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Tesla China’s average April not something to ‘get hung up on’: Piper Sandler

(Credit: Tesla China)

Published

4 years ago

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Tesla China’s average sales figures in April are not something to “get hung up on,” according to the analysts at Wall Street firm Piper Sandler.

Tesla’s performance in sales in April in China wasn’t typical for the electric automaker, as figures from the Chinese Passenger Car Association showed that Tesla had successfully sold 25,845 units during the fourth month of the year. This included 14,174 exports that were shipped off to other regions, including Europe, where Tesla has been delivering cars from Giga Shanghai since the beginning of 2021.

However, these numbers are conflicting, and there seems to be some confusion within many analysts and those who track vehicle registration statistics. Initially, it was reported as a massive month for Tesla in China, with the over 14,000 exported vehicles not being included in the 25,845 units sold domestically to the Chinese market. This would make Tesla’s April in China a huge deal: 40,019 cars produced and delivered from Giga Shanghai.

Piper Sandler mentions in their note that the confusion between the conflicting reports is causing plenty of interaction with clients who are invested in Tesla stock. “We’ve been exchanging emails with confused clients all morning, following the overnight release of Tesla’s monthly sales figures in China,” Sandler analysts wrote. “Our original interpretation: 25,845 units were sold in China, but this may be incorrect. The wording online is vague/contradictory (exports have not historically been disclosed), and it’s possible that a TOTAL of 25,845 units were sold, only 11,671 of which were in China.”

Sandler analysts are looking at both scenarios with the possibility that either is realistic. A -66% month over month decline from March to April seems like it’s hard to believe, but reports from China indicate that Tesla’s Model Y production line was impacted for at least two weeks in April. This would contribute to the idea of a massive monthly dropoff in sales simply because Tesla didn’t have the capability to deliver that many units.

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Telsa sold 10,000 Model Y units in China in March, the Sandler note says. The analysts indicate that they believe April’s figures would have been higher as Tesla continues to ramp production volume at the Chinese plant. If Tesla shut down the Model Y lines for two weeks, there would have been a drop in sales of between 5,000 and 7,000 units, the analysts predict.

Still, the analysts at Piper Sander, which includes Alex Potter and Winnie Dong, don’t believe that the lackluster performance in April is anything to be concerned about. “Don’t stare too closely at these monthly numbers because it’s easy to get tied up in knots. We prefer to examine Tesla’s market share on a trailing 3-month basis, and we try to avoid extrapolating based on the most recent month of data. This is the case regardless of whether the latest results were good (supporting our thesis) or bad (contradicting our thesis).”

The market share argument is much more convenient for examining Tesla’s long-term success in the Chinese market. Through March 2021, Tesla had the second and fifth-most popular vehicles in China. The Model 3 is second, with 52,859 units registered in 2021, accounting for 11% of the total EV market share in China. The Model Y was in fifth, with 16,422 units accounting for 3% of the market share. Tesla’s either 25,845 units or 40,019 units, depending on how you choose to look at it until the CPCA gives clarification, only contributes to the company’s strong sales performance in China.

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According to the EV Sales Blog, these figures contribute to Tesla’s industry-leading performance as the most popular OEM in the EV sector, with a commanding lead over SAIC through Q1.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock surges on Wednesday, but there’s still more room to go

Published

5 days ago

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March 12, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over 7 percent on Wednesday, canceling out some of the losses it has felt this week.

It has been a less-than-ideal start for Tesla in 2025, as the company has wiped out all of its gains felt from the victorious election campaign of President Donald Trump. The stock is down 34 percent so far this year.

The losses have mostly been felt due to reports of decreased demand due to pushback against CEO Elon Musk and his support of President Trump, as well as investor concern over the CEO’s personal use of time between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Tesla itself.

