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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand
The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.
Thank you, Tesla.
As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.
And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.
“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”
Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory
Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.
Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”
Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”
If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.
Elon Musk
SpaceX secures win as US labor board drops oversight case
The NLRB confirmed that it no longer has jurisdiction over SpaceX.
SpaceX scored a legal victory after the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) decided to dismiss a case which accused the company of terminating engineers who were involved in an open letter against founder Elon Musk.
The NLRB confirmed that it no longer has jurisdiction over SpaceX. The update was initially shared by Bloomberg News, which cited a letter about the matter it reportedly reviewed.
In a letter to the former employees’ lawyers, the labor board stated that the affected employees were under the jurisdiction of the National Mediation Board (NMB), not the NLRB. As a result, the labor board stated that it was dismissing the case.
As per Danielle Pierce, a regional director of the agency, “the National Labor Relations Board lacks jurisdiction over the Employer and, therefore, I am dismissing your charge.”
The NMB typically oversees airlines and railroads. The NLRB, on the other hand, covers most private-sector employers, as well as manufacturers such as Boeing.
The former SpaceX engineers have argued that the private space company did not belong under the NMB’s jurisdiction because SpaceX only offers services to “hand-picked customers.”
In an opinion, however, the NMB stated that SpaceX was under its jurisdiction because “space transport includes air travel” to get to outer space. The mediation board also noted that anyone can contact SpaceX to secure its services.
SpaceX had previously challenged the NLRB’s authority in court, arguing that the agency’s structure was unconstitutional. Jennifer Abruzzo, the NLRB general counsel under former United States President Joe Biden, rejected SpaceX’s claims. Following Abruzzo’s termination under the Trump administration, however, SpaceX asked the labor board to reconsider its arguments.
SpaceX is not the only company that has challenged the constitutionality of the NLRB. Since SpaceX filed its legal challenge against the agency in 2024, other high-profile companies have followed suit. These include Amazon, which has filed similar cases that are now pending.
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Tesla accuses IG Metall member of secretly recording Giga Berlin meeting
The union has denied the electric vehicle maker’s allegations.
Police seized the computer of an IG Metall member at Tesla Giga Berlin on Tuesday amid allegations that a works council meeting was secretly recorded.
The union has denied the electric vehicle maker’s allegations.
In a post on X, Gigafactory Berlin plant manager André Thierig stated that an external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting and allegedly recorded the session. Thierig described the event as “truly beyond words.”
“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote in his post on X.
Police later confirmed to local news outlet rbb24 that officers did seize a computer belonging to an IG Metall member at the Giga Berlin site on Tuesday afternoon. Tesla stated that employees had contacted authorities after discovering the alleged recording.
IG Metall denied Tesla’s accusations, arguing that its representative did not record the meeting. The union alleged that Tesla’s claim was simply a tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections.
The next works council election at Giga Berlin is scheduled for March 2 to 4, 2026. The facility’s management had confirmed the dates to local news outlets. The official announcement marks the start of the election process and campaign period.
Approximately 11,000 employees are eligible to participate in the vote.
The previous works council election at the plant took place in 2024, and it was triggered by a notable increase in workforce size. Under German labor law, regular works council elections must be held every four years between March 1 and May 31.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI plants flag in Bellevue AI hotspot
The lease places xAI’s new office in one of the region’s fastest-growing tech hubs.
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI has leased a full floor at Lincoln Square South in downtown Bellevue, WA, as per city permit filings.
The lease places xAI’s new office in one of the region’s fastest-growing tech hubs.
Public records indicate that xAI leased roughly 24,800 square feet in Lincoln Square South. The location was previously occupied by video game company Epic Games. Lincoln Square South is part of the Bellevue Collection, which is owned by Kemper Development Co.
The lease was first referenced in January by commercial real estate firm Broderick Group, which noted that an unnamed tenant had secured the space, as stated in a report from the Puget Sound Business Journal. Later filings identified xAI as the occupant for the space.
xAI has not publicly commented on the lease.
xAI hinted at plans to open an office in the Seattle area back in September, when the startup posted job openings with salaries ranging from $180,000 to $440,000. At the time, the company had narrowed its location search to cities on the Eastside but had not finalized a lease.
xAI’s Bellevue expansion comes as Musk continues consolidating his businesses. Last week, SpaceX acquired xAI in a deal that valued the artificial intelligence startup at $250 billion. SpaceX itself is now valued at roughly $1.25 trillion and is expected to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) later this year.
Musk already has a significant presence in the region through SpaceX, which employs about 2,000 workers locally. That initiative, however, is focused largely on Starlink satellite development.
Bellevue has increasingly become a center for artificial intelligence companies. OpenAI has expanded its local office footprint to nearly 300,000 square feet. Data infrastructure firms such as Crusoe and CoreWeave have also established offices downtown.
SpaceX secures win as US labor board drops oversight case
Tesla accuses IG Metall member of secretly recording Giga Berlin meeting
