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Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week

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After spending more than a year deep in “manufacturing hell,” Tesla passed a milestone in its Model 3 production. The company registered two large batches of Model 3 VINs this weekend, effectively passing the 100,000-mark for the electric sedan’s filings.

Tesla’s 100,000 Model 3 VIN milestone comes roughly a week after the company registered a record 16,000 new VINs in a seven-day period. With the addition of the 2,207 registered this Saturday and 6,836 VINs registered on Sunday, Tesla has now filed a total of 108,188 Model 3 VINs since starting the production of the electric car last July.

The Model 3 ramp was an ambitious goal for Tesla, and it came at a great cost for the company and its CEO. In an interview last month, Elon Musk dubbed the Model 3 ramp was a “bet-the-company” situation, where the vehicle’s failure would have resulted in the fall of Tesla. The production ramp of the Model 3 has been anything but smooth as well, with Tesla facing bottleneck after bottleneck as it attempted to hit the hyper-aggressive manufacturing goals set forth by Elon Musk.

During the midsize electric car’s handover ceremony, Musk stated that Tesla would be aiming to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of December 2017. This goal was eventually met, though it happened six months late. All this has exhausted Elon Musk, who noted in a recent interview with the New York Times that the past 12 months had been the most “difficult and painful” year of his career.  

Even when Tesla hit its then-elusive goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 in one week, reservations were abounding about the company’s capability to sustain its optimum production rate for the electric sedan. Despite these reservations, signs emerged in July that Tesla might be capable of maintaining its 5,000/week Model 3 ramp. Tesla started test drives for the Model 3 and introduced programs designed to deliver as many vehicles as possible, such as the 5-Minute Sign & Drive system. VIN registrations for the Model 3 picked up as well, with Tesla registering 19,000 new Model 3 VINs during the first half of the month.

Tesla’s capability to sustain its 5,000/week Model 3 production rate was highlighted by the company during its Q2 2018 earnings call, when Elon Musk mentioned that the Model 3 line sustained its 5000/week rate during “multiple weeks” in July. Since then, Tesla’s Model 3 ramp has exhibited even more encouraging signs. Bloomberg‘s production tracker, which has gotten more accurate over the past months (it was only ~2% off its Q2 estimates), now shows that Tesla is pacing to hit a production rate of 6,000 Model 3 weekly. As of writing, the publication’s tracker estimates that Tesla is producing 5,942 Model 3 per week.

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Tesla’s Model 3 production tracker as of August 19, 2018. [Credit: Bloomberg]

The Model 3 production ramp is starting to win over Wall Street. Last week, even noted Tesla bear Toni Sacconaghi from Sanford C. Bernstein, who previously had a $265 price target for Tesla, raised his price target to $325 per share. Jefferies Financial Group, which also had a conservative $250 price target for the company, also raised its price target to $360 per share.

Perhaps the most notable vote of confidence for the Model 3 production ramp came from George Galliers of Evercore ISI, who was given an extensive tour of the Fremont factory, including the sprung structure-based GA4 set up on the facility’s grounds. According to Galliers, Tesla appears to be “well on the way” to hitting a sustained weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The Evercore ISI analyst also noted that Tesla’s current facilities appear to be fully capable of hitting 8,000 Model 3 per week in the future.

“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit,” the Evercore ISI analyst noted. 

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award. 

Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.

ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals. 

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.

“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.

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ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls

Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote

Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package. 

Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights 

In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI.  As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.

“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.

A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award

In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV. 

Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event. 

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