Investor's Corner
Tesla’s experience in electric cars emphasized anew after Mercedes EQC reveal
Earlier today, Tesla stock was given a Sell rating by Goldman Sachs, citing the arrival of competitors from established automakers. Some of these competitors are dubbed as “Tesla Killers,” such as the Jaguar I-PACE and the Mercedes-Benz EQC. The financial firm’s renewed Sell rating on Tesla appears to have affected the sentiment of some investors, resulting in TSLA stock ending the day down 4.21% at $288.95 per share.
Earlier today, the electric car industry also welcomed its latest vehicle from legacy automaker Mercedes-Benz. At an event in Stockholm, Sweden, Daimler AG Chief Executive Officer Dieter Zetsche unveiled the Mercedes-Benz EQC, an all-electric crossover SUV that symbolizes the company’s commitment to the upcoming electrification of the transport industry.
“There is no alternative to betting on electric cars, and we’re going all in. It is starting right now,” Zetsche said.
Mercedes-Benz tried hard with the EQC, with Zetsche stating that the vehicle will be profitable, and that it would “offer the best package” compared to rivals. The EQC also looks very much like a conventional Merc SUV, with its almost understated lines, its high ground clearance, and its tough stance. The EQC’s basic specs are quite decent, with two electric motors that produce 402 hp and 564 lb-ft of torque. The SUV can accelerate from 0-60 mph in 4.9 seconds and hit a top speed of around 112 mph. That being said, the Mercedes-Benz EQC’s range and production date ultimately prove that it won’t be so easy for legacy automakers to gain EV expertise that is comparable to Tesla’s.
The Mercedes-Benz EQC is equipped with an 80 kWh battery pack, which puts its size between the base Model X’s 75 kWh battery pack and the Jaguar I-PACE’s 90 kWh battery. Despite its generous battery size, the EQC’s estimated range is very conservative at around 200 miles per charge. Charging the vehicle from 10% to 80% is also estimated to take around 40 minutes. The EQC’s apparent lack of range has not gone unnoticed. Alex Roy, a veteran of the auto industry, for one, noted that the EQC’s range was a big “miss” for the established German automaker.
In a way, this could be attributed to Mercedes-Benz’s lack of experience in designing and building all-electric cars. And it’s not just Mercedes-Benz, either. Jaguar’s I-PACE is listed with a 240-mile range, but informal, real-world tests online have noted that the vehicle’s battery consumption is quite high. The same could be true for the EQC. It might have a big enough battery, but it could prove to be the electric equivalent of a gas guzzler.
This is something that Tesla has refined over the years. Elon Musk has opted to develop Tesla’s battery packs and even its software in-house, allowing the company to create vehicles that just work. In terms of range, Tesla’s cars usually come very close to their rated range, in some instances even exceeding it. Even the Model X 75D — one of Tesla’s largest, heaviest offerings — could go as far as 237 miles with a 75 kWh battery. Tesla’s progress in developing and building electric cars ultimately cannot be discounted, as Volkswagen AG, a prominent German automaker, was one of the investors willing to help fund Tesla’s attempted privatization.
Another notable detail from the Mercedes-Benz EQC’s unveiling that validated Tesla’s experience in building electric cars is the German-made SUV’s production timeline. Mercedes expects to start manufacturing the EQC sometime next year, with deliveries beginning in 2020. Compared to Tesla’s hyper-aggressive timetables, Mercedes-Benz’s timeline is very conservative, especially considering that the automaker is looking to build the EQC in some of its existing facilities.
A Tesla Model 3 being assembled.
There is very little doubt that Tesla is the company that ultimately made electric cars desirable, proving to consumers that battery-powered vehicles are actually realistic alternatives to fossil fuel-powered cars. Since starting the production of the Tesla Roadster, the company has gained a lot of experience, a lot of it coming from trial and error. Over the years, Tesla has refined its battery technology, to the point where the company is now attempting to hit a battery pack cost of $100 per kWh. Its 2170 cells that power the Model 3 are also proving to be impressive, with Detroit veteran Sandy Munro praising it as some of the finest batteries he has ever analyzed.
A central part of the Tesla Killer thesis is that competitors from established automakers can easily catch up and overtake the California-based company with vehicles that are far superior in quality and performance. If the range and estimated delivery date of the Mercedes-Benz EQC are any indication, it appears that the arrival of these competitors might be just a little bit too late. After all, by 2020, Tesla is planning to start the production of the next-generation Tesla Roadster, a supercar to end all supercars. The Tesla Model Y, a CUV expected to be even more popular than the Model 3, would likely be in production by then as well.
Watch the Mercedes-Benz EQC’s unveiling in the video below.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
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