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Tesla Model 3 has an important upper middle class audience to please
As Elon Musk continues to focus on his top 3 priorities for Tesla, emphasis on preparing for Model 3 production – arguably the most important vehicle in the company’s history – couldn’t be more pertinent.
The Model 3 will be emblematic of Tesla’s capacity to offer a highly safe and efficient means of transport for a middle to upper middle class segment that largely depends on vehicle reliability in order to commute. It looks like these upwardly mobile folks are buying into that Tesla promise (pun intended): by October 2016, nearly 400,000 reservations had already been placed on the Tesla Model 3.
Starting at $35,000 before incentives, the Model 3 will achieve a minimum of 215 miles of range per charge and has been designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category. According to the Tesla website, “The Model 3 combines real world range, performance, safety, and spaciousness into a premium sedan that only Tesla can build.” Potential Model 3 buyers make a reservation through the company’s website by putting down a $1000 deposit. The Model 3 has a starting price of about half the base price of the flagship Tesla Model S and has the size and stance of the Mazda 3.
Jessica Caldwell, an Edmunds.com analyst, argues that, if Tesla Motors wants “to bring the EV to the mass market, they need the Model 3 to be successful.”
The Model 3 will be a sedan, although other versions may one day include a Model Y compact SUV. Base rear-wheel-drive Model 3 vehicles are expected to achieve at least 215-miles of range; all-wheel drive will be offered, and a larger battery capacity with longer range is expected. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability is also expected to be a standard offering.
“This is their chance to prove that they are not just a specialized niche automaker, but actually a long-term volume automaker,” said Karl Brauer, an analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “They have to establish that they can build a high-quality volume vehicle.”
Being upper middle class is a swirling confluence of financial comfort, identity, dreams, and lifestyle options. The Tesla Model 3 may very well become one of the most significant markers of status stability, with its associated components of having a college education, white-collar work, economic security, and home ownership. Soon, many upwardly mobile consumers will be adding “owning a Tesla” to that definition. Indeed, fewer than 5% of reservation holders are likely to choose a minimalist entry level Model 3 car. By contrast, close to 7% say they intend to check every available check box in the Model 3 Design Configurator once it becomes available.
If there’s an option available, the future upscale Tesla Model 3 audience will get it, as the number of options will be new indicators of levels of wealth and class.
Of course, these soon-to-be Tesla owners will have high expectations for all aspects of the Tesla process. First production of Model 3 is still scheduled for mid 2017, