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Experts’ dismissal of Tesla’s Full Self Driving push proves Elon Musk is still not taken seriously

(Credit: My Tesla Adventure/YouTube)

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5 years ago

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Despite delays, Elon Musk remains optimistic that Tesla’s efforts to achieve Full Self Driving will bear fruit soon. This was highlighted in a statement during his appearance at the recently held 2020 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in China, where he noted that Tesla is closing in on “Level 5” functionalities. Experts in the field of automation beg to differ. 

In a recent statement to Automotive News, Sam Abuelsamid, principal analyst at Guidehouse Insights (formerly Navigant Research) and Missy Cummings, director of the Humans and Autonomy Laboratory at Duke University, openly dismissed Tesla’s efforts to achieve full self driving. In a scathing rebuke, Abuelsamid described Musk’s targets as absurd. He also expressed his pessimism about Tesla’s approach to automation, which focuses on vision and artificial intelligence. 

“The cars they are building will never be Level 5, period. It’s nonsense. He needs to shut up until he can deliver something. The premise of making highly automated systems on cameras alone is fundamentally flawed. Their approach to software doing end-to-end AI systems is almost certainly not going to work. I don’t believe it can work. AI is too brittle,” he said. 

It should be noted that Abuelsamid recently published a study ranking companies that are currently pursuing autonomy. Similar to studies conducted by Guidehouse Insights when it was still operating as Navigant Research, Abuelsamid ranked Tesla dead last, even behind startups like Navya, which have limited real world driving data. 

Abuelsamid’s sentiments were echoed by Missy Cummings, who also argued that there is no way that Tesla could achieve Level 5 autonomy with its vehicles. In a statement to KCBS Radio, Cummings noted that Elon Musk likely does not understand what Level 5 Automation really is. This is an interesting comment from the director of the Humans and Autonomy Laboratory at Duke University, considering that Waymo CEO John Krafcik noted last year that ultimately, “Level 5 is a bit of a myth.”

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“There is no way, shape, or form the car is going to be Level 5. He doesn’t really understand what Level 5 is. I think what he means is Level 4, and he’s not even going to get Level 4. The perception systems don’t work well in weather conditions, with long shadows. We know the Tesla perception system, and the news is it’s a really bad system,” she remarked. 

While there is some merit in criticizing the Tesla CEO for missing his targets with regards to the release of the electric car maker’s full self driving system, it seems far too careless to simply dismiss all the work that Tesla has accomplished over the years either. The company, after all, is gathering real world driving data at an unprecedented scale that’s unrivaled by companies like Waymo, and that matters much when it comes to training neural networks, as emphasized by ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Tesla’s vision based approach to autonomy has also gained support from notable names such as George Hotz, who believes that Tesla would eventually become the Apple of self driving cars.

It is unfortunate, but based on the dismissive and almost aggressive rebuke of Tesla’s efforts from the experts tapped by Automotive News, it appears there is still a general tendency to completely dismiss Elon Musk and his initiatives. Interestingly enough, these statements are pretty familiar to those who have followed the SpaceX and Tesla story over the years. It may be difficult to recall at this point, but there was a time when it was believed that landing the Falcon 9 first stage on land and an autonomous barge on the sea is impossible. There was also a time when the Model X was considered unbuildable. 

Fortunately, Tesla and its CEO are a stubborn bunch, and it takes a lot more than skepticism to discourage the company. This is especially notable considering that Tesla is currently looking to roll out a massive rewrite of its Autopilot suite, which should take the company even closer to full self driving. Perhaps this time around, Elon Musk’s statements about Level 5 Autonomy may actually be pretty accurate, at least in terms of its features and timeframe. 

“I’m extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly,” said Musk, answering another question. I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year,” Musk said at the 2020 WAIC.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla schedules Roadster unveiling event, and you won’t believe when it is

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7 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Tesla has tentatively scheduled its unveiling event for the Roadster’s next-generation iteration, and you will not believe the date the company picked for it.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during the 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting that the company is aiming for an April 1 demo event.

Yes, April Fools’ Day.

