Investor's Corner
Tesla’s military veteran hires are a perfect fit for Fremont’s high-tempo culture
In California, US military veterans are finding a place where they could thrive. Through its “Veterans at Tesla” program, Tesla is putting a special focus on placing more former military personnel in leadership positions. In the Fremont factory alone, veterans are utilizing their skills to help the company in its mission to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
Navy and Marine Corps veteran Kristen Kavanaugh is one of these leaders. The veteran, who served in Iraq and joined the electric car maker in 2016, currently serves as the head of Leadership Development for Tesla. She also heads the electric car maker’s Veterans Task Force, which helps former military personnel grow and advance to leadership positions within the company. Speaking with the CBS San Francisco, Kavanaugh notes that Tesla’s intense work culture is familiar territory to former military personnel.
“Our veterans have deployed. They’ve worked under stressful conditions, they are used to high operational tempo, and that’s what we have here at Tesla, and it just seems like a natural fit for what veterans are bringing to the table, and then what Tesla is offering them from a career advancement standpoint,” she said.
The “Veterans at Tesla” program has been growing steadily over the years. The Fremont factory, for one, employs about 10,000 workers. Across the company, around 800 former military service members have been hired this year so far. The number continues to grow, and members of the program are continually looking to move up the chain of command.
Speaking to CBS, Ryan (last name not given), who worked as a logistics specialist in the Marine Corps, noted that his work at the electric car maker is quite similar to his tasks in the military. He further stated that his civilian career had been all but re-energized by his work at Tesla.
“Instead of beans, bullets, and band-aids, we make sure that this plastic or aluminum part gets delivered on time so it can be put into the cars. Not since I left the Marines have I felt a sense of purpose like I have at Tesla. We’re not just making cars. We’re changing the world and history has its eyes on you,” he said.
When Elon Musk was trying to get SpaceX off the ground, he and his growing team of employees wanted the best that the talent pool had to offer. Operating under Silicon Valley principles, the company expects its employees to push incredibly hard to meet targets. Thus, for the private space firm, its recruiting pitch was simple — SpaceX was “special forces” — and it was this pitch that ultimately attracted talent that helped the company achieve the milestones it has attained over the years.
The same could be said of Tesla. The company has grown significantly over the 15 years it has existed, and it has reached a point where it is disrupting the auto market and challenging legacy carmakers like Ford and GM head-on. As noted by Elon Musk in a recent interview with tech journalist Kara Swisher at the Recode Decode podcast, though, Tesla’s growth over the years was only possible through exhausting work from himself and the company’s employees. When asked what Musk gives credit to with regards to Tesla’s survival so far, the CEO noted that it was due to “excruciating effort,” and “hundred-hour weeks by everyone.”
As proven by the company’s profitability in the third quarter, such exhausting efforts are starting to pay off. With these accomplishments in mind, much credit is due to the company’s own “special forces,” who have gone from the frontlines of the battlefield to the demanding pressures of Tesla’s production lines.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
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For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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