Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.