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Tesla has Morgan Stanley taking bullish and bearish stances in China

(Credit: Tesla China)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) automotive operation in China has Morgan Stanley analysts taking bullish and bearish stances. A new note from the Wall Street firms indicates short-term growth and possible electric vehicle sector domination. However, long-term perspectives align with past Morgan Stanley outlooks that hint toward Tesla’s decline and subsequent inferiority in the Chinese market.

Following the news of Tesla vehicles being banned in military or government facilities late last week, Morgan Stanley released a new note that revealed several important metrics that could be affected by the ban. The firm’s short-term outlook seems bullish, especially as it highlights the advantages Tesla holds financially in China and its popularity with Chinese car buyers, who have flocked to the company’s all-electric vehicles since first being delivered in early 2020.

“We estimate well over 50 to 60% of Tesla’s global profitability is currently derived from China,” Morgan Stanley analysts revealed as the first of seven points in the note. Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s Chinese production facility, is currently producing 450,000 vehicles annually, the company said in its most recent Shareholder Deck. While some of those vehicles are being exported to Europe to help supplement the Fremont factory’s production, most of them stay in China to help feed the overwhelming demand that has been sustained through consumer loyalty. Tesla has done a great job of expediting production timeframes to keep up with healthy demand. It surely is helping fuel the company’s profitability, which has spanned through the six previous quarters.

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Additionally, Morgan Stanley stated that it “believes automobiles will transform into a transportation utility, where companies will fight for a winner-take-most network at a regional/national level.”

With Tesla dominating 2020 EV sales in China, mostly in part to the Model 3 that held 11% of the total market share, the company sits in a prime position to dominate the market for years to come. While the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV has outsold the Model 3 for several months, it isn’t easy to compare the two vehicles. Price, range, performance, and luxury are all incomparable because the Model 3 dominates nearly every category except for the price. While the HongGuang Mini EV is more affordable because it is only $4,500, it is undoubtedly a budget vehicle. It has just over 100 miles of range, and standard features, like air conditioning, will run consumers an extra $500.

While some of Morgan Stanley’s new note gave off bullish tones, several points came off bearish, especially one point that seemed to align with analyst Adam Jonas’ prediction that Tesla would not sell a car in China by 2030.

“We forecast Tesla China volume peaking in the year 2027 at just under 900k units and declining from there,” the note said. “Beyond 2030, our implied growth rate and terminal valuation of Tesla’s China business includes a significantly diminished contribution from China.”

In October 2020, Jonas said that Tesla’s raging success in China would come to an end. “We have China sales peaking [in the] middle of the decade and then going down…and then eventually nothing after 2030,” Jonas said to Yahoo Finance. Interestingly, Jonas’s prediction was mostly based on the fact that the U.S. government would likely not want Chinese autonomous vehicles traveling around the country. This situation is extremely similar to the ban China put on Tesla vehicles entering military and government-owned facilities last week.

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Tesla to sell zero cars in China by 2030, Morgan Stanley’s Jonas says

“Can you imagine a Chinese internet of cars autonomous network operating in the streets of Boston in 10 years? Of course not. Wake up. It’s not happening,” Jonas added. “And so this idea that the Chinese aren’t allowed to use AI network machine learning data privacy networks from the state, but it’s okay for us to do [it] there, is just a fallacy in our opinion.”

It seems like a longshot that Tesla will simply dissolve into nothing in China by 2030. However, Jonas believes that rising tensions between the U.S. and China could point toward privacy taking priority, and autonomous vehicles will raise suspicion that they could be used as spy devices. If this were to happen in 9 years, Tesla would lose a considerable chunk of its profitability because of China’s influence on the company’s financials. However, this remains to be seen, and many Tesla bulls believe that the company holds a long future in China that could spell trouble for competing automakers for years to come.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

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Credit: Tesla Mania

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

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Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

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Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

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UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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