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Tesla’s steadily-improving Model 3 production ramp is starting to win over Wall St.

Published

7 years ago

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True to Elon Musk’s words last month about the challenges Tesla faced during the Model 3 ramp, the company appears to be well on its way to leaving its self-imposed “production hell.” As Tesla’s Model 3 production shows more encouraging signs, Wall Street appears to be adopting an increasingly optimistic outlook on the electric car and energy company.

Amidst the noise surrounding Elon Musk’s tweets about the funding for Tesla’s possible privatization being secured, the company is steadily making progress in an area that matters a lot this Q3 — the Model 3 production ramp. Tesla is currently attempting to hit profitability this Q3, and being the vehicle expected to comprise most of Tesla’s electric car sales for the quarter, the Model 3 is key to this goal.

Tesla was finally able to hit its self-imposed target of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week during the final week of June. When the company released its Q2 production and deliveries report, some Wall St. analysts promptly expressed their doubts about the company’s capability to sustain the car’s optimum production rate. In the weeks that followed the release of the Q2 production and deliveries report, Tesla showed signs that it is capable of sustaining the optimum production pace of the Model 3. Hiring was ramped, more than 19,000 new Model 3 VINs were filed in a 2-week period, test drives for the Model 3 were started, and programs such as the 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery system were adopted. The Model 3’s sustained production was ultimately confirmed in the Q2 earnings call when Musk noted that Tesla was able to manufacture 5,000 Model 3 per week during “multiple weeks” in July.

Tesla has exhibited the same encouraging signs this August. Just recently, the company registered a record 16,000 new Model 3 VINs in a seven-day period — a feat that took the company roughly eight months to accomplish when it first started producing the electric car. Tesla appears to have begun initiatives to bring the Model 3 overseas as well, with viewings being scheduled for Australia and New Zealand. Even more recently, George Galliers of Evercore ISI, after a tour of the Fremont factory, released a note stating that Tesla is likely well on its way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The analyst even noted that despite the controversy over the company’s possible privatization, the fundamentals of Tesla’s operations are encouraging.

“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit.” 

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The Evercore ISI analyst is not alone in his optimistic outlook on Tesla, either. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who previously had a $265 price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), recently raised his price target for the company to $325 per share. Sacconaghi is not even an avid supporter of Elon Musk, being one of the analysts who attracted the CEO’s ire during the now-infamous Q1 earnings call, where he asked what Musk described as “boneheaded” questions.

Jefferies Financial Group also lifted their price objective for Tesla from a conservative $250 to an optimistic $360 in a report issued last week. The firm also gave Tesla stock a “Neutral” rating. Berenberg Bank reissued a “Buy” rating for Tesla stock, placing a price objective of $500 for the company’s shares. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which still has a “Sell” rating on TSLA, raised its price target to $308, a significant increase from its previous price target of $195.

While Tesla stock remains a battleground between the company’s supporters and critics, Wall Street seems to be showing signs that it is starting to adopt a more optimistic stance on the electric car maker. If the company’s new price targets from Wall Street are any indication, it appears that even firms that have been critical of Tesla are starting to recognize and acknowledge the progress the electric car maker is making. If Tesla nails its Model 3 targets this Q3 by sustaining the vehicle’s production at a rate of 5,000 units per week or more, Elon Musk’s vision of a profitable Tesla might actually come true. 

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up 0.51% at $340.43 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations

Published

12 hours ago

on

April 1, 2025

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”

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It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.

Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.

However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:

“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”

Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.

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He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:

“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”

The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) shares company-compiled Q1 2025 delivery consensus

Analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025.

Published

2 days ago

on

March 31, 2025

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q1 2025 company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Based on Tesla’s release, it appears that analysts are expecting Tesla to post conservative vehicle delivery results for the first quarter.

Images of Tesla’s Q1 2025 company-compiled consensus were shared recently on social media. 

The Consensus

As could be seen in Tesla’s first quarter 2025 company-compiled vehicle delivery consensus, analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025. Analysts expect this number to be comprised of 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 other models.

The company-compiled consensus also suggests that Tesla will see total deliveries of 1,851,001 vehicles this Full Year 2025. From this number, analysts expect 1,693,397 units of the Model 3 and Model Y and 145,162 units of Tesla’s other models.

The sources

Tesla’s company-compiled consensus was based on estimates from 27 firms. These include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, Barclays, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair. 

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FactSet expectations

As noted in an Investor’s Business Daily report, FactSet estimates suggest that Tesla will see vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in Q1 2025. Such a number is quite optimistic considering that Tesla’s sales of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s transition to the new Model Y. 

Beyond Q1 deliveries, Tesla’s first quarter vehicle delivery results could trigger revisions to the company’s full-year delivery and earnings forecasts. FactSet data shows Q1 earnings estimates hitting 48 cents per share, down from 57 cents in late January and 74 cents late last year. For 2025, analysts now see earnings per share climbing 13% to $2.74, a drop from $3.31 before the Q4 earnings release.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk clarifies Trump tariff effect on Tesla: “The cost impact is not trivial”

The U.S. President has stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s tariffs.

Published

6 days ago

on

March 27, 2025

By

MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles starting next week would affect American electric car maker Tesla. 

This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a recent post on social media platform X.

Musk and Trump

While Elon Musk works closely with the Trump administration due to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the U.S. president has emphasized that the Tesla CEO never asks for favors. This was highlighted in his recent comments, when he stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s 25% auto tariffs.

When asked by reporters if the new tariffs would be good for Tesla, Trump noted that they may be “net neutral or they may be good.” The U.S. president also pointed to Tesla’s automotive plants in Fremont, California and Austin, Texas, which produce vehicles that are sold in the country. “Anybody that has plants in the United States — it’s going to be good for them,” Trump noted.

Tesla Affected

In a post on X, Elon Musk clarified that the Trump administration’s tariffs would affect the prices of vehicle parts that are sourced from other countries. This was a concern that Tesla previously outlined in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, which noted that even with “aggressive localization” of its supply chain, “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.”

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As per Musk in his recent post on X, the cost impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs is no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in his post.

Potential Effects

Reactions to Musk’s comments from users of the social media platform were varied, with some speculating that the Trump auto tariffs could result in Teslas becoming more expensive in the United States. Despite this, the potential increases in Tesla’s vehicle prices might not be as notable as other cars, particularly those that are produced outside the country.

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