News
Tesla is gathering the pieces for an Alien Dreadnought 2.0 attempt at Fremont
Recent construction permits filed for the Fremont Factory suggest that Tesla is looking to improve the massive electric vehicle production facility’s automation even further. With the plant’s ongoing improvements, it almost seems like Tesla is about to attempt yet another crack at Elon Musk’s once-failed initiative: the “Alien Dreadnought” factory.
The Fremont factory has caught the attention of the nation in the past weeks, as Elon Musk and Tesla locked horns with officials from Alameda County who insisted that the facility remain shut even after California moved to its Stage 2 response for the ongoing pandemic. After a lawsuit, an act of bold defiance from the CEO, some strong words from a CA Assemblywoman against Musk, and support coming from both sides of the political spectrum, the plant was finally allowed to formally return to its normal operations.
But even during the shutdown, Tesla has been exhibiting signs that it intends to improve the Fremont factory. Permits for paint shop improvements were filed, for example, and similar documents were submitted for upgrades in the facility’s vehicle production lines. These lines were speculated to be allotted for Model Y production, which would allow the company to produce the all-electric crossover en masse without any issues.
Just recently, Tesla also filed building permit applications for the addition of “MINO robot riser anchorage structural package” and “MINO Equipment and fixture anchorage” for the Fremont Factory. These may seem a bit understated, though a look at MINO’s expertise provides a notable hint at what Tesla may be planning for its main EV production facility in the United States.
MINO Automation is a firm that provides fully integrated automation production systems that are tailor-fit for its clients. As per the company’s website, MINO specializes in Body in White (BIW) manufacturing systems that concentrate on body framing, laser application, sealing, hemming, resistance welding, and automated stranger systems. MINO works with FANUC Robotics as well, which are also being utilized by Tesla.
A look at Tesla’s recent building permit applications for the Fremont factory shows that the electric car maker is set on improving its plant, and it is also doing what it can to raise its automated processes. Just as Elon Musk intended during the Model 3’s initial delivery event, more automation would likely result in a smooth production ramp. This, of course, is especially important with the Model Y, Tesla’s highest-volume EV to date.
Those who have followed Tesla over the years would know that the company had already attempted an extremely-automated vehicle production approach in the past. Dubbed as Elon Musk’s “Alien Dreadnought” initiative, the program, which was intended for the Model 3, was supposed to be Tesla’s big breakthrough for vehicle production.
Alas, history would show that this was not meant to be, as issues with the over-automated line eventually forced Tesla to adopt a more human-centered approach to Model 3 manufacturing. Even Elon Musk eventually stated that humans are ultimately “underrated.”
But Tesla today is not the same as the company as it was during the early days of the Model 3’s production ramp. Today, Tesla is an experienced mass-manufacturer of electric cars, having produced thousands upon thousands of Model 3 sedans last year. And the company is nowhere near done. Over in Shanghai, Tesla China is attempting to ramp its local Model 3 production at a pace that far exceeds the company’s operations in Fremont.
With this in mind, there seems to be no better time to attempt yet another crack at a hyper-automated factory than today. The Model Y is the perfect vehicle for such an initiative, considering that the crossover is a high-volume car that’s designed to be built in a simple and efficient manner. As per the findings of automotive teardown specialist Sandy Munro, the Model Y seems to be designed for automation, from its rigid wiring systems that are friendly to robots, to its giant casts that eliminate unnecessary parts.
Time will tell if Elon Musk and Tesla are going to attempt another Alien Dreadnought for the Fremont factory. But either way, the remaining months of the year will likely see the California-based electric car production facility manufacturing vehicles at a volume that has never been witnessed before.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
