Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 becomes August’s 5th best-selling passenger car, 15th in US’ overall auto sales
Tesla took longer than expected to ramp the production of the Model 3, but now the company is finally hitting its manufacturing stride, and the electric sedan is starting to make waves in the US auto industry — some very serious waves.
Auto sales tracking website GoodCarBadCar has posted the estimated sales figures of car manufacturers currently operating in the United States in August. Based on their August 2018 data, the Tesla Model 3 has become America’s 5th best-selling passenger car. The electric car’s rankings for August is up two places from its rank in July, when the Model 3 was listed as the 7th best-selling passenger car in the US.
The auto sales tracking website now lists the Model 3 directly behind the big four of the US passenger car segment — the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, the Honda Accord, and the Toyota Corolla Family — all of which are lower-priced than the electric car. The Model 3’s strong August sales figures allowed it to overtake two more affordable vehicles in GCBC‘s rankings as well, the Hyundai Elantra and the Nissan Altima.
The Tesla Model 3 is not just establishing itself as a formidable competitor in the US’ passenger car market, either. The Model 3 also made it to the Top 20 of GoodCarBadCar‘s overall rankings for US auto sales, which include SUVs and trucks such as the best-selling Ford F-150, the Dodge RAM, the Toyota Rav4, and the Honda CR-V. So far, the Model 3 is 15th on the overall list for August, beating out popular SUVs such as the Jeep Wrangler, Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the Subaru Outback.
The Model 3’s estimated August sales are quite impressive, considering that Tesla is still in the process of ramping the production of the electric car. Tesla, after all, plans to eventually build 10,000 Model 3 per week, and so far, the company is only producing around half of that number weekly.
Tesla ended Q2 2018 on a strong note, producing 5,000 Model 3 vehicles in a seven-day period. Despite this milestone, the company’s critics are highly skeptical that Tesla would be able to maintain its optimum production numbers. That said, over the first two months of Q3, Tesla appears to have taken it upon itself to prove its critics wrong.
During the Q2 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk mentioned that Tesla was able to maintain a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week during “multiple weeks” in July. In August, the company also showed encouraging signs about the electric car’s production. Tesla’s VIN registrations for the Model 3, for one, rocketed past the 100,000-vehicle mark, and Bloomberg‘s online Model 3 production tracker even showed a week where the company seemed to have produced more than 6,000 units of the electric sedan in a seven-day period.
-->Perhaps the most notable vote of confidence for the company’s Model 3 production ramp came from veteran auto analyst George Galliers from Evercore ISI, who was given an extensive tour of the Fremont factory, including the newly built GA4 set up on the grounds of the facility. The analyst later published a report about his visit, noting that Tesla is well on its way to sustaining a weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week.
“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit,” Galliers noted.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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