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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand

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The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.

Thank you, Tesla.

As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.

And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.

“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

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Tesla Fremont factory Model S and Model X

Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory

Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.

Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”

Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”

If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.

Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Lufthansa Group to equip Starlink on its 850-aircraft fleet

Under the collaboration, Lufthansa Group will install Starlink technology on both its existing fleet and all newly delivered aircraft, as noted by the group in a press release.

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Credit: Lufthansa

Lufthansa Group has announced a partnership with Starlink that will bring high-speed internet connectivity to every aircraft across all its carriers. 

This means that aircraft across the group’s brands, from Lufthansa, SWISS, and Austrian Airlines to Brussels Airlines, would be able to enjoy high-speed internet access using the industry-leading satellite internet solution.

Starlink in-flight internet

Under the collaboration, Lufthansa Group will install Starlink technology on both its existing fleet and all newly delivered aircraft, as noted by the group in a press release

Starlink’s low-Earth orbit satellites are expected to provide significantly higher bandwidth and lower latency than traditional in-flight Wi-Fi, which should enable streaming, online work, and other data-intensive applications for passengers during flights.

Starlink-powered internet is expected to be available on the first commercial flights as early as the second half of 2026. The rollout will continue through the decade, with the entire Lufthansa Group fleet scheduled to be fully equipped with Starlink by 2029. Once complete, no other European airline group will operate more Starlink-connected aircraft.

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Free high-speed access

As part of the initiative, Lufthansa Group will offer the new high-speed internet free of charge to all status customers and Travel ID users, regardless of cabin class. Chief Commercial Officer Dieter Vranckx shared his expectations for the program.

“In our anniversary year, in which we are celebrating Lufthansa’s 100th birthday, we have decided to introduce a new high-speed internet solution from Starlink for all our airlines. The Lufthansa Group is taking the next step and setting an essential milestone for the premium travel experience of our customers. 

“Connectivity on board plays an important role today, and with Starlink, we are not only investing in the best product on the market, but also in the satisfaction of our passengers,” Vranckx said. 

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Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era

The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.

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Credit: Duke University

Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance. 

The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.

Tesla secures top talent

According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.

Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.

Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.

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Tesla’s problem solver

Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.

Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production. 

With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.

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Tesla counters Norway’s VAT hike with dedicated consumer bonus

The move follows Tesla Norway’s stunning finish in 2025, where the company saw substantial sales during the final weeks of the year.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla has rolled out a price incentive in Norway, effectively offsetting a notable VAT increase that hit electric vehicle buyers at the start of 2026.

The move follows Tesla Norway’s stunning finish in 2025, where the company saw substantial sales during the final weeks of the year.

A “Tesla bonus”

Once the VAT increase kicked in at the start of 2026, Tesla Norway’s sales cooled almost immediately, as noted in a CarUp report. Tesla’s response was swift, with the electric vehicle maker rolling out what it calls a “Tesla bonus.”

This bonus effectively cuts prices by up to 50,000 kronor across eight model variants. All versions of the Tesla Model Y qualify for the incentive, along with most Tesla Model 3 trims, save for the base entry-level model.

This means that for Tesla Norway’s best-selling vehicles, the bonus effectively restores pricing to pre-VAT levels. This blunts the impact of the new tax and makes Tesla’s vehicle offerings competitive again in Europe’s most EV-saturated market.

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Stabilizing demand

In addition to the “Tesla bonus,” the electric car maker is also offering a promotional interest rate for up to three years, with terms varying by model. The incentive applies to orders placed between January 9 and March 31, 2026, with delivery required by the end of the first quarter.

The stakes are high in Norway, where electric vehicles dominate new-car registrations. From the vehicles that were sold in 2025, 96% of new cars sold were fully electric. And from this number, Tesla and its Model Y made their dominance felt. This was highlighted by Geir Inge Stokke, director of OFV, who noted that Tesla was able to achieve its stellar results despite its small vehicle lineup.

“Taking almost 20% market share during a year with record-high new car sales is remarkable in itself. When a brand also achieves such volumes with so few models, it says a lot about both demand and Tesla’s impact on the Norwegian market,” Stokke stated.

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