Tesla originally aimed for its “most epic demo” to take place at the end of this year. However, the writing on the wall as 2025 winds down seemed to indicate the company was not quite ready to show off everything it plans to implement into the Roadster.

Its capabilities have been teased quite heavily throughout most of the year, but the biggest hints came last week when Musk appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast.

He said:

“Whether it’s good or bad, it will be unforgettable. My friend Peter Thiel once reflected that the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don’t have flying cars. I think if Peter wants a flying car, he should be able to buy one…I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveil ever. [It will be unveiled] hopefully before the end of the year. You know, we need to make sure that it works. This is some crazy technology in this car. Let’s just put it this way: if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that.”

The Roadster has been somewhat of a letdown, at least in its newest version, thus far. Tesla has routinely delayed the project, putting those who put lofty down payments on the car in a weird limbo, lost at what to do.

One notable pre-orderer cancelled his reservation last week and got in a spat with Musk about it.

Now that there is a definitive date for the Roadster unveiling, Musk and Co. should have a more definitive cutoff date for features and capabilities. Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen said earlier this year that when they showed Musk what they had done with the Roadster, the CEO encouraged them to do even more with it.

This delayed things further.

Musk also said he believes production would begin between 12 and 18 months after the unveiling, putting it out sometime in 2027.

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Elon Musk

Tesla (TSLA) shareholders officially approve Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

To earn his landmark pay package, Musk would be required to lift Tesla’s market capitalization from about $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion over the next decade.

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8 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Justin Pacheco, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has officially approved his 2025 Performance Award, a landmark pay package that could make him the world’s first trillionaire and make Tesla the most valuable company in the world by a mile. 

The 2025 CEO Performance Award was officially approved by Tesla shareholders at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting.

Elon Musk‘s landmark pay package

As per Tesla, more than 75% of the shareholders approved Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award. It was then unsurprising that the approval of Elon Musk’s pay plan received overwhelming applause from the event’s attendees.

The CEO took to the stage with much enthusiasm, welcoming every shareholder to the event and dancing briefly on stage. Optimus also danced on stage smoothly, demonstrating its improved movements to much appause.

Elon Musk’s 10-year targets

To earn his 2025 CEO Performance Award, Musk would be required to grow Tesla’s market capitalization from about $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion over the next decade. At that level, Tesla would surpass every major public company in existence. The compensation plan also requires Tesla’s operating profit to grow from $17 billion last year to $400 billion annually. 

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Apart from leading Tesla to become the world’s biggest company in history, Musk is also required to hit several product targets for the electric vehicle maker. These include the delivery of 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Tesla bots delivered, and 1 million Robotaxis in operation.

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Elon Musk

Tesla 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting: How to watch

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10 hours ago

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November 6, 2025

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Credit: @YunTaTsai1 | X

The 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting from Gigafactory Texas is set to kick off at 4 p.m. EDT, 3 p.m. CDT.

The company will be having its typical presentation for the event, where CEO Elon Musk, along with other executives will discuss things like future products, the outlook of its self-driving development, potential releases for next year, and some current events within the company.

However, this year’s Shareholder Meeting has slightly more implications than others, as Investors and Shareholders have spent the last several months petitioning and supporting one of the proposals on the docket that could be the deciding factor in Musk staying or leaving Tesla.

Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation

Proposal four outlines a new compensation package for Musk that could give him $1 trillion in shares if he is able to complete a variety of lofty goals related to production, self-driving, and other important company projects.

Musk has said that he is truly after more influence on company decisions, especially as the Tesla Optimus program is ramping up and becoming a more relevant part of the company’s story.

The CEO said during the Q3 Earnings Call that he would not feel comfortable developing an “army of robots” if he did not have a comfortable amount of influence in some of the decisions. He could be voted our or out-influenced by what he calls “activist shareholders.”

One of those investors came after his past pay package, which was approved by shareholders not once, but twice. Musk still was not able to obtain the pay because of a Delaware Chancery Court ruling.

Nevertheless, this is one of the last ditch efforts Tesla is making to get Musk the compensation that he wants.

The meeting is set to kick off at 3 p.m. local time in Austin. You can watch it via the livestream on X:

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