In a note this week from Wedbush, analyst Dan Ives wrote:

“Musk needs to step up as Tesla CEO at this critical juncture. In a nutshell, the word ‘balance’ has been missing with Elon Musk and his ability to run Tesla as CEO….while instead focusing all of his energy and time driving his DOGE initiative within the Trump Administration. Since Trump’s White House 2nd term kicked off in January, we have seen Musk and Trump connected at the hip with Musk essentially living at the White House and Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. There has been little to no sign of Musk at any Tesla factory or manufacturing facility the last two months and perception has become reality for Tesla shares. Trump getting elected President was a huge moment for Musk and Tesla in our view as this will create the fast track for an autonomous federal roadmap…however the DOGE efforts have now intertwined Tesla into this brewing political firestorm.”

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Wednesday’s slight bump for Tesla shares is likely related to the support the company received from President Trump yesterday, who purchased a Model S sedan at the White House and pledged to pay for it with a check.

President Donald Trump buys a Tesla at the White House – Here’s which model he chose

The move was one that signaled a buying spree from high-profile Republicans, including Sean Hannity, among others, who announced their support for Musk and Tesla:

Tesla shares closed at $248.09 on Wednesday, up 7.59%.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull ARK loads up on over $20M in TSLA shares after stock slide

Published

6 days ago

on

March 11, 2025

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla bull ARK Invest loaded up on over $20 million worth of the automaker’s shares on Monday after the company saw its largest slide on the market since late 2020.

Shares dropped over 15 percent on Monday, mostly due to pushback on the stock as CEO Elon Musk heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). His involvement with the U.S. government directly has sent some investors into a predicament over Musk’s dedication to Tesla.

There are also concerns regarding Q1 deliveries, which will be a big indication of where the year could be headed for Tesla.

The Monday slide was the biggest since late 2020 when shares dropped over 21 percent.

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However, the slide presents a massive buying opportunity for investors, especially those who operate ETFs, like ARK. Long term, ARK believes Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be exponentially more expensive, especially leaning on the thesis that Robotaxi and AI/Optimus will translate to major growth in yet another sector for the company.

ARK bolstered its position on $TSLA in its ARKK Innovation ETF with a purchase of 68,164 shares. Tesla is the largest holding in ARKK with over $531 million in value. Tesla makes up exactly 10 percent of the ARKK ETF.

It also bought another 11,154 shares in its ARKQ Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF.

It’s no secret Tesla shares have taken a substantial hit in 2025, especially as the company’s price on Wall Street exploded following President Trump’s successful election campaign last year.

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So far in 2025, Tesla shares are down over 38 percent. They are up nearly 5 percent as of 2:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Even bullish analysts are hoping some focus returns to Tesla on Musk’s part.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note last night following the broad sell off:

“This is a gut check moment for the Tesla bulls (including ourselves) after this massive sell-off in Tesla shares with fears mounting/accelerating. The bears own the Tesla narrative in the near-term as lackluster sales numbers from Europe, China, and the US in January/February along with Musk protests/brand worries have created many concerns.”

He continued:

“While the DOGE/Trump Musk iron clad partnership has created major brand worries for Tesla…..we estimate less than 5% of Tesla sales globally are at risk from these issues despite the global draconian narrative for Musk. Importantly, we expect Musk will better balance his time between DOGE and Tesla/SpaceX over the course of 2025 and some of these distraction issues will fade.”

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk praises Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater for accumulating TSLA stock

Published

1 month ago

on

February 14, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

A recent 13-F filing from legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has revealed that the hedge fund has added over $62 million worth of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) to its portfolio.

Elon Musk has praised the billionaire’s investment in a post on X.

Bridgewater’s TSLA stake:

  • As per Bridgewater’s 13-F filing, it currently holds 153,589 shares of TSLA, which costs $62,025,382.
  • The firm added the TSLA shares in the fourth quarter.
  • Tesla shares gained momentum after its Q3 2024 earnings call, and it only gained more strength after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • At the end of 2024, Tesla shares were up 62%, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
  • Tesla stock is still up 88% over 12 months despite a steep drop over the past month.

A vote of confidence: 

  • Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, so the firm’s stake in TSLA could be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the electric vehicle maker.
  • Elon Musk has praised the firm’s investment. In a post on X, Musk noted that Bridgewater’s investment was a “smart move.”
  • Elon Musk has been quite consistent on his idea that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He emphasized this point during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
  • “I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined,” Musk said.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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