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Tesla has little to fear in China from competition, “nobody can compete” says analyst

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Alexander Potter, analyst for Piper Jaffrays, said in a note to clients Tuesday that Tesla has little to fear when it comes to being competitive in China. In fact, Potter went as far as saying that “nobody can compete” with the California-based electric car maker in the word’s largest auto market, largely due to the company’s product and brand reputation.

“After meeting with an electric vehicle (EV) trade group this week in Beijing, we still think Tesla has little to fear from Chinese brands, at least based on the current competitive landscape,” said Potter. Piper Jaffray reaffirmed its position on the company, giving Tesla shares an overweight rating and a price target of $386 per share, or roughly a 10 percent upside to Monday’s close. The firm has a buy rating for shares of TSLA.

“Branding and performance are just as important, and in this regard, we think nobody (least of all Chinese OEMs) can compete with TSLA.” reports CNBC. Goldman Sachs which has generally maintained a bearish outlook on Tesla raised their price target from $180 to $190 on Friday.

Despite a strong effort by local car manufacturers to bring electric cars to the market: the country is reportedly working on plans to ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, the product stands far apart from Tesla’s Model S and Model X currently being sold in China.

“Anyone who has taken a ride in a Chinese EV will tell you that, like most other Chinese sedans, these vehicles just aren’t compelling consumer products,” read the note from Piper Jaffrays.

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In addition to Tesla’s positive brand reputation, the electric carmaker continues to make strides in the market by adapting to local standards. Just yesterday, Tesla announced that new Model S and Model X vehicles being produced specifically for China will have a charging port to support national charging standards. The company has also pledged to rapidly expand its high-powered, fast-charging Supercharger network in China, announcing that it will install 1,000 Superchargers in China by the end of the year. A recent sighting of what is likely to become the world’s largest Supercharger points to a 40 to 60-stall installation in Shanghai’s Commercial Centre.

Potter also notes in his report that China will have a mandate in 2019 for the number of electric vehicles being produced by auto makers. “Companies that fail to achieve the quotas will be able to buy credits from companies that exceed the quotas,” said Potter, giving Tesla yet another advantage over local competition. China sold 507,000 new energy vehicles in 2016, a 50 percent increase over the year prior.

Tesla stock is up roughly 64 percent this year.

I'm friendly. You can email me. gene@teslarati.com

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Cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award

To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.

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Credit: IIHS/YouTube

The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025. 

The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.

Cybertruck’s IIHS rating

As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.

The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.

Safest and most autonomous pickup

The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.

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Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales. 

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Tesla stands to gain from Ford’s decision to ditch large EVs

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

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Credit: Tesla

Ford’s recent decision to abandon production of the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning after the 2025 model year should yield some advantages for Tesla.

The Detroit-based automaker’s pivot away from large EVs and toward hybrids and extended-range EVs that come with a gas generator is proof that sustainable powertrains are easy on paper, but hard in reality.

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

Here’s why:

Reduced Competition in the Electric Pickup Segment

The F-150 Lightning was the Tesla Cybertruck’s primary and direct rival in the full-size electric pickup market in the United States. With Ford’s decision to end pure EV production of its best-selling truck’s electric version and shifting to hybrids/EREVs, the Cybertruck faces significantly less competition.

Credit: Tesla

This could drive more fleet and retail buyers toward the Cybertruck, especially those committed to fully electric vehicles without a gas generator backup.

Strengthened Market Leadership and Brand Perception in Pure EVs

Ford’s pullback from large EVs–citing unprofitability and lack of demand for EVs of that size–highlights the challenges legacy automakers face in scaling profitable battery-electric vehicles.

Tesla, as the established leader with efficient production and vertical integration, benefits from reinforced perception as the most viable and committed pure EV manufacturer.

Credit: Tesla

This can boost consumer confidence in Tesla’s long-term ecosystem over competitors retreating to hybrids. With Ford making this move, it is totally reasonable that some car buyers could be reluctant to buy from other legacy automakers.

Profitability is a key reason companies build cars; they’re businesses, and they’re there to make money.

However, Ford’s new strategy could plant a seed in the head of some who plan to buy from companies like General Motors, Stellantis, or others, who could have second thoughts. With this backtrack in EVs, other things, like less education on these specific vehicles to technicians, could make repairs more costly and tougher to schedule.

Potential Increases in Market Share for Large EVs

Interestingly, this could play right into the hands of Tesla fans who have been asking for the company to make a larger EV, specifically a full-size SUV.

Customers seeking large, high-capability electric trucks or SUVs could now look to Tesla for its Cybertruck or potentially a future vehicle release, which the company has hinted at on several occasions this year.

With Ford reallocating resources away from large pure EVs and taking a $19.5 billion charge, Tesla stands to capture a larger slice of the remaining demand in this segment without a major U.S. competitor aggressively pursuing it.

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Ford cancels all-electric F-150 Lightning, announces $19.5 billion in charges

“Rather than spending billions more on large EVs that now have no path to profitability, we are allocating that money into higher returning areas, more trucks and van hybrids, extended range electric vehicles, affordable EVs, and entirely new opportunities like energy storage.”

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Credit: Ford Motor Co.

Ford is canceling the all-electric F-150 Lightning and also announced it would take a $19.5 billion charge as it aims to quickly restructure its strategy regarding electrification efforts, a massive blow for the Detroit-based company that was once one of the most gung-ho on transitioning to EVs.

The announcement comes as the writing on the wall seemed to get bolder and more identifiable. Ford was bleeding money in EVs and, although it had a lot of success with the all-electric Lightning, it is aiming to push its efforts elsewhere.

It will also restructure its entire strategy on EVs, and the Lightning is not the only vehicle getting the boot. The T3 pickup, a long-awaited vehicle that was developed in part of a skunkworks program, is also no longer in the company’s plans.

Instead of continuing on with its large EVs, it will now shift its focus to hybrids and “extended-range EVs,” which will have an onboard gasoline engine to increase traveling distance, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“Ford no longer plans to produce select larger electric vehicles where the business case has eroded due to lower-than-expected demand, high costs, and regulatory changes,” the company said in a statement.

While unfortunate, especially because the Lightning was a fantastic electric truck, Ford is ultimately a business, and a business needs to make money.

Ford has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023, and company executives are more than aware that they gave it plenty of time to flourish.

Andrew Frick, President of Ford, said:

“Rather than spending billions more on large EVs that now have no path to profitability, we are allocating that money into higher returning areas, more trucks and van hybrids, extended range electric vehicles, affordable EVs, and entirely new opportunities like energy storage.”

CEO Jim Farley also commented on the decision:

“Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting.”

Farley also said that the company now knows enough about the U.S. market “where we have a lot more certainty in this second inning.”

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