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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand
The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.
Thank you, Tesla.
As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.
And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.
“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”
Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory
Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.
Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”
Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”
If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.
Elon Musk
NASA’s first human outpost on the Moon starts now – SpaceX on deck
NASA named the rovers, landers, and vendors that will build America’s first Moon Base.
NASA has laid out its most detailed Moon Base plan to date, describing a permanent outpost near the Moon’s south pole that the agency intends to build over the coming decade as a direct stepping stone to Mars. “The Moon Base will be America’s and humanity’s first outpost on another celestial world,” NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said, adding that every mission crewed and uncrewed “will be a learning opportunity as we return to the lunar surface, build the infrastructure to stay, and master the skills required to live and operate in one of the most demanding and dangerous environments imaginable.”
The plan is structured in three phases involving both uncrewed and crewed missions to deliver equipment, vehicles, and infrastructure to the surface, with the first three moon base missions targeted to launch before the end of 2026.
Moon Base I, targeting fall 2026, will use Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 lander to deliver scientific instruments to the Shackleton Connecting Ridge, the same region where Artemis astronauts will land. Moon Base II will send Astrobotic’s Griffin lander carrying more than 1,100 pounds of cargo including Astrolab’s FLIP rover to begin developing mobility systems on the surface. Moon Base III will carry the Lunar Vertex science mission on Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C Trinity lander to study lunar swirls near the south pole, with ESA and Korean science payloads aboard.
On the rover side, NASA awarded Astrolab $219 million and Lunar Outpost $220 million to build the first phase of Lunar Terrain Vehicles, with both rovers targeted for deployment to the lunar surface by 2028. Astrolab’s crewed rover weighs roughly 2,000 pounds and can reach over 6 mph. Lunar Outpost’s Pegasus rover can operate autonomously or via remote control at over 9 mph. Blue Origin separately received $188 million with an option worth $280.4 million to deliver cargo landers for rover transport.
NASA also confirmed that MoonFall, a mission deploying four survey drones to scout Artemis landing sites, has selected Firefly Aerospace to build the transport spacecraft, with a 2028 launch target.
SpaceX sits at the center of that commercial layer. SpaceX holds the NASA Human Landing System contract for the Starship-derived lander that will put astronauts on the surface under Artemis IV, currently targeting 2028. Before that can happen, SpaceX must demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer at scale, a process requiring multiple Starship tanker launches to fuel a single mission. Water ice at the lunar south pole is central to the base’s long-term viability, as it can be converted into drinking water, breathable oxygen, and rocket fuel, directly reducing dependence on Earth resupply. That resource loop becomes far more practical if Starship can land and be refueled on or near the Moon itself.
Elon Musk has publicly stated that Starship V3, which recently completed its first flight, should be capable enough for initial Mars missions. The Moon Base plan announced Tuesday is the infrastructure layer that connects everything between those two ambitions, and SpaceX is the only American company currently contracted to build the rocket that gets humans to either destination.
A new Tesla patent that has been granted to the company this week has revealed a potential strategy for solving a major issue that could impact both the Full Self-Driving suite and Optimus.
The patent, which is No. 12,636,684, describes a “Lens Cleaning System,” and was submitted by Tesla in May 2025.
The language in the patent details a lens cleaning system that can dispense fluid and wipe it away with a wiper assembly.
Optimus can see you now… 🤖👁️
The patent for @Tesla_Optimus‘s eye structure just dropped. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/Jac4VhDmKH
— SETI Park (@seti_park) May 26, 2026
This would effectively clean any debris that would potentially impact the visibility of the cameras on Tesla automobiles or Optimus’s camera eyes. Perhaps the most pertinent example is through the Full Self-Driving suite, as debris that can accumulate on the vehicle’s exterior cameras can impact the suite’s ability to operate effectively.
This requires a remedy through manual cleaning, but this patent hints that Tesla could be planning to implement this new technology on its upcoming vehicles.
Interestingly, we have started to see it on some Robotaxi vehicles, and it will likely be included in the Cybercab, especially as that vehicle will enable full autonomy.
Back in January, the first Model Y Robotaxi units were spotted with camera washers on the side repeaters, as the video below shows fluid squirting and rinsing off any debris that is limiting visibility.
🚨 Tesla looks to have installed Camera Washers on the side repeater cameras on Robotaxis in Austin
pic.twitter.com/xemRtDtlRR— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 23, 2026
This hardware patent does bring up an interesting question for those of us who own Teslas with AI4 and have been told that our cars will one day be capable of full autonomy: Will this washer be available as a retrofit on already-built cars?
Perhaps the “Lens Cleaning System” patent is a good look at one way Tesla plans to combat one of the most obvious issues of autonomy that utilizes a camera-based system. For Optimus, it could be less needed as it could be manually cleaned by owners. For cars, it seems like a bigger necessity, especially as autonomy nears and Tesla gets close to launching a feature-complete FSD suite.
SpaceX’s Starlink product has just gotten its latest airline adoptee, and the move marks the successful partnership of three of the “Big Four” U.S. airlines.
American Airlines announced on Tuesday that it would utilize Starlink in more than 500 narrowbody aircraft beginning in the first quarter of 2027. These include the Airbus aircraft in its fleet, including the new A321XLR and A321neo.
With the new partnership with American Airlines, Starlink is now present on three of the largest airlines in the country: American, United, and Southwest.
Starlink gets its latest airline adoptee for stable and reliable internet access
Starlink’s VP of Enterprise Sales, Jason Fritch, said:
“We are proud to bring Starlink on board American Airlines, delivering fast and reliable internet to passengers and crew. Whether traveling for leisure or business, Starlink enables a fully connected experience gate to gate, making every flight smoother and more enjoyable.”
Additionally, American Airlines Chief Customer Officer, Heather Garboden, said:
“As a premium global airline, we are continuously seeking out world-class partners like Starlink to deliver what our customers need and want. The addition of Starlink solidifies American as a leading airline in keeping passengers connected in flight.”
Starlink has been on a tear over the past year, as it has continued to be adopted by a wide variety of airlines as a more consistent and reliable way to provide WiFi to its passengers. It has already gained a great reputation among residential users, but its biggest commercial application appears to be how it is being used in the air.
American Airlines will adopt Starlink on more than 500 of its narrowbody aircraft beginning in Q1 2027
“As a premium global airline, we are continuously seeking out world-class partners like Starlink to deliver what our customers need and want,” said American Airlines Chief… pic.twitter.com/XY2wflycc0
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) May 26, 2026
The only airline of the Big Four not to adopt Starlink thus far is Delta, which chose to opt for the alternative, which is Amazon Leo. CEO Ed Bastian said to Bloomberg that Delta chose Amazon’s product over Starlink’s because “the opportunities, in terms of the improved bandwidth with a much lower price point than what we’ve ever seen from Starlink, will make a big difference.”
Delta will not start installing Amazon Leo until 2028.
“Of course, we expect Starlink will be warning people that we’re going to go with an inferior product,” Bastian said. “But I’m not too worried about partnering with Amazon.”
NASA’s first human outpost on the Moon starts now – SpaceX on deck
Tesla patent reveals strategy for solving major Full Self-Driving, Optimus issue
