Investor's Corner
Tesla has Morgan Stanley taking bullish and bearish stances in China
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) automotive operation in China has Morgan Stanley analysts taking bullish and bearish stances. A new note from the Wall Street firms indicates short-term growth and possible electric vehicle sector domination. However, long-term perspectives align with past Morgan Stanley outlooks that hint toward Tesla’s decline and subsequent inferiority in the Chinese market.
Following the news of Tesla vehicles being banned in military or government facilities late last week, Morgan Stanley released a new note that revealed several important metrics that could be affected by the ban. The firm’s short-term outlook seems bullish, especially as it highlights the advantages Tesla holds financially in China and its popularity with Chinese car buyers, who have flocked to the company’s all-electric vehicles since first being delivered in early 2020.
Tesla and China: 7 Thoughts | Morgan Stanley$TSLA pic.twitter.com/YxuJWFWuWK
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) March 22, 2021
“We estimate well over 50 to 60% of Tesla’s global profitability is currently derived from China,” Morgan Stanley analysts revealed as the first of seven points in the note. Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s Chinese production facility, is currently producing 450,000 vehicles annually, the company said in its most recent Shareholder Deck. While some of those vehicles are being exported to Europe to help supplement the Fremont factory’s production, most of them stay in China to help feed the overwhelming demand that has been sustained through consumer loyalty. Tesla has done a great job of expediting production timeframes to keep up with healthy demand. It surely is helping fuel the company’s profitability, which has spanned through the six previous quarters.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley stated that it “believes automobiles will transform into a transportation utility, where companies will fight for a winner-take-most network at a regional/national level.”
With Tesla dominating 2020 EV sales in China, mostly in part to the Model 3 that held 11% of the total market share, the company sits in a prime position to dominate the market for years to come. While the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV has outsold the Model 3 for several months, it isn’t easy to compare the two vehicles. Price, range, performance, and luxury are all incomparable because the Model 3 dominates nearly every category except for the price. While the HongGuang Mini EV is more affordable because it is only $4,500, it is undoubtedly a budget vehicle. It has just over 100 miles of range, and standard features, like air conditioning, will run consumers an extra $500.
While some of Morgan Stanley’s new note gave off bullish tones, several points came off bearish, especially one point that seemed to align with analyst Adam Jonas’ prediction that Tesla would not sell a car in China by 2030.
“We forecast Tesla China volume peaking in the year 2027 at just under 900k units and declining from there,” the note said. “Beyond 2030, our implied growth rate and terminal valuation of Tesla’s China business includes a significantly diminished contribution from China.”
In October 2020, Jonas said that Tesla’s raging success in China would come to an end. “We have China sales peaking [in the] middle of the decade and then going down…and then eventually nothing after 2030,” Jonas said to Yahoo Finance. Interestingly, Jonas’s prediction was mostly based on the fact that the U.S. government would likely not want Chinese autonomous vehicles traveling around the country. This situation is extremely similar to the ban China put on Tesla vehicles entering military and government-owned facilities last week.
Tesla to sell zero cars in China by 2030, Morgan Stanley’s Jonas says
“Can you imagine a Chinese internet of cars autonomous network operating in the streets of Boston in 10 years? Of course not. Wake up. It’s not happening,” Jonas added. “And so this idea that the Chinese aren’t allowed to use AI network machine learning data privacy networks from the state, but it’s okay for us to do [it] there, is just a fallacy in our opinion.”
It seems like a longshot that Tesla will simply dissolve into nothing in China by 2030. However, Jonas believes that rising tensions between the U.S. and China could point toward privacy taking priority, and autonomous vehicles will raise suspicion that they could be used as spy devices. If this were to happen in 9 years, Tesla would lose a considerable chunk of its profitability because of China’s influence on the company’s financials. However, this remains to be seen, and many Tesla bulls believe that the company holds a long future in China that could spell trouble for competing automakers for years to come.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to hold its Earnings Call for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday, and there are a lot of interesting things that are swirling around in terms of speculation from investors.
