Investor's Corner
Tesla Gigafactory 3 passes major inspection amid V10’s introduction in China
Recent reports from local Chinese media have revealed that Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 complex has achieved yet another milestone. After a series of inspections on Gigafactory 3’s Phase 1 construction zone, officials have granted a ” comprehensive acceptance” of the site, paving the way for the start of Model 3 production operations in the near future.
Officials from the Lingang District Construction Project Management Service Center’s organized planning, construction, fire protection, lightning protection, archives, and other professional inspection departments conducted a meeting about their respective evaluations of the Gigafactory 3 Phase 1 site on September 12. Zhu Xiaolu, Vice President of Tesla Global and President of Greater China, was in attendance during the meeting.
As noted by local news agency Beijing News Finance, each of Gigafactory 3’s professional lines was extensively evaluated by the officials, together with the materials used by Tesla’s construction partner for the site. Each of Gigafactory 3’s lines in the Phase 1 zone was able to gain approval from the inspectors.
The newly granted comprehensive acceptance for Gigafactory 3’s Phase 1 construction stands as yet another indication that initial operations in the massive Shanghai-based site are about to begin. With inspections for the Phase 1 area completed, Tesla could start trial production runs of the Model 3 as soon as facilities such as the southwest substation are ready for activation.
Amidst the newly granted comprehensive acceptance of Gigafactory 3’s Phase 1 buildout, Tesla has also started rolling out its V10 Update to members of China’s Early Access Program. Social media posts from the local Tesla community indicate that V10 is full of fun, new features that include curated local applications geared towards the Chinese market, including popular video streaming platforms IQiyi and Tencent Video.
-->Tesla’s announcement of its V10 release in China was a bit more formal than its low-key release to members of the Early Access Program in the United States. Promotional images for V10, for example, featured a dedicated teaser for the new Tesla Theater function and its support for local streaming services. Based on social media reports from the local Tesla community, the V10 Update appears to be well appreciated. Images of V10’s updated visuals, for one, were described as a pleasant gift from the electric car maker just as the country is celebrating its Mid-Autumn Festival.
The success of Tesla’s push into the lucrative Chinese EV market will likely be determined by the company’s capability to effectively roll out the made-in-China Model 3 and Model Y from Gigafactory 3. The Shanghai-based site is designed to exclusively produce affordable versions of the Model 3 and the Model Y for the Chinese market. Thus, the facility is optimized for volume electric vehicle production, with an output that is appropriate for the country’s large auto market.
Tesla has implemented a number of optimizations to accomplish these goals. Unlike its electric car production process in the United States, which involves vehicle assembly being performed at the Fremont factory and battery and drive unit production being conducted in Gigafactory 1 at Nevada, the Shanghai Gigafactory 3 will produce batteries and drive units, and perform vehicle assembly in one site. This is expected to significantly improve Tesla’s manufacturing process, allowing the company to avoid most of the challenges it faced in its initial Model 3 ramp in the United States.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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