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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand
The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.
Thank you, Tesla.
As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.
And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.
“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”
Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory
Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.
Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”
Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”
If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.
Tesla has officially shown that it is eyeing two new states for Robotaxi operation in the U.S., as it hopes to add the new areas to its ever-growing list of places where the suite is either active or in the testing phase.
Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.
In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.
Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.
Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion
Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.
These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.
It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.
So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.
Tesla’s advertising strategy has taken a drastic turn as the company’s upcoming Shareholder Meeting will feature perhaps the most crucial vote in its history: the approval of CEO Elon Musk’s new pay package.
For years, the issue of Tesla’s advertising and marketing strategy has been a major point of conversation for investors in fans. It seems to be split right down the middle, with half wanting Tesla to set aside some money for advertising. The other half, just the opposite.
Tesla has been transparent that the money it would spend on advertising, marketing, and public relations is better set aside for the development of future products.
However, it has recently adopted a different tone in advertising, pushing some commercials on social media platforms like X and Instagram.
For the first time, an ad was seen on streaming services like Paramount+, but it wasn’t promoting Tesla’s products directly. Instead, it was more of a message for shareholders to vote on Musk’s pay package, something Tesla feels is a necessity:
Well this is a first. Tesla is running paid ads on Paramount+ encouraging people to vote their $TSLA shares ahead of the annual shareholder meeting on November 6th.
“Tesla is on the precipice of its next wave of transformations growth, and we need your support; We urge you to… pic.twitter.com/FTo5eFQJRZ
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 14, 2025
“The future of Tesla is in your hands,” the ad reads at the end. It seems as if Tesla is taking whatever steps it needs to accomplish the task of getting Musk a new pay package and retaining him as its CEO.
On September 5, Tesla officially outlined its plans for a CEO Performance Award for Musk. It would require him to lift Tesla’s market capitalization to about $8.5 trillion, up from the $1.36 trillion it sits at today.
Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation
It is obvious that Tesla is really hoping to get the pay package passed and is willing to shift some of its budget to encourage shareholders to vote.
However, there are some interesting perspectives on the move, and it’s sort of strange to see Tesla not advertising its vehicles or products, but only its pay package that would get its CEO paid.
Some of those who saw the ad are questioning the strategy:
Definitely a sign of desperation for $TSLA. They wouldn’t need to beg for votes if the BOD just did their job and held Elon accountable for his actions in the past. His blatant disregard for Tesla’s brand and the actions he takes in the public eye are exactly why I voted NO.
— squawksquare (@squawksquare) October 14, 2025
Doesn’t this taste wrong to anyone else?
No ads for the business? Only for the CEOs pay package?
— Schrodinger’s Wealth (@BosCybertruck) October 14, 2025
Tesla is validating Robotaxi in a new area, and as the company has continued to gain some additional permissions to begin testing in new states, it seems its Full Self-Driving-based ride-hailing project is moving toward a larger footprint.
Two Robotaxi units with LiDAR validation equipment were spotted in Gilbert, Arizona, recently, showing that Tesla is aiming to launch its ride-hailing service in the state soon:
TESLA ROBOTAXI SPOTTED VALIDATING IN GILBERT, AZ! :0 pic.twitter.com/kqtQEBwl8Y
— Greggertruck (@greggertruck) October 11, 2025
Another unit was spotted in Tempe, Arizona:
Spotted this one and another one behind it in Tempe, AZ. I also saw a pair driving from Mesa to Tempe. Looks like they’re validating the entire east valley. I haven’t seen any in the west valley yet. pic.twitter.com/gFWTHhmBLT
— TechCat (@elviswjr) October 12, 2025
These types of validation vehicles have been spotted in several areas ahead of their launch as a public ride-hailing service for passengers. Tesla first launched Robotaxi in Austin, Texas, back in late June, and since then, it has expanded to the Bay Area of California.
However, Tesla has continued to attempt to expand Robotaxi to other areas as well, including Nevada and Arizona. It has also been working toward approvals in other states based on job postings, as Tesla is hiring for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in New York and Florida, as well.
The expansion of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service has been an effort that Tesla has been spending a lot of time on over the past few months. CEO Elon Musk said the expansion aims to bring Robotaxi to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, but there is still plenty of work to be done.
Tesla Robotaxi heads to a new major Texas city for the first time
Tesla did make its Robotaxi app public in recent months, allowing more members of the public to experience the suite for themselves, as long as they could get to Austin or the Bay Area.
In the coming months, it seems more apparent that Tesla will take a broader focus on expanding Robotaxi, especially with the fact that these validation vehicles are being spotted throughout different parts of the United States.
Tesla eyes two new states for Robotaxi
Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+
Tesla Robotaxi testing in Arizona is ramping up quickly
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