With the company’s executives, including CEO Elon Musk, answering a handful of questions that investors submit through the Say platform, fans want to know a lot of things about a lot of things.
These five questions come from Retail Investors, who are normal, everyday shareholders:
- When will we have the Optimus v3 reveal? When will Optimus production start, since we ended the Model S and Model X production earlier than mid-year? What’s the expected Optimus production rate exiting this year? What are the initial targeted skills?
- What milestones are you targeting for unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin this year, and how will that drive recurring revenue?
- How will Hardware 3 cars reach Unsupervised Full Self-Driving?
- When do you expect Unsupervised Full Self-Driving to reach customer cars?
- When will Robotaxi expand past its current limited rollout?
Additionally, these are currently the three questions that are slated to be answered by Institutional Firms, which also answer a handful of questions during the call:
- Now that FSD has been approved in the Netherlands and is expected to launch across Europe this summer, can you discuss your Robotaxi strategy for the region?
- What enabled you to finish the AI5 tapeout early and were there any changes to the original vision? Last week, Elon said AI5 will go into Optimus and the Supercomputer, but one month ago said it would go into the Robotaxi. Has AI5 been dropped from the vehicle roadmap?
- Given the recent NHTSA incident filings, can you update us on the Robotaxi safety data? If safety validation remains the primary bottleneck, why not deploy thousands of vehicles to accelerate the removal of the safety driver?
The questions range through every current Tesla project, including FSD expansion and Optimus. However, many of the answers we will get will likely be repetitive answers we’ve heard in the past.
This is especially pertinent when the questions about when Unsupervised FSD will reach customer cars: we know Musk will say that it will happen this year. Is Tesla capable of that? Maybe. But a more transparent answer that is more revealing of a true timeline would be appreciated.
Hardware 3 owners are anxiously awaiting the arrival of FSD v14 Lite, which was promised to them last year for a release sometime this year.
The Earnings Call is set to take place on Wednesday at market close.
Elon Musk
Tesla FSD in Europe vs. US: It’s not what you think
Tesla FSD is approved in the Netherlands, but the European version differs from what US drivers use.
On April 10, 2026, the Dutch vehicle authority RDW granted Tesla the first European type approval for Full Self-Driving Supervised, making the Netherlands the first country on the continent to authorize Tesla’s semi-autonomous system for customer use on public roads.
As Teslarati reported, the RDW approval followed 18 months of testing, more than 1.6 million kilometers driven on EU roads, 13,000 customer ride-alongs, and documentation covering over 400 compliance requirements. Tesla Europe had been running public demo drives through cities like Amsterdam and Eindhoven since early 2026, giving passengers their first experience of the system on European streets.
The European version of FSD is not the same software US drivers use. The RDW’s own statement is direct, noting that the software versions and functionalities in the US and Europe “are therefore not comparable one-to-one.” We’ve compile a table below that captures the most significant differences between US-based Tesla FSD vs. European Tesla FSD that’s based on what regulators and Tesla have publicly confirmed.
| Feature | FSD US | FSD Europe (Netherlands) |
| Regulatory framework | Self-certification, post-market oversight | Pre-market type approval required (UN R-171 + Article 39) |
| Hands requirement | Hands-off permitted on highway | Hands must be available to take over immediately |
| Auto turning from stop lights | Available — navigates intersections, turns, and traffic signals autonomously | Available in EU build — confirmed in Amsterdam demo footage handling unprotected turns and signalized intersections |
| Driving modes | Multiple profiles including a more aggressive “Mad Max” mode | EU build is more conservative by default and errs on the side of restraint when it cannot confirm the limit |
| Summon | Available — Smart Summon navigates parking lots to driver | Status unclear — not confirmed as part of the RDW-approved feature set; urban FSD approval targeted separately for 2027 |
| Driver monitoring | Camera-based eye tracking | Stricter continuous monitoring with more frequent intervention alerts |
| Software version | FSD v14.3 | EU-specific builds that must be separately validated by RDW |
| Geographic restriction | US, Canada, China, Mexico, Australia, NZ, South Korea | Netherlands only; EU-wide vote pending summer 2026 |
| Subscription price | $99/month | €99/month |
| Full urban FSD scope | Available | Partial — separate urban application planned for 2027 |
The approval comes as Tesla is under real pressure to grow FSD subscriptions globally. Musk’s 2025 CEO compensation package, approved by shareholders, includes a milestone requiring 10 million active FSD subscriptions as one condition for his stock awards to vest. Tesla hit one million subscriptions during its Q4 2025 earnings call, which is a meaningful start, but still a long way from the target. Opening Europe as a market for subscriptions, rather than just hardware sales, directly accelerates that number.
