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Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla Cybertruck production to hit 100k/year in 2025

Credit: cybertruckaddicts/Instagram

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Morgan Stanley forecasted that Tesla would produce just under 100,000 Cybertrucks by FY 2025 in a report about 6 key considerations that mattered to the EV startup.

“We forecast 1,000 units of Cybertruck in FY21, ramping to 20k in FY22, 50k in FY23 and just under 100k in FY25,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a recent report.

To some TSLA investors, Morgan Stanley’s estimates might be incredibly conservative. During Tesla’s 2019 Q4 earnings call, Elon Musk hinted that the demand for the Cybertruck hit levels that the company had never seen before, which means a lot considering the demand for the Model 3 at the time.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1377023886152368130?s=20

“I have never seen actually such a level of demand at this–we’ve never seen anything like it basically. I think we will make as about as many as we can sell for many years. So–as many–we’ll sell as many as we can make, it’s going to be pretty nuts,” Musk said about the Cybertruck.

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Tesla has not stated its target annual output for Cybertruck production yet. It is currently working on the construction of Gigafactory Texas, where the first Cybertrucks will be built. It may be difficult for some to justify Morgan Stanley’s production estimates for the Cybertruck partly because Giga Texas is also known as Tesla’s Cybertruck Factory.

Tesla seems to have big plans for Giga Texas. A portion of the facility will be dedicated to the Cybertruck’s production. Producing 100K in one year would mean Tesla was building less than 2,000 Cybertruck vehicles per week by 2025, about four years through its production at Giga Texas.

Ford produces over 1,000 trucks per day, plant manager Debbie Manzano told the Detroit Free Press last year. Manzano oversees a Ford F-150 assembly line which operates seven days a week.

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla Cybercab ramps Robotaxi public street testing as vehicle enters mass production queue

Recent sightings on public roads and growing fleet activity at Giga Texas signal Tesla’s accelerating push toward the Cybercab’s commercial launch.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted in San Jose, CA testing on public roads with Robotaxi validation equipment [Credit: Nic Cruz Patane via X]

Tesla Cybercab is being spotted with increasing frequency both on public roads and across the grounds of Gigafactory Texas, suggesting that the company’s road testing and validation program is ramping meaningfully ahead of mass production.

A total of 25 Cybercab units were recently observed across three separate locations at Giga Texas by drone observer Joe Tegtmeyer — with 14 metallic gold units parked in a tight formation outside the factory exit, nine more at the crash testing facility undergoing structural and safety validations, and two additional units at the west end-of-line area for final checks.

The activity on public roads is just as telling. The Cybercab was spotted testing on public roads for the first time last October, near Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California, marking a significant development in the vehicle’s progression toward commercial readiness. As expected at that early stage, a safety driver was present in the seat.

Since then, sightings have only become more frequent. Community observers on X have posted fresh footage of Cybercabs navigating public streets in Silicon Valley, with each new clip adding to a growing body of evidence that Tesla’s validation efforts are well underway. The production backdrop supports the momentum. Tesla’s production line at Giga Texas moved into a higher volume early in March, representing what observers are calling the largest single-day grouping of Cybercabs seen to date.

Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads in Los Gatos, CA – March 10, 2026 [Credit: Osman Sarood via X]

CEO Elon Musk has been clear-eyed about what to expect from the ramp. “It’s an all-new product and radical redesign of car manufacturing to achieve ~5X higher production rate, which means the output S-curve will be very slow in the beginning, but ultimately super high volume,” Musk wrote on X. “For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

Tesla ramps Cybercab test manufacturing ahead of mass production

Musk has also stated that Tesla is aiming for at least 2 million Cybercab units per year across more than one factory, with a potential ceiling of 4 million annually.

With testing activity on public roads accelerating and factory output visibly increasing week over week, the coming months at Giga Texas are set to be pivotal in determining how quickly Tesla can bring the Cybercab from validation to volume.

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Tesla opens Supercharging Network to other EVs in new country

Tesla’s Supercharging infrastructure is the most robust in the world, and it has done a wonderful job of keeping things up and running for the millions of owners out there. As it expanded access to non-Tesla EVs a couple years back, it has still managed to keep things pretty steady, although the need for more charging is apparent.

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Kia EV6, EV9 and Niro Owners Gain Access to Over 21,500 Tesla Superchargers

Tesla has started opening its Supercharging Network, which is the most expansive in the world, to other EVs in a new country for the first time.

