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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand

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The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.

Thank you, Tesla.

As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.

And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.

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“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

Tesla Fremont factory Model S and Model X

Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory

Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.

Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”

Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”

If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.

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Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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IM Motors co-CEO apologizes to Tesla China over FUD comments

Liu said later investigations showed the accident was not caused by a brake failure on the Tesla’s part, contrary to his initial comments.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Liu Tao, co-CEO of IM Motors, has publicly apologized to Tesla China for comments he made in 2022 suggesting a Tesla vehicle was defective following a fatal traffic accident in Chaozhou, China. 

Liu said later investigations showed the accident was not caused by a brake failure on the Tesla’s part, contrary to his initial comments.

IM Motors co-CEO issues apology

Liu Tao posted a statement addressing remarks he made following a serious traffic accident in Chaozhou, Guangdong province, in November 2022, as noted in a Sina News report. Liu stated that based on limited public information at the time, he published a Weibo post suggesting a safety issue with the Tesla involved in the crash. The executive clarified that his initial comments were incorrect.

“On November 17, 2022, based on limited publicly available information, I posted a Weibo post regarding a major traffic accident that occurred in Chaozhou, suggesting that the Tesla product involved in the accident posed a safety hazard. Four hours later, I deleted the post. In May 2023, according to the traffic police’s accident liability determination and relevant forensic opinions, the Chaozhou accident was not caused by Tesla brake failure. 

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“The aforementioned findings and opinions regarding the investigation conclusions of the Chaozhou accident corrected the erroneous statements I made in my previous Weibo post, and I hereby clarify and correct them. I apologize for the negative impact my inappropriate remarks made before the facts were ascertained, which caused Tesla,” Liu said. 

Investigation and court findings

The Chaozhou accident occurred in Raoping County in November 2022 and resulted in two deaths and three injuries. Video footage circulated online at the time showed a Tesla vehicle accelerating at high speed and colliding with multiple motorcycles and bicycles. Reports indicated the vehicle reached a speed of 198 kilometers per hour.

The incident drew widespread attention as the parties involved provided conflicting accounts and investigation details were released gradually. Media reports in early 2023 said investigation results had been completed, though the vehicle owner requested a re-investigation, delaying the issuance of a final liability determination.

The case resurfaced later in 2023 following a defamation lawsuit filed by Tesla China against a media outlet. According to a court judgment cited by Shanghai Securities News, forensic analysis determined that the fatal accident was unrelated to any malfunction on the Tesla’s braking or steering systems. The court also ruled that the media outlet must publish an apology, address the negative impact on Tesla China’s reputation, and pay a penalty of 30,000 yuan.

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SpaceX is exploring a “Starlink Phone” for direct-to-device internet services: report

The update was reportedly shared to Reuters by people familiar with the matter. 

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(Credit: T-Mobile)

SpaceX is reportedly exploring new products tied to Starlink, including a potential Starlink-branded phone. 

The update was reportedly shared to Reuters by people familiar with the matter. 

A possible Starlink Phone

As per Reuters’ sources, SpaceX has reportedly discussed building a mobile device designed to connect directly to the Starlink satellite constellation. Details about the potential device and its possible release are still unclear, however.

SpaceX has dabbled with mobile solutions in the past. The company has partnered with T-Mobile to provide Starlink connectivity to existing smartphones. And last year, SpaceX initiated a $19.6 billion purchase of satellite spectrum from EchoStar.

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Elon Musk did acknowledge the idea of a potential mobile device recently on X, writing that a Starlink phone is “not out of the question at some point.” Unlike conventional smartphones, however, Musk described a device that is “optimized purely for running max performance/watt neural nets.” 

Starlink and SpaceX’s revenue

Starlink has become SpaceX’s dominant commercial business. Reuters’ sources claimed that the private space company generated roughly $15–$16 billion in revenue last year, with about $8 billion in profit. Starlink is estimated to have accounted for 50% to 80% of SpaceX’s total revenue last year.

SpaceX now operates more than 9,500 Starlink satellites and serves over 9 million users worldwide. About 650 satellites are already dedicated to SpaceX’s direct-to-device initiative, which aims to eventually provide full cellular coverage globally.

Future expansion of Starlink’s mobile capabilities depends heavily on Starship, which is designed to launch larger batches of upgraded Starlink satellites. Musk has stated that each Starship launch carrying Starlink satellites could increase network capacity by “more than 20 times.”

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FCC accepts SpaceX filing for 1 million orbital data center plan

The move formally places SpaceX’s “Orbital Data Center” concept into the FCC’s review process.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has accepted SpaceX’s filing for a new non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellite system of up to one million spacecraft and has opened the proposal for public comment. 

The move formally places SpaceX’s “Orbital Data Center” concept into the FCC’s review process, marking the first regulatory step for the ambitious space-based computing network.

FCC opens SpaceX’s proposal for comment

In a public notice, the FCC’s Space Bureau stated that it is accepting SpaceX’s application to deploy a new non-geostationary satellite system known as the “SpaceX Orbital Data Center system.” As per the filing, the system would consist of “up to one million satellites” operating at altitudes between 500 and 2,000 kilometers, using optical inter-satellite links for data transmission.

The FCC notice described the proposal as a long-term effort. SpaceX wrote that the system would represent the “first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization – one that can harness the Sun’s full power.” The satellites would rely heavily on high-bandwidth optical links and conduct telemetry, tracking, and command operations, with traffic routed through space-based laser networks before being sent to authorized ground stations.

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FCC Chairman Brendan Carr highlighted the filing in a post on X, noting that the Commission is now seeking public comment on SpaceX’s proposal. Interested parties have until early March to submit comments.

What SpaceX is proposing to build

As per the FCC’s release, SpaceX’s orbital data center system would operate alongside its existing and planned Starlink constellations. The FCC notice noted that the proposed satellites may connect not only with others in the new system, but also with satellites in SpaceX’s first- and second-generation Starlink networks.

The filing also outlined several waiver requests, including exemptions from certain NGSO milestone and surety bond requirements, as well as flexibility in how orbital planes and communication beams are disclosed, as noted in a Benzinga report. SpaceX noted that these waivers are necessary to support the scale and architecture of the proposed system.

As noted in coverage of the filing, the proposal does not represent an immediate deployment plan, but rather a framework for future space-based computing infrastructure. SpaceX has discussed the idea of moving energy-intensive computing, such as AI workloads, into orbit, where continuous solar power and large physical scale could reduce constraints faced on Earth.

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