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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s EV Seniority and how it could affect Ford’s price parity battle: Goldman Sachs

2022 Ford F-150 Lightning Pro. Pre-production model with available features shown. Available starting spring 2022.

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) seniority in the electric vehicle sector is proving to provide plenty of difficulty for the long-standing legends of the automotive industry. Ford’s (NYSE: F) recent unveiling of the all-electric version of the best-selling pickup truck in America with the F-150 Lightning was a step in the right direction for the Michigan-based car company. Still, its battle with price parity puts it in an awkward position, as other brands, especially Tesla, can offer a considerably more advanced product in terms of EV tech and range while offering a more affordable option through price per kilowatt-hour. Goldman Sachs released a note to investors that detailed Ford’s strong F-15o Lightning unveiling was the company “moving in the right direction,” but they’re still going to fighting an uphill battle for years to come.

Highlighting Ford’s ambitious plan to roll out 40% of its global production as electrified models by 2030, Goldman Sachs sees the automaker’s recent $8 billion increase in planned expenditures as a good thing. “The company’s EV lineup features what we view as attractive products, such as the Mustang Mach-E, E-Transit commercial van, and F-150 Lightning. More specifically on pickups, Ford expects one-third of all full-size pickup sales to be electric by 2030, and we expect the F-150 Lightning to be among the industry leaders given its features and price point.”

The F-150 Lightning will offer competitive range, pricing, and performance options to compete with the Tesla Cybertruck and Rivian R1T. While it is still up in the air on what each automaker will deliver when their vehicles make it to customers, Ford offers a robust and strong F-150 comparative that brings some interesting competition to the table in terms of specs. However, Goldman Sachs is more concerned about Ford’s plan to tackle price parity, the relationship between the price of electric cars and gas cars.

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“One of the key debates we expect among investors will be on EV profitability on a like-for-like basis with ICE. While we believe that Ford is moving in the right direction with a modular EV architecture and that its target to be under $100 per kWh by mid-decade will be competitive for the industry, we expect some peers to be ahead of this,” Goldman’s note says. “Tesla, we believe, is already at/near $100 at the pack level and could be in the $60 range for some models by mid-decade if it executes on its plan from its 2020 Battery Day.”

Tesla (TSLA) shares snatched up by ARK after Battery Day: “It’s going to be hard to catch up”

Tesla’s long-term chipping away at EV technology and battery developments is a key indicator of what is to come for the legacy automakers who are just getting into the sector of electrification. While Ford has a lineup of great products and EV releases that are expected to begin production in the coming years, Tesla’s seniority in the sector will always be a thorn in the side of traditional companies until, and if, they can catch up. Ultimately, until these companies can match Tesla’s pricing points, other companies will be offering inferior products at a higher price, boding well for Tesla’s domination of the ever-growing EV sector.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas.

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Credit: Tesla China

One of the United States’ largest pension funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), has stated that it will be voting against Elon Musk’s 2025 Tesla CEO performance award. 

Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas. Company executives have stated that the upcoming vote will decide Tesla’s fate in the years to come.

Why Calpers opposes Musk’s 2025 performance award

In a statement shared with Bloomberg News, a Calpers spokesperson criticized the scale of Musk’s proposed deal. Calpers currently holds about 5 million Tesla shares, giving its stance meaningful influence among institutional investors.

“The CEO pay package proposed by Tesla is larger than pay packages for CEOs in comparable companies by many orders of magnitude. It would also further concentrate power in a single shareholder,” the spokesperson stated.

This is not the first time Calpers has opposed a major Musk pay deal. The fund previously voted against a $56 billion package proposed for Musk and criticized the CEO’s 2018 performance-based plan, which was perceived as unrealistic due to its ambitious nature at the time. Musk’s 2018 pay plan was later struck down by a Delaware court, though Tesla is currently appealing the decision.

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Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award will result in him becoming a trillionaire, he would not be able to receive any compensation from Tesla unless aggressive operational and financial targets are met. For Musk to receive his full compensation, for example, he would have to grow Tesla’s market cap from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, effectively making it the world’s most valuable company by a mile. 

Musk has also maintained that his 2025 performance award is not about compensation. It’s about his controlling stake at Tesla. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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Investor's Corner

Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

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Credit: Tesla

Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.

The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.

Robotaxi and Optimus momentum

Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.

“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.

Still a Neutral rating

Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation. 

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“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.

Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.

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