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Tesla is gathering the pieces for an Alien Dreadnought 2.0 attempt at Fremont
Recent construction permits filed for the Fremont Factory suggest that Tesla is looking to improve the massive electric vehicle production facility’s automation even further. With the plant’s ongoing improvements, it almost seems like Tesla is about to attempt yet another crack at Elon Musk’s once-failed initiative: the “Alien Dreadnought” factory.
The Fremont factory has caught the attention of the nation in the past weeks, as Elon Musk and Tesla locked horns with officials from Alameda County who insisted that the facility remain shut even after California moved to its Stage 2 response for the ongoing pandemic. After a lawsuit, an act of bold defiance from the CEO, some strong words from a CA Assemblywoman against Musk, and support coming from both sides of the political spectrum, the plant was finally allowed to formally return to its normal operations.
But even during the shutdown, Tesla has been exhibiting signs that it intends to improve the Fremont factory. Permits for paint shop improvements were filed, for example, and similar documents were submitted for upgrades in the facility’s vehicle production lines. These lines were speculated to be allotted for Model Y production, which would allow the company to produce the all-electric crossover en masse without any issues.
Just recently, Tesla also filed building permit applications for the addition of “MINO robot riser anchorage structural package” and “MINO Equipment and fixture anchorage” for the Fremont Factory. These may seem a bit understated, though a look at MINO’s expertise provides a notable hint at what Tesla may be planning for its main EV production facility in the United States.
MINO Automation is a firm that provides fully integrated automation production systems that are tailor-fit for its clients. As per the company’s website, MINO specializes in Body in White (BIW) manufacturing systems that concentrate on body framing, laser application, sealing, hemming, resistance welding, and automated stranger systems. MINO works with FANUC Robotics as well, which are also being utilized by Tesla.
A look at Tesla’s recent building permit applications for the Fremont factory shows that the electric car maker is set on improving its plant, and it is also doing what it can to raise its automated processes. Just as Elon Musk intended during the Model 3’s initial delivery event, more automation would likely result in a smooth production ramp. This, of course, is especially important with the Model Y, Tesla’s highest-volume EV to date.
Those who have followed Tesla over the years would know that the company had already attempted an extremely-automated vehicle production approach in the past. Dubbed as Elon Musk’s “Alien Dreadnought” initiative, the program, which was intended for the Model 3, was supposed to be Tesla’s big breakthrough for vehicle production.
Alas, history would show that this was not meant to be, as issues with the over-automated line eventually forced Tesla to adopt a more human-centered approach to Model 3 manufacturing. Even Elon Musk eventually stated that humans are ultimately “underrated.”
But Tesla today is not the same as the company as it was during the early days of the Model 3’s production ramp. Today, Tesla is an experienced mass-manufacturer of electric cars, having produced thousands upon thousands of Model 3 sedans last year. And the company is nowhere near done. Over in Shanghai, Tesla China is attempting to ramp its local Model 3 production at a pace that far exceeds the company’s operations in Fremont.
With this in mind, there seems to be no better time to attempt yet another crack at a hyper-automated factory than today. The Model Y is the perfect vehicle for such an initiative, considering that the crossover is a high-volume car that’s designed to be built in a simple and efficient manner. As per the findings of automotive teardown specialist Sandy Munro, the Model Y seems to be designed for automation, from its rigid wiring systems that are friendly to robots, to its giant casts that eliminate unnecessary parts.
Time will tell if Elon Musk and Tesla are going to attempt another Alien Dreadnought for the Fremont factory. But either way, the remaining months of the year will likely see the California-based electric car production facility manufacturing vehicles at a volume that has never been witnessed before.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