Tesla has said it anticipates EU-wide recognition of the Dutch approval during summer 2026, which would extend FSD access to Germany, France, and other major markets through a mutual recognition process without each country repeating the full 18-month review. That timeline is Tesla’s projection, not a confirmed regulatory outcome. As Musk acknowledged at Davos in January 2026, “We hope to get Supervised Full Self-Driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month.”
Elon Musk
Tesla Supercharger for Business exposes jaw-dropping ROI gap between best and worst locations
Tesla’s new Supercharger for Business calculator reveals an eye-opening all-in cost and location-based ROI projections.
Tesla has launched an online calculator for its Supercharger for Business program, giving property owners their first transparent look at what it really costs to install Superchargers on site and what kind of return they can expect.
The program itself launched in September 2025, allowing businesses to purchase and operate Supercharger hardware on their own property while Tesla handles installation, maintenance, software, and 24/7 driver support. As Teslarati reported at launch, hosts also get their logo placed on the chargers and their location integrated into Tesla’s in-car navigation, meaning drivers are actively routed there. The stalls are open to all EVs, not just Teslas.
We launched Supercharger for Business in 2025 to help companies get charging right. We found simplicity and transparency to be a problem in this industry.
We’re now sharing pricing and a financial calculator to help make informed decisions. The goal is to accelerate investments,…
— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) April 8, 2026
The new online calculator, announced by Tesla on Wednesday with the note that “simplicity and transparency” have been a problem in the industry, lets any business enter a U.S. address and get a real cost and revenue model. A standard 8-stall V4 Supercharger site runs approximately $500,000 in hardware and $55,000 per post for installation, bringing an all-in price just shy of $1 million. Tesla charges a flat $0.10 per kWh fee to cover software, billing, and network operations. Businesses set their own retail price and keep the margin above that fee.
Taking a look at Tesla’s Supercharger for Business online calculator, we can see that ROI is not uniform, and the gap between a strong location and a poor one can stretch the breakeven point by several years.
The biggest driver is foot traffic and how long people stay. A busy rest station, hotel, or outlet mall brings in repeat visitors who need to charge while they’re already stopped, pushing utilization numbers higher and shortening payback time.
Tesla Supercharger for Business ROI calculator
Local electricity rates matter just as much on the cost side. Markets like California carry some of the highest commercial electricity rates in the country, which eats into the margin between what a host pays per kWh and what they charge drivers. At the same time, dense urban areas with high EV adoption tend to support higher retail charging prices, which can offset that cost if demand is strong enough. Weather also plays a role. Cold climates reduce battery efficiency and increase charging frequency, but they can also suppress utilization in winter months if drivers avoid stopping in exposed outdoor locations. Suburban and rural sites face a different problem: lower baseline EV traffic, which means a site with cheaper power and lower operating costs can still take longer to pay back simply because the stalls sit idle more often. Tesla’s calculator uses real fleet data to pre-fill utilization estimates by ZIP code, so businesses can run their specific address against these variables rather than relying on averages.
The program has seen real adoption. Wawa, already the largest host of Tesla Superchargers with over 2,100 stalls across 223 locations, opened its first fully owned and branded site in Alachua, Florida earlier this year. Francis Energy of Oklahoma and the city of Alpharetta, Georgia have also deployed branded stations through the program, as Teslarati covered in January.
Tesla now exceeds 80,000 Supercharger stalls worldwide, and the calculator makes the economic case for accelerating that number through private investment rather than company-owned sites alone.
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