Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes short thesis on declining Model 3 demand
Tesla announced during its Q2 2018 earnings call that interest and demand for the Model 3 remains strong, particularly from customers who are not part of the company’s initial line of reservation holders. The update follows months of speculation that the rollout of the Model 3 has been anything but smooth. Since starting production of the electric car, Tesla has faced difficulty after difficulty, spurred by aggressive timelines announced by CEO Elon Musk and bottlenecks that emerged from its production lines. When the Model 3 was released, Elon Musk boldly declared that Tesla would aim to manufacture 5,000 of the vehicles per week by the end of 2017. That goal proved elusive until the end of Q2 2018, and only because Tesla adopted a “burst build” strategy.
While Tesla managed to hit its target of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of Q2 2018, doubts from the company’s critics about the demand for the electric car emerged. As noted by Elon Musk during the recently held earnings call, Tesla actually sustained the Model 3’s 5,000/week production rate for multiple weeks in July. With the company producing more vehicles, Tesla began stockpiling more of the finished Model 3 in several lots such as the Burbank Airport while the cars waited for delivery.
Viewed by the company’s critics, the lots filled with vehicles were proof that demand for the Model 3 was declining, and that the cars indicated that customers were opting out of deliveries due to poor quality. Latrilife, a Tesla critic, even announced on Twitter that Tesla’s Burbank Airport lot is under 24/7 surveillance. Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino also published a note recently stating that Model 3 demand appears to be waning based on social media activity around the electric car.
According to Tesla on its recently held earnings call, however, interest in the Model 3 is alive and well. While responding to a question from Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein, Tesla worldwide head of sales Robin Ren stated the company now sees more orders for the AWD dual motor and Performance variants combined compared to the Long Range RWD Model 3. Perhaps even more importantly, Tesla has also been seeing interest in the Model 3 coming from individuals who are not part of the electric car’s list of reservation holders.
“Since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we have seen an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. This is something that we found super exciting. These are the people who have no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 is available to order. Many of them requested test drives.
“Since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the US alone. These people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited, and they decide to order the car. We believe the strong demand, especially from non-reservation holders, will continue as we increase production.”
Tesla also noted that Model 3 customers have been trading in vehicles that are not in the electric car’s segment. The Model 3 competes in the midsize luxury sedan market, but the Top 5 vehicles the electric car’s customers have been trading in are the Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, and the Nissan Leaf. These vehicles, save for the BMW 3 Series, are not luxury sedans at all. Instead, they belong to a more affordable segment in the mainstream auto market. This means that as Tesla produces more of the electric car, even customers who drive more affordable vehicles are considering the purchase of a Model 3, a car that is more expensive.
Part of this could be due, of course, due to Tesla’s promised $35,000 Standard Range RWD version of the Model 3, which is expected to start production in 6-9 months. At its entry-level price, the Model 3 has the potential to take a big chunk of the midsize sedan market, possibly even taking on mainstays such as the Toyota Camry. Even without its base model, however, the electric car is still a compelling purchase, considering that it is one of the only vehicles on the road that is set to get better over time, thanks to Tesla’s trademark over-the-air updates. And that, for some customers, is worth the extra investment.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.
JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.
Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.
Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025
The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.
The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”
JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.
There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.
JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.
Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.
Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days.
Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025.
Benchmark’s estimates
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.
“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.
Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.
Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds
Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.
“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.
Tesla plant manager tips off affordable model production
Three things Tesla needs to improve with Full Self-Driving v14 release
Elon Musk teases previously unknown Tesla Optimus capability
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoTesla FSD V14 set for early wide release next week: Elon Musk
-
News1 week agoElon Musk gives update on Tesla Optimus progress
-
News2 weeks agoTesla has a new first with its Supercharger network
-
News2 weeks agoTesla job postings seem to show next surprise market entry
-
News2 weeks agoTesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks agoTesla gets new Street-high price target with high hopes for autonomy domination
-
Lifestyle1 week ago500-mile test proves why Tesla Model Y still humiliates rivals in Europe
-
News1 week agoTesla Giga Berlin’s water consumption has achieved the unthinkable