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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand
The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.
Thank you, Tesla.
As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.
And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.
“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory
Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.
Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”
Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”
If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.
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Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) testing gains major ground in Spain
Based on information posted by the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), it appears that Tesla is already busy testing FSD in the country.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) program is accelerating across Europe, with Spain emerging as a key testing hub under the country’s new ES-AV framework program.
Based on information posted by the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), it appears that Tesla is already busy testing FSD in the country.
Spain’s ES-AV framework
Spain’s DGT launched the ES-AV Program in July 2025 to standardize testing for automated vehicles from prototypes to pre-homologation stages. The DGT described the purpose of the program on its official website.
“The program is designed to complement and enhance oversight, regulation, research, and transparency efforts, as well as to support innovation and advancements in automotive technology and industry. This framework also aims to capitalize on the opportunity to position Spain as a pioneer and leader in automated vehicle technology, seeking to provide solutions that help overcome or alleviate certain shortcomings or negative externalities of the current transportation system,” the DGT wrote.
The program identifies three testing phases based on technological maturity and the scope of a company’s operations. Each phase has a set of minimum eligibility requirements, and applicants must indicate which phase they wish to participate in, at least based on their specific technological development.

Tesla FSD tests
As noted by Tesla watcher Kees Roelandschap on X, the DGT’s new framework effectively gives the green flight for nationwide FSD testing. So far, Tesla Spain has a total of 19 vehicles authorized to test FSD on the country’s roads, though it would not be surprising if this fleet grows in the coming months.
The start date for the program is listed at November 27, 2025 to November 26, 2027. The DGT also noted that unlimited FSD tests could be done across Spain on any national route. And since Tesla is already in Phase 3 of the ES-AV Program, onboard safety operators are optional. Remote monitoring would also be allowed.
Tesla’s FSD tests in Spain could help the company gain a lot of real-world data on the country’s roads. Considering the scope of tests that are allowed for the electric vehicle maker, it seems like Spain would be one of the European countries that would be friendly to FSD’s operations. So far, Tesla’s FSD push in Europe is notable, with the company holding FSD demonstrations in Germany, France, and Italy. Tesla is also pushing for national approval in the Netherlands in early 2026.
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Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software continues its rapid evolution, with the latest V14.2.1 update drawing widespread praise.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software continues its rapid evolution, with the latest V14.2.1 update drawing widespread praise for its smoother performance and smarter decision-making.
Videos and firsthand accounts from Tesla owners highlight V14.2.1 as an update that improves navigation responsiveness, sign recognition, and overall fluidity, among other things. Some drivers have even described it as “more alive than ever,” hinting at the system eventually feeling “sentient,” as Elon Musk has predicted.
FSD V14.2.1 first impressions
Early adopters are buzzing about how V14.2.1 feels less intrusive while staying vigilant. In a post shared on X, Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic described the update as a “huge leap forward,” adding that the system remains “incredibly assertive but still safe.”
Another Tesla driver, Devin Olsenn, who logged ~600 km on V14.2.1, reported no safety disengagements, with the car feeling “more alive than ever.” The Tesla owner noted that his wife now defaults to using FSD V14, as the system is already very smooth and refined.
Adverse weather and regulatory zones are testing grounds where V14.2.1 shines, at least according to testers in snow areas. Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt shared a video of his first snowy drive on unplowed rural roads in New Hampshire, where FSD did great and erred on the side of caution. As per Merritt, FSD V14.2.1 was “extra cautious” but it performed well overall.
Sign recognition and freeway prowess
Sign recognition also seemed to show improvements with FSD V14.2.1. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted a clip from his upcoming first-impressions video, showcasing improved school zone behavior. “I think it read the signs better,” he observed, though in standard mode, it didn’t fully drop to 15 mph within the short timeframe. This nuance points to V14.2.1’s growing awareness of temporal rules, a step toward fewer false positives in dynamic environments.
FSD V14.2.1 also seems to excel in high-stress highway scenarios. Fellow FSD tester @BLKMDL3 posted a video of FSD V14.2.1 managing a multi-lane freeway closure due to a police chase-related accident. “Perfectly handles all lanes of the freeway merging into one,” the Tesla owner noted in his post on X.
FSD V14.2.1 was released on Thanksgiving, much to the pleasant surprise of Tesla owners. The update’s release notes are almost identical to the system’s previous iteration, save for one line item read, “Camera visibility can lead to increased attention monitoring sensitivity.”
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Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
The program allows the public to hop in as a non-driving observer to witness FSD navigate urban streets firsthand.
Tesla has kicked off passenger ride-alongs for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Italy, France and Germany. The program allows the public to hop in as a non-driving observer to witness FSD navigate urban streets firsthand.
The program, detailed on Tesla’s event pages, arrives ahead of a potential early 2026 Dutch regulatory approval that could unlock a potential EU-wide rollout for FSD.
Hands-Off Demos
Tesla’s ride-along invites participants to “ride along in the passenger seat to experience how it handles real-world traffic & the most stressful parts of daily driving, making the roads safer for all,” as per the company’s announcement on X through its official Tesla Europe & Middle East account.
Sign-ups via localized pages offer free slots through December, with Tesla teams piloting vehicles through city streets, roundabouts and highways.
“Be one of the first to experience Full Self-Driving (Supervised) from the passenger seat. Our team will take you along as a passenger and show you how Full Self-Driving (Supervised) works under real-world road conditions,” Tesla wrote. “Discover how it reacts to live traffic and masters the most stressful parts of driving to make the roads safer for you and others. Come join us to learn how we are moving closer to a fully autonomous future.”
Building trust towards an FSD Unsupervised rollout
Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) ride-alongs could be an effective tool to build trust and get regular car buyers and commuters used to the idea of vehicles driving themselves. By seating riders shotgun, Tesla could provide participants with a front row seat to the bleeding edge of consumer-grade driverless systems.
FSD (Supervised) has already been rolled out to several countries, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and partially in China. So far, FSD (Supervised) has been received positively by drivers, as it really makes driving tasks and long trips significantly easier and more pleasant.
FSD is a key safety feature as well, which became all too evident when a Tesla driving on FSD was hit by what seemed to be a meteorite in Australia. The vehicle moved safely despite the impact, though the same would likely not be true had the car been driven manually.
