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Tesla crushes short thesis on declining Model 3 demand

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Tesla announced during its Q2 2018 earnings call that interest and demand for the Model 3 remains strong, particularly from customers who are not part of the company’s initial line of reservation holders. The update follows months of speculation that the rollout of the Model 3 has been anything but smooth. Since starting production of the electric car, Tesla has faced difficulty after difficulty, spurred by aggressive timelines announced by CEO Elon Musk and bottlenecks that emerged from its production lines. When the Model 3 was released, Elon Musk boldly declared that Tesla would aim to manufacture 5,000 of the vehicles per week by the end of 2017. That goal proved elusive until the end of Q2 2018, and only because Tesla adopted a “burst build” strategy.

While Tesla managed to hit its target of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of Q2 2018, doubts from the company’s critics about the demand for the electric car emerged. As noted by Elon Musk during the recently held earnings call, Tesla actually sustained the Model 3’s 5,000/week production rate for multiple weeks in July. With the company producing more vehicles, Tesla began stockpiling more of the finished Model 3 in several lots such as the Burbank Airport while the cars waited for delivery.

Lots filled with the Tesla Model 3 ahead of Q2 2018’s end. [Credit: Tesla Bull/Twitter]

Viewed by the company’s critics, the lots filled with vehicles were proof that demand for the Model 3 was declining, and that the cars indicated that customers were opting out of deliveries due to poor quality. Latrilife, a Tesla critic, even announced on Twitter that Tesla’s Burbank Airport lot is under 24/7 surveillance. Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino also published a note recently stating that Model 3 demand appears to be waning based on social media activity around the electric car.

According to Tesla on its recently held earnings call, however, interest in the Model 3 is alive and well. While responding to a question from Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein, Tesla worldwide head of sales Robin Ren stated the company now sees more orders for the AWD dual motor and Performance variants combined compared to the Long Range RWD Model 3. Perhaps even more importantly, Tesla has also been seeing interest in the Model 3 coming from individuals who are not part of the electric car’s list of reservation holders.

“Since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we have seen an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. This is something that we found super exciting. These are the people who have no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 is available to order. Many of them requested test drives.

“Since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the US alone. These people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited, and they decide to order the car. We believe the strong demand, especially from non-reservation holders, will continue as we increase production.”

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The Model 3 showcased at the 2018 Goodwood Festival of Speed. [Credit: Dean Scott]

Tesla also noted that Model 3 customers have been trading in vehicles that are not in the electric car’s segment. The Model 3 competes in the midsize luxury sedan market, but the Top 5 vehicles the electric car’s customers have been trading in are the Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, and the Nissan Leaf. These vehicles, save for the BMW 3 Series, are not luxury sedans at all. Instead, they belong to a more affordable segment in the mainstream auto market. This means that as Tesla produces more of the electric car, even customers who drive more affordable vehicles are considering the purchase of a Model 3, a car that is more expensive.

Part of this could be due, of course, due to Tesla’s promised $35,000 Standard Range RWD version of the Model 3, which is expected to start production in 6-9 months. At its entry-level price, the Model 3 has the potential to take a big chunk of the midsize sedan market, possibly even taking on mainstays such as the Toyota Camry. Even without its base model, however, the electric car is still a compelling purchase, considering that it is one of the only vehicles on the road that is set to get better over time, thanks to Tesla’s trademark over-the-air updates. And that, for some customers, is worth the extra investment.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings call

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q3 2025 update letter, which was released after the closing bell on October 22, 2025.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Results

As could be seen in Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.39 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $28.095 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $1.37 billion.

Tesla’s total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, while operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6 billion. This means that for Q3 2025, Tesla’s had a 5.8% operating margin. Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments was $41.6 billion by the end of the third quarter.

Earnings call updates

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.

16:25 CT – Good day to everyone, and welcome to another Tesla earnings call live blog. The Q3 2025 Update Letter seemed to be on the quieter side, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Tesla’s $4 billion free cash flow, an all-time high.

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Now we just have to see how the earnings call will go.

16:30 CT – Looks like the earnings call’s livestream is up. It hasn’t started yet, but the music’s on. Here’s the livestream:

16:33 CT – One of the most fun things about Tesla earnings call coverages is that you don’t really know what type of Elon Musk you’re gonna get. The questions from investors and analysts are always fun too.

16:35 CT – And here we go. Travis Axelrod takes the floor and introduces Tesla’s executives.

16:36 CT – Elon’s opening remarks begin. He says Tesla is at a critical point because real-world AI is imminent. He states that he believes Tesla has the highest intelligence density. “It’s gonna be like a shockwave,” Elon said, highlighting that there are millions of cars out there that could become full self-driving with a simple software update.

