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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand
The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.
Thank you, Tesla.
As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.
And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.
“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”
Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory
Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.
Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”
Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”
If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.
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Tesla hosts Rome Mayor for first Italian FSD Supervised road demo
The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets.
Tesla definitely seems to be actively engaging European officials on FSD’s capabilities, with the company hosting Rome Mayor Roberto Gualtieri and Mobility Assessor Eugenio Patanè for a hands-on road demonstration.
The event marked the first time an Italian mayor tested the advanced driver-assistance system in person in Rome’s urban streets. This comes amid Tesla’s push for FSD’s EU regulatory approvals in the coming year.
Rome officials experience FSD Supervised
Tesla conducted the demo using a Model 3 equipped with Full Self-Driving (Supervised), tackling typical Roman traffic including complex intersections, roundabouts, pedestrian crossings and mixed users like cars, bikes and scooters.
The system showcased AI-based assisted driving, prioritizing safety while maintaining flow. FSD also handled overtakes and lane decisions, though with constant driver supervision.
Investor Andrea Stroppa detailed the event on X, noting the system’s potential to reduce severe collision risks by up to seven times compared to traditional driving, based on Tesla’s data from billions of global fleet miles. The session highlighted FSD’s role as an assistance tool in its Supervised form, not a replacement, with the driver fully responsible at all times.
Path to European rollout
Tesla has logged over 1 million kilometers of testing across 17 European countries, including Italy, to refine FSD for local conditions. The fact that Rome officials personally tested FSD Supervised bodes well for the program’s approval, as it suggests that key individuals are closely watching Tesla’s efforts and innovations.
Assessor Patanè also highlighted the administration’s interest in technologies that boost road safety and urban travel quality, viewing them as aids for both private and public transport while respecting rules.
Replies on X urged involving Italy’s Transport Ministry to speed approvals, with one user noting, “Great idea to involve the mayor! It would be necessary to involve components of the Ministry of Transport and the government as soon as possible: it’s they who can accelerate the approval of FSD in Italy.”
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Tesla FSD (Supervised) blows away French journalist after test ride
Cadot described FSD as “mind-blowing,” both for the safety of the vehicle’s driving and the “humanity” of its driving behaviors.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) seems to be making waves in Europe, with French tech journalist Julien Cadot recently sharing a positive first-hand experience from a supervised test drive in France.
Cadot, who tested the system for Numerama after eight years of anticipation since early Autopilot trials, described FSD as “mind-blowing,” both for the safety of the vehicle’s driving and the “humanity” of its driving behaviors.
Julien Cadot’s FSD test in France
Cadot announced his upcoming test on X, writing in French: “I’m going to test Tesla’s FSD for Numerama in France. 8 years I’ve been waiting to relive the sensations of our very first contact with the unbridled Autopilot of the 2016s.” He followed up shortly after with an initial reaction, writing: “I don’t want to spoil too much because as media we were allowed to film everything and I have a huge video coming… But: it’s mind-blowing! Both for safety and for the ‘humanity’ of the choices.”
His later posts detailed FSD’s specific maneuvers that he found particularly compelling. These include the vehicle safely overtaking a delivery truck by inches, something Cadot said he personally would avoid to protect his rims, but FSD handled flawlessly. He also praised FSD’s cyclist overtakes, as the system always maintained the required 1.5-meter distance by encroaching on the opposite lane when clear. Ultimately, Cadot noted FSD’s decision-making prioritized safety and advancement, which is pretty remarkable.
FSD’s ‘human’ edge over Autopilot
When asked if FSD felt light-years ahead of standard Autopilot, Cadot replied: “It’s incomparable, it’s not the same language.” He elaborated on scenarios like bypassing a parked delivery truck across a solid white line, where FSD assessed safety and proceeded just as a human driver might, rather than halting indefinitely. This “humanity” impressed Cadot the most, as it allowed FSD to fluidly navigate real-world chaos like urban Paris traffic.
Tesla is currently hard at work pushing for the rollout of FSD to several European countries. Recent reports have revealed that Tesla has received approval to operate 19 FSD test vehicles on Spain’s roads, though this number could increase as the program develops. As per the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), Tesla would be able to operate its FSD fleet on any national route across Spain. Recent job openings also hint at Tesla starting FSD tests in Austria. Apart from this, the company is also holding FSD demonstrations in Germany, France, and Italy.
Tesla Optimus showed off its newest capability as progress on the project continues to accelerate toward an ultimate goal of mass production in the coming years.
Tesla is still developing Optimus and preparing for the first stages of mass production, where units would be sold and shipped to customers. CEO Elon Musk has always marketed the humanoid robot as the biggest product in history, even outside of Tesla, but of all time.
He believes it will eliminate the need to manually perform monotonous tasks, like cleaning, mowing the lawn, and folding laundry.
However, lately, Musk has revealed even bigger plans for Optimus, including the ability to relieve humans of work entirely within the next 20 years.
JUST IN: Elon Musk says working will be ‘optional’ in less than 20 years because of AI and robotics. pic.twitter.com/l3S5kl5HBB
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) November 30, 2025
Development at Tesla’s Artificial Intelligence and Robotics teams has progressed, and a new video was shown of the robot taking a light jog with what appeared to be some pretty natural form:
Just set a new PR in the lab pic.twitter.com/8kJ2om7uV7
— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) December 2, 2025
Optimus has also made several public appearances lately, including one at the Neural Information Processing Systems, or NeurIPS Conference. Some spectators shared videos of Optimus’s charging rig, as well as its movements and capabilities, most interestingly, the hand:
You have to hand it to Elon 🤟 pic.twitter.com/fZKDlmGAbe
— Ric Burton · NeurIPS 2025 (@_ricburton) December 2, 2025
The hand, forearm, and fingers have been one of the most evident challenges for Tesla in recent times, especially as it continues to work on its 3rd Generation iteration of Optimus.
Musk said during the Q3 Earnings Call:
“I don’t want to downplay the difficulty, but it’s an incredibly difficult thing, especially to create a hand that is as dexterous and capable as the human hand, which is incredible. The human hand is an incredible thing. The more you study the human hand, the more incredible you realize it is, and why you need four fingers and a thumb, why the fingers have certain degrees of freedom, why the various muscles are of different strengths, and fingers are of different lengths. It turns out that those are all there for a reason.”
The interesting part of the Optimus program so far is the fact that Tesla has made a lot of progress with other portions of the project, like movement, for example, which appears to have come a long way.
However, without a functional hand and fingers, Optimus could be rendered relatively useless, so it is evident that it has to figure this crucial part out first.
Tesla hosts Rome Mayor for first Italian FSD Supervised road demo
Tesla FSD (Supervised) blows away French journalist after test ride
