Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week
After spending more than a year deep in “manufacturing hell,” Tesla passed a milestone in its Model 3 production. The company registered two large batches of Model 3 VINs this weekend, effectively passing the 100,000-mark for the electric sedan’s filings.
Tesla’s 100,000 Model 3 VIN milestone comes roughly a week after the company registered a record 16,000 new VINs in a seven-day period. With the addition of the 2,207 registered this Saturday and 6,836 VINs registered on Sunday, Tesla has now filed a total of 108,188 Model 3 VINs since starting the production of the electric car last July.
#Tesla registered 2,207 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 101352. https://t.co/IKvPZI3hqC
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) August 18, 2018
#Tesla registered 6,836 new #Model3 VINs. ~73% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 108188. https://t.co/Wq0Y0kJLkL
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) August 19, 2018
The Model 3 ramp was an ambitious goal for Tesla, and it came at a great cost for the company and its CEO. In an interview last month, Elon Musk dubbed the Model 3 ramp was a “bet-the-company” situation, where the vehicle’s failure would have resulted in the fall of Tesla. The production ramp of the Model 3 has been anything but smooth as well, with Tesla facing bottleneck after bottleneck as it attempted to hit the hyper-aggressive manufacturing goals set forth by Elon Musk.
During the midsize electric car’s handover ceremony, Musk stated that Tesla would be aiming to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of December 2017. This goal was eventually met, though it happened six months late. All this has exhausted Elon Musk, who noted in a recent interview with the New York Times that the past 12 months had been the most “difficult and painful” year of his career.
Even when Tesla hit its then-elusive goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 in one week, reservations were abounding about the company’s capability to sustain its optimum production rate for the electric sedan. Despite these reservations, signs emerged in July that Tesla might be capable of maintaining its 5,000/week Model 3 ramp. Tesla started test drives for the Model 3 and introduced programs designed to deliver as many vehicles as possible, such as the 5-Minute Sign & Drive system. VIN registrations for the Model 3 picked up as well, with Tesla registering 19,000 new Model 3 VINs during the first half of the month.
Tesla’s capability to sustain its 5,000/week Model 3 production rate was highlighted by the company during its Q2 2018 earnings call, when Elon Musk mentioned that the Model 3 line sustained its 5000/week rate during “multiple weeks” in July. Since then, Tesla’s Model 3 ramp has exhibited even more encouraging signs. Bloomberg‘s production tracker, which has gotten more accurate over the past months (it was only ~2% off its Q2 estimates), now shows that Tesla is pacing to hit a production rate of 6,000 Model 3 weekly. As of writing, the publication’s tracker estimates that Tesla is producing 5,942 Model 3 per week.
The Model 3 production ramp is starting to win over Wall Street. Last week, even noted Tesla bear Toni Sacconaghi from Sanford C. Bernstein, who previously had a $265 price target for Tesla, raised his price target to $325 per share. Jefferies Financial Group, which also had a conservative $250 price target for the company, also raised its price target to $360 per share.
Perhaps the most notable vote of confidence for the Model 3 production ramp came from George Galliers of Evercore ISI, who was given an extensive tour of the Fremont factory, including the sprung structure-based GA4 set up on the facility’s grounds. According to Galliers, Tesla appears to be “well on the way” to hitting a sustained weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The Evercore ISI analyst also noted that Tesla’s current facilities appear to be fully capable of hitting 8,000 Model 3 per week in the future.
“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit,” the Evercore ISI analyst noted.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla Full Self-Driving lands in a new country, its 7th
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