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16:38 CT – With Tesla achieving clarity on Unsupervised FSD, Musk stated that he feels “confident in expanding Tesla’s production.” He also noted that Tesla Energy is rising quickly, especially with products like the Powerwall and the Megapack. “We see the potential there for Tesla battery packs to improve the energy output per year of any given grid, the US or otherwise.”

16:40 CT – Elon also reiterated his prediction that Tesla Optimus could be the largest product in the world. A good reason for this is the fact that Tesla has scale, Musk stated. Musk also stated that it’s easy for users in the United States to test out FSD V14 for themselves. He also mentioned that Tesla is currently hard at work with Megapack 4.

“We look forward to unveiling Optimus V3 in Q1. I think it will be quite remarkable,” Musk said, adding that V3 will almost seem like a person in a robot suit.

16:45 CT – Musk summed up his opening remarks with a comment on Tesla’s updated mission.

“In conclusion, we’re excited about the updated mission of Tesla, which is sustainable abundance. We’re going beyond sustainable energy. We believe that with Optimus and self-driving, we can actually create a world where there is no poverty, where everyone has access to the finest medical care.

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“Optimus will be an incredible surgeon. Imagine if everyone had access to an incredible surgeon. I think we’re headed to sustainable abundance, and I’m excited to work with the Tesla team to make that happen,” Musk said, summing up.

16:48 CT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja discussed the company’s rollout of its expanded Model Y lineup such as the Model Y L, as well as the advantages of the Robotaxi network. He also confirmed that Tesla is looking to secure approvals for FSD tests in several areas across the globe.

He also discussed Tesla’s regulatory credits. “”While regulatory credits declined sequentially, we entered into new contracts and delivered on previous contracts,” he said.

16:54 CT – Investor questions are asked about demand for Megapack and Powerwall. Tesla noted that Tesla is seeing a lot of interest and demand for Megapack and its related products. There is also a surge in demand for residential batteries.

Looks like the Tesla Solar Roof is coming alive as well.

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16:59 CT – A question about the challenges of Optimus’ rollout was asked. Elon Musk noted that bringing Optimus to market would not be a walk in the park. It will be a very difficult endeavor. “It’s an incredibly difficult thing,” Musk said, adding that the hands of Optimus are very difficult to design and produce due to its complexity.

Tesla is really putting a ton of work on Optimus’ hands, likely because the robot will need to be very dexterous to be useful in both residential and industrial applications. He noted that for Optimus to be successful, Tesla must really be vertically integrated.

Elon also mentioned that Optimus is one of the reasons behind his goals with his 2025 compensation plan. He needs control of Tesla if the company is building a literal robot army.

17:05 CT – A question about Tesla’s chip deal with Samsung. Elon noted that he has nothing but good things to say about Samsung. He then clarified that Tesla will be focusing both TSMC and Samsung on AI5.

“The AI5 chip design by Tesla is an amazing design. I have spent every weekend for the last few months with the chip design team working with AI5,” Musk said. “By some metrics, the AI5 chip will be 40x better than the AI4 chip.” This is because the hardware is designed for Tesla’s software stack.

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There is also a lot of efficiencies and deletions that have been implemented on AI5. “This is a beautiful chip,” Musk said, reiterating that both Samsung and TSMC will be producing AI5. Tesla wants an oversupply of AI5 chips. If there’s an oversupply, Musk said that the chips could just be used for training in Tesla’s data center.

17:09 CT – A question was asked about Tesla abandoning HW3 was asked. The CFO stated that Tesla is not abandoning HW3. “We will definitely take care of you guys,” he said, adding that he himself is driving a HW3 car. Tesla executives also noted that the company is developing a V14 “Lite” for HW3 cars.

17:13 CT – A question about the Tesla Semi’s autonomy was asked. Tesla noted that things are progressing with the Semi program. Analyst questions now begin. First up is Wolfe Research, which asked about Elon’s comment about Tesla now focusing on volume with FSD now developed.

Elon Musk responded that Tesla’s capacity today is not at 3 million cars yet, but Tesla can probably achieve that level in 24 months or less. “We’re gonna expand production as fast as we can, and as fast as our suppliers can keep up with it,” he said.

He added that the Cybercab will be a big project since it’s a your de force of engineering optimization due to its driverless nature. He also stated that Cybercab production will start in Q2 2026.

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17:21 CT – Barclays asked about markets that are outside of Tesla’s core competencies. Elon noted that Tesla had zero core competency when it started. He highlighted that Tesla today is still a bunch of startups that are working together. He did also state that “Optimus at scale is an infinite money glitch” since it could 5X a person’s productivity.

17:27 CT – Lightshed asks about the Robotaxi program and the removal of safety drivers in Austin by year end. Musk noted that Tesla will be very cautious with FSD’s rollout. He noted that Tesla will be paranoid about safety. He noted that Tesla typically rolls out its FSD updates with safety at the forefront, so first builds of a major release tend to be safe but not as smooth.

