks, there would have been a drop in sales of between 5,000 and 7,000 units, the analysts predict.

Still, the analysts at Piper Sander, which includes Alex Potter and Winnie Dong, don’t believe that the lackluster performance in April is anything to be concerned about. “Don’t stare too closely at these monthly numbers because it’s easy to get tied up in knots. We prefer to examine Tesla’s market share on a trailing 3-month basis, and we try to avoid extrapolating based on the most recent month of data. This is the case regardless of whether the latest results were good (supporting our thesis) or bad (contradicting our thesis).”

The market share argument is much more convenient for examining Tesla’s long-term success in the Chinese market. Through March 2021, Tesla had the second and fifth-most popular vehicles in China. The Model 3 is second, with 52,859 units registered in 2021, accounting for 11% of the total EV market share in China. The Model Y was in fifth, with 16,422 units accounting for 3% of the market share. Tesla’s either 25,845 units or 40,019 units, depending on how you choose to look at it until the CPCA gives clarification, only contributes to the company’s strong sales performance in China.

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According to the EV Sales Blog, these figures contribute to Tesla’s industry-leading performance as the most popular OEM in the EV sector, with a commanding lead over SAIC through Q1.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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Investor's Corner

Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Tesla (TSLA) ‘Overweight’ rating amid Q2 2025 deliveries

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $355 price target amidst the company’s release of its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. 

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, falling below last year’s Q2 figure of 443,956 units. Despite softer demand in some countries in Europe and ongoing controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, the firm maintained its view that Tesla is a long-term growth story in the EV sector.

Tesla’s Q2 results

Among the 384,122 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the second quarter, 373,728 were Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining 10,394 units were attributed to the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. Production was largely flat year-over-year at 410,244 units.

In the energy division, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage in Q2, which was above last year’s 9.4 GWh. Overall, Tesla continues to hold a strong position with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 17.7% gross margin, as noted in a report from Investing.com.

Tesla’s stock is still volatile

Tesla’s market cap fell to $941 billion on Monday amid volatility that was likely caused in no small part by CEO Elon Musk’s political posts on X over the weekend. Musk has announced that he is forming the America Party to serve as a third option for voters in the United States, a decision that has earned the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

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Despite Musk’s controversial nature, some analysts remain bullish on TSLA stock. Apart from Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated its “Buy” rating on Tesla shares, with the firm highlighting the company’s positive Q2 vehicle deliveries, which exceeded its expectations by 24,000 units. Cannacord also noted that Tesla remains strong in several markets despite its year-over-year decline in deliveries.

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