Investor's Corner
Tesla’s long-term play on batteries gets praise from German auto executive
When Elon Musk proposed his idea of building a Gigafactory to manufacture batteries for Tesla’s electric cars, many were skeptical. The company’s skeptics were quick to jump on the opportunity to criticize the daring venture, and even the MIT Technology Review noted in an April 2014 article that the project might “mostly be a clever negotiating tactic,” since Tesla could not guarantee enough demand for its vehicles to justify the construction of the massive facility (Tesla was only selling around 23,000 cars per year then).
Fast forward to the present, and Tesla’s long-term play on Gigafactory 1 is starting to pay off. The Model 3, an incredibly successful electric sedan that sold over 145,000 units in the SUV and pickup truck-dominated North American market in 2018, is being prepared for an international ramp. Tesla also stands as the most notable electric car maker that produces its own battery cells. Behind these advantages and milestones are Gigafactory 1’s battery production capabilities, which achieved an annualized run rate of 20 GWh last year.
For BMW Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board Manfred Schoch, Tesla’s long-term play on electric car batteries was a strategic decision. In a recent interview with German publication Manager Magazin, the BMW executive remarked that Tesla’s high investments for Gigafactory 1 are well-spent. Schoch also praised Elon Musk’s decision to closely collaborate with Panasonic early on to produce batteries at a large scale.
“Tesla controls the entire value chain; they understood electromobility,” the BMW executive said.
Schoch, who also serves as the Chairman of the Munich Works Council and the European Works Council, has decades of experience in the auto industry. Joining BMW in 1980 as a trainee, he later became the automaker’s works council chairman in 1987, where he gained a reputation as a working time expert. During his tenure with BMW, he introduced a wide variety of working time models, even introducing initiatives to make working hours more flexible for the company’s workforce. As such, Schoch is quite familiar with large-scale projects that enhance efficiency in the long-term.
In his recent interview, Schoch ultimately called on BMW’s executives to explore the idea of producing the company’s own battery cells for its upcoming electric cars. Candidly addressing his concerns, Schoch stated that BMW’s board members would probably benefit from working with Elon Musk, especially since the auto industry has developed a tendency to declare some otherwise important ideas as impossible.
“Our board members should finally deal more intensively with this gentleman, who should have been bankrupt by now. In the (auto) industry, too much is complained, and too much is declared impossible,” the BMW executive said.
Schoch’s statements on Tesla comes amidst Germany’s best year for electric vehicle sales yet. During 2018, figures from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority indicated an increase of 43.9% in EV sales. That’s more than 1% of the country’s total new passenger car sales. This increase comes amidst a steep dive in the sale of diesel-powered vehicles in Germany, which saw a decline from 38.8% to 32.3%.
EU Model 3 heading into SF Pier 80. Passed at least 4 other trucks on HW101. #Tesla $TSLA pic.twitter.com/2uI64Lk1Vh
— YunLinSJ (@YunLinSJ) January 8, 2019
Tesla, for its part, is preparing Europe for the arrival of the Model 3. Local reports suggest that Tesla is looking to ship 3,000 Model 3 to the European region starting February. Members of the Tesla community have shared images featuring trucks loaded with the electric sedan heading towards San Francisco’s Pier 80 as well.
Tesla has also begun rolling out dual-charge CCS Superchargers for the European region. When the company announced that the Model 3 would be getting a CCS port, Tesla noted that it would be “retrofitting our existing Superchargers with dual charge cables to enable Model 3, which will come with a CCS Combo 2 charge port, to use the Tesla Supercharger network.” The installation of the new “Model 3 Priority” CCS Superchargers, as well as the retrofitting of the existing network, is expected to continue in the months ahead.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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