“This car will feel like a living creature,” Musk reiterated, adding that Teslas will eventually be able to find parking spots on their own intelligently.

17:34 CT – Oppenheimer asked about the timeline of Optimus production. Musk noted that the hardware design of Optimus will not be frozen even after the humanoid robot starts its production. “We’ll have a production-intent prototype ready to show in Q1,” Musk said, adding that hopefully, Optimus will enter production late next year.

17:37 CT – Questions for this earnings call are done, and in closing, the CFO urged shareholders to vote on the Board’s recommendations. Tesla’s future depends on it.

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17:41 CT – And that wraps up Tesla’s third quarter 2025 earnings call! Thank you so much for following along as we covered this event. Until the next time!

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings results

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q3 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, October 22, 2025. 

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products. 

Tesla’s Q3 2025 results

As could be seen in Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.39 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $28.095 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $1.37 billion.

In comparison, FactSet consensus expects Tesla to post earnings per share of around $0.56, down 22% from Q3 2024’s $0.72 per share. Tesla’s revenue is forecasted to rise 5.4% to $26.54 billion, as noted in an Investor.com report.

On the other hand, Sharp consensus, which tracks analyst revision trends, predicts Tesla to post earnings of $0.57 per share and revenue totaling $28.31 billion.

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Other key results

Tesla highlighted the following Q3 results in its Update Letter.

As per Tesla, it is stil profitable with $1.6 billion GAAP operating income, $1.4 billion GAAP net income, and $1.8 billion non-GAAP net income. By the end of the third quarter, Tesla had an operating cash flow of $6.2 billion and record free cash flow of nearly $4.0 billion.

Tesla’s total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, while operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6 billion. This means that for Q3 2025, Tesla’s had a 5.8% operating margin. Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments were at $41.6 billion by the end of the third quarter.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter

TSLA-Q3-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez

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Tesla investors want answers to these five questions during Q3 Earnings

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to report its earnings for the third quarter of 2025 this afternoon. Investors are looking for answers regarding the Robotaxi launch, energy division, potential future vehicle releases, Optimus, and demand stimulation without the tax credit.

Using the investor platform Say, Tesla allows investors to ask questions for the earnings call.

Tesla Q3 2025 earnings: What analysts expect

These are the top five questions that have been asked and voted for by investors of the company, and what we think about them:

  • What are the latest Robotaxi metrics (fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates), and when will safety drivers be removed? What are the obstacles still preventing unsupervised FSD from being deployed to customer vehicles?
    • What we think: Tesla should release some metrics about Robotaxi operation, but it has been cryptic about fleet size and other statistics in the past. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk said Safety Drivers should be removed ‘by the end of the year,’ and we imagine this will be reiterated during the call. Regarding Unsupervised FSD, Tesla has stated that safety is its priority moving forward with the FSD rollout and Robotaxi as well.

 

  • What is demand/backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, Solar, or energy storage systems? With the current AI boom, is Tesla planning to supply power to other hyperscalers?
    • What we think: This is perhaps the only question of the five that Tesla will be totally forthcoming with, as it usually does not reveal vehicle plans or data on these earnings calls. However, it will be interesting to see if the company has any plans to supplement the increasing AI plans with its energy products. Energy falls under the radar with a lot of its achievements, so it really could be a major focus of this call if this question gets answered.

 

  • What are the plans for new car models? Will Tesla build compact car models leveraging the unboxed Cybercab platform? Will Tesla build a traditional SUV and pickup truck on the Cybertruck platform?
    • What we think: Tesla does not unveil or release plans about projects on earnings calls, so we doubt there will be much color here from executives. Considering Tesla has put so much weight on autonomy in the U.S., we’re not necessarily convinced it will plan to do much more than Cybercab, and SUV and pickup trucks will likely be built on a different platform as well, if they’re offered at all. Musk isn’t sure about bringing the Model Y L to the U.S. market due to the “advent of self-driving.”

 

  • What are the present challenges in bringing Optimus to market, considering app control software, engineering hardware, training general mobility models, training task-specific models, training voice models, implementing manufacturing, and establishing supply chains?
    • What we think: This will likely be where Tesla teases the capabilities of Optimus Gen 3, and comes up with some sort of rough date where it could show off the new design. Tesla has been using Optimus in its factories and other internal operations, so it’s likely we’ll hear some stories about that as well. Tesla is looking to refine the Optimus design so it is useful and capable in residential applications, and its hands are likely the biggest bottleneck as they are arguably the most crucial part of the product.

 

  • Can you talk about demand stimulation avenues beyond affordability? Given the state of global politics, can Tesla’s brand elevate above the divisiveness and return global perception back to our inspirational roots of ludicrous performance, environmental good, and superior safety?
    • What we think: Tesla is going to flex its new Standard offerings now, and the company has been transparent that Musk’s political involvement will wind down in a timely manner, according to the proxy it released when it revealed his pay package. 
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