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Elon Musk’s Tesla insurance plans could ultimately prove Warren Buffett wrong

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During Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk mentioned that the electric car maker is coming up with an insurance service for its vehicles. Musk noted that Tesla’s insurance plan would be unique in a way that it will leverage customer data collected from its fleet of vehicles. This will, according to the CEO, create a program that is “much more compelling than anything else” in the market.

Such statements sound very optimistic, and in true Elon Musk fashion, the CEO raised the bar for the upcoming service higher, adding that Tesla’s insurance program could see a launch as early as next month. These targets were unsurprisingly met with much skepticism. Tesla’s avid critics dismissed the plan and Musk’s comments as another “funding secured” moment, and even experienced investors expressed their doubts about the program’s potential success.

Doubts from the Oracle

Arguably the most notable critic of Tesla’s insurance plan is financial titan Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Speaking at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday, Buffett noted that Elon Musk’s insurance aspirations would likely fail. “It’s not an easy business. The success of the auto companies getting into the insurance business is probably as likely as the success of the insurance companies getting into the auto business,” he said.

The financial titan explained further, stating that veteran automaker General Motors had unsuccessfully attempted a similar program in the past under its Motors Insurance Company. Though Buffett, fondly known in the investment world as the “Oracle from Omaha,” admitted that the trove of data that Tesla gathers from its fleet, he argued that the electric car maker would likely not make money in its insurance endeavors.

“And I would bet against any company in the auto business (getting into insurance) being any kind of an unusual success. The idea of using telematics in terms of studying people — it is important to have data on how people drive, how hard they brake, how much they swerve, all kinds of things. So I don’t doubt the value of the data. But I don’t think the auto companies will have any advantage to that. I don’t think they’ll make money in the insurance business,” Buffett explained.

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A case for Tesla’s insurance plans

Buffett holds a lot of authority in the insurance industry, with Berkshire having Geico and General Reinsurance among its numerous subsidiaries. Yet, despite these concerns, Elon Musk’s plan for Tesla’s own insurance program could actually work. Contrary to speculations from the company’s critics suggesting that Musk is merely shooting from the hip, Tesla is actually working with experienced insurance firms to develop its own program. Among these is Markel Corporation (ironically dubbed at times as a “mini-Berkshire” stock). During the firm’s quarterly conference call last week, co-CEO Richard Whitt stated that one of Markel’s subsidiaries, State National, will provide the fronting for Tesla’s insurance.

“Often the people that have these innovative ideas have a hard time navigating the regulatory environment and being able to execute quite honestly on their innovative ideas. That’s where State National can come to the table and help them. In the case of the partnership with Tesla, State National is providing just that. They’re supporting innovative solutions that Tesla has [created] with risk-taking partners. And I don’t want to say any more than that, because obviously Tesla and the risk-taking partner have many things they probably want to say about the arrangement,” Whitt said.

Another advantage that Tesla might have with its upcoming program is that Elon Musk’s primary goal is likely not to “make money in the insurance business” in the near-term. Instead of chasing profits immediately after its rollout, Tesla’s insurance could simply be rolled out as a means to streamline the ownership experience of the company’s electric cars further. Together with several inherent advantages of the company’s vehicles, such as the absence of fuel purchases, affordable Supercharging rates, and unique driving dynamics offered by their all-electric powertrain, having a customized, worry-free insurance service could be yet another factor that can make Teslas attractive to car buyers.

A lot of the details surrounding Tesla’s insurance plans are yet to be announced, and it remains to be seen if the company could ultimately pull off an endeavor that could prove the world’s third-richest person wrong. Ultimately, just as it was far too early to discount SpaceX after the initial failures of the Falcon 1 rocket, it might simply be far too early to dismiss Elon Musk’s plans for Tesla’s own insurance program.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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