After expanding its Supercharging offerings to other car companies in the United States a few years ago, Tesla is still making the move in other markets, as it aims to make EV ownership easier for everyone, regardless of what manufacturer a consumer chose to purchase from.

Tesla’s Supercharging infrastructure is the most robust in the world, and it has done a wonderful job of keeping things up and running for the millions of owners out there. As it expanded access to non-Tesla EVs a couple years back, it has still managed to keep things pretty steady, although the need for more charging is apparent.

Now, Tesla is expanding access to the Supercharger Network to non-Tesla EVs in Malaysia. The automaker just opened up a charging stie at the Pavilion KL Mall in Kuala Lumpur to non-Tesla owners, giving them eight additional Superchargers to utilize with a charging speed of up to 250 kW.

Tesla is also opening up the four-Supercharger site in Shah Alam, a four-Supercharger site at the IOI City Mall, and a six-Supercharger site in Gamuda Cove Township.

Electrive first reported the opening of these Superchargers in Malaysia.

The initiative from Tesla helps make EV ownership much simpler for those who only have access to third-party charging solutions or at-home charging. While at-home charging is the most advantageous, it is not an end-all solution as every driver will eventually need to grab some range on the road.

Tesla has been offering its Superchargers to non-Tesla EVs in the United States since 2024, as Ford became the first company to gain access to the massive network early that year when CEO Elon Musk and Ford frontman Jim Farley announced it together. Since then, Tesla has offered its chargers to nearly every EV maker, as companies like Rivian and Lucid, and even legacy car companies like General Motors have gained access.

It’s best for everyone to have the ability to use Tesla Superchargers, but there are of course some growing pains.

Charging cables are built to cater to Tesla owners, so pull-in Superchargers are most advantageous for non-Tesla EVs currently, but the company’s V4 Superchargers, which are not as plentiful in the U.S. quite yet, do enable easier reach for those vehicles.

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Tesla Semi expands pilot program to Texas logistics firm: here’s what they said

Mone said the Tesla Semi it put into its fleet for this test recorded 1.64 kWh per mile efficiency, beating Tesla’s official 1.7 kWh per mile target and delivering a massive leap over conventional diesel trucks.

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Credit: Mone Transport

Tesla has expanded its Semi pilot program to a new region, as it has made it to Texas to be tested by logistics from Mone Transport. With the Semi entering production this year, Tesla is getting even more valuable data regarding the vehicle and its efficiency, which will help companies cut expenditures.

Mone Transport operates in Texas and on the Southern border, and it specializes in cross-border U.S.-Mexico freight operations. After completing some rigorous testing, Mone shared public results, which stand out when compared to efficiency metrics offered by diesel vehicles.

“Mone Transport recently had the opportunity to put the Tesla Semi to the test, and we’re thrilled with the results! Over 4,700 miles of operations at 1.64 kWh/mile in our Texas operation. We’re committed to providing zero-emission transportation to our customers!” the company said in a post on X.

Mone said the Tesla Semi it put into its fleet for this test recorded 1.64 kWh per mile efficiency, beating Tesla’s official 1.7 kWh per mile target and delivering a massive leap over conventional diesel trucks.

Comparable Class 8 diesel semis, typically achieving 6-7 miles per gallon, consume roughly 5.5 kWh per mile in energy-equivalent terms, meaning the Semi uses three to four times less energy while also producing zero tailpipe emissions.

Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries

The performance of the Tesla Semi in Mone Transport’s testing aligns with data from other participants in the pilot program. ArcBest’s ABF Freight Division logged 4,494 miles over three weeks in 2025, averaging 1.55 kWh per mile across varied routes, including a grueling 7,200-foot Donner Pass climb. The truck “generally matched the performance of its diesel counterparts,” the carrier said.

PepsiCo, which operates the largest known Semi fleet, recorded 1.7 kWh per mile in North American Council for Freight Efficiency testing. Additional pilots showed similar gains: DHL hit 1.72 kWh per mile, and Saia achieved 1.73 kWh per mile.

These metrics underscore the Semi’s ability to slash operating costs through superior efficiency, lower maintenance, and zero-emission operation. As charging infrastructure scales and production ramps toward 2026 targets, participants like Mone Transport are proving electric semis can seamlessly integrate into freight networks, accelerating the industry’s shift to sustainable, high-performance trucking.

Tesla continues to prep for a more widespread presence of the Semi in the coming months as it recently launched the first public Semi Megacharger site in Los Angeles. It is working on building out infrastructure for regional runs on the West Coast initially, with plans to expand this to the other end of the country in the coming years.

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