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Tesla Model 3 VIN registrations rocket past 100k mark as production approaches 6k/week

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After spending more than a year deep in “manufacturing hell,” Tesla passed a milestone in its Model 3 production. The company registered two large batches of Model 3 VINs this weekend, effectively passing the 100,000-mark for the electric sedan’s filings.

Tesla’s 100,000 Model 3 VIN milestone comes roughly a week after the company registered a record 16,000 new VINs in a seven-day period. With the addition of the 2,207 registered this Saturday and 6,836 VINs registered on Sunday, Tesla has now filed a total of 108,188 Model 3 VINs since starting the production of the electric car last July.

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The Model 3 ramp was an ambitious goal for Tesla, and it came at a great cost for the company and its CEO. In an interview last month, Elon Musk dubbed the Model 3 ramp was a “bet-the-company” situation, where the vehicle’s failure would have resulted in the fall of Tesla. The production ramp of the Model 3 has been anything but smooth as well, with Tesla facing bottleneck after bottleneck as it attempted to hit the hyper-aggressive manufacturing goals set forth by Elon Musk.

During the midsize electric car’s handover ceremony, Musk stated that Tesla would be aiming to hit a production rate of 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of December 2017. This goal was eventually met, though it happened six months late. All this has exhausted Elon Musk, who noted in a recent interview with the New York Times that the past 12 months had been the most “difficult and painful” year of his career.  

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Even when Tesla hit its then-elusive goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 in one week, reservations were abounding about the company’s capability to sustain its optimum production rate for the electric sedan. Despite these reservations, signs emerged in July that Tesla might be capable of maintaining its 5,000/week Model 3 ramp. Tesla started test drives for the Model 3 and introduced programs designed to deliver as many vehicles as possible, such as the 5-Minute Sign & Drive system. VIN registrations for the Model 3 picked up as well, with Tesla registering 19,000 new Model 3 VINs during the first half of the month.

Tesla’s capability to sustain its 5,000/week Model 3 production rate was highlighted by the company during its Q2 2018 earnings call, when Elon Musk mentioned that the Model 3 line sustained its 5000/week rate during “multiple weeks” in July. Since then, Tesla’s Model 3 ramp has exhibited even more encouraging signs. Bloomberg‘s production tracker, which has gotten more accurate over the past months (it was only ~2% off its Q2 estimates), now shows that Tesla is pacing to hit a production rate of 6,000 Model 3 weekly. As of writing, the publication’s tracker estimates that Tesla is producing 5,942 Model 3 per week.

Tesla’s Model 3 production tracker as of August 19, 2018. [Credit: Bloomberg]

The Model 3 production ramp is starting to win over Wall Street. Last week, even noted Tesla bear Toni Sacconaghi from Sanford C. Bernstein, who previously had a $265 price target for Tesla, raised his price target to $325 per share. Jefferies Financial Group, which also had a conservative $250 price target for the company, also raised its price target to $360 per share.

Perhaps the most notable vote of confidence for the Model 3 production ramp came from George Galliers of Evercore ISI, who was given an extensive tour of the Fremont factory, including the sprung structure-based GA4 set up on the facility’s grounds. According to Galliers, Tesla appears to be “well on the way” to hitting a sustained weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The Evercore ISI analyst also noted that Tesla’s current facilities appear to be fully capable of hitting 8,000 Model 3 per week in the future.

“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit,” the Evercore ISI analyst noted. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke

Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.

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SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.

Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.

SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13

 

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The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.

Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.

SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid CEO dispels any rumors of bankruptcy: ‘So far from the facts’

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.

The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.

The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”

Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”

Napoli said:

“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.

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As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.

We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.

My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.

I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”

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It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.

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Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.

Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Credit: Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.

Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”

Twork said:

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Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.

Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.

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Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.

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