Investor's Corner
A familiar Tesla foe has placed a $530 million bet against the stock
A familiar foe to Elon Musk’s electric car company Tesla has revisited his doubt for the stock. Michael Burry, famous for “The Big Short,” has reiterated his short position against Tesla as a new 13-F filing with the SEC reveals he has placed a $530 million bet against the company.
Burry was made famous in the late 2000s as the mortgage crisis made him and his investors billions of dollars. Because of this, investors tend to take Burry’s analysis of stocks with plenty of credibilities. However, Burry’s short position against Tesla isn’t new, and he has looked at Tesla in the past as an opportunity to make money off a short position.
The 13-F filing with the SEC revealed that Burry bought more than 800,000 Tesla put options contracts in Q1 worth $534.4 million. Puts provide investors with gains when underlying securities drop in price. Tesla has not had a great 2021 on Wall Street, based on relatively bearish news coverage that hasn’t been substantiated or confirmed by Tesla itself. On several occasions, large media outlets have run with stories with no identifiable source. Local, named, and credible sources have stepped forward on several occasions to debunk claims regarding Tesla’s shortcomings.
A few examples have dealt with the news of delays at production facilities that Tesla is building or expanding upon. Both Giga Shanghai in China and Giga Berlin in Germany have been subjected to news of delays; Shanghai in Tesla’s attempt to expand the factory’s footprint to increase already active manufacturing output, and Berlin has been plagued with rumors of an early 2022 start date, a timeline that doesn’t add up to Tesla’s estimations.
Both of these reports have been disproven by local sources. In Shanghai, workers who are responsible for the construction of a new expansion of the Chinese plant indicated that there are no delays or halts. Giga Berlin’s delays were debunked by local politician Jörg Steinbach, who stated that he expects the factory to begin production in late-Summer or early-Autumn.
-->EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Giga Berlin isn’t facing a 6-month delay: German Minister
Most of the criticism in terms of Tesla’s financials comes from its sale of regulatory credits to other automakers. The sale of these credits helps automakers who have not yet transitioned to manufacturing electric powertrains reach lofty emissions goals set by the European Union. Volkswagen recently stated that it will continue buying the credits and will depend on them for another 3-5 years. Other companies, like Fiat, which Stellantis obtained, indicated that it would no longer need to purchase these credits. However, some analysts have not agreed with the opinion that Tesla will need to sell credits to remain profitable.
Burry said in January that Tesla investors should “enjoy it while it lasts,” referring to the over 700% increase in stock price that occurred last year. So far, in 2021, Tesla is down around 21%.
Tesla delivered its seventh-consecutive profitable quarter with the Q1 2021 Earnings Call in April. The same quarter yielded record deliveries despite only the Model 3 and Model Y being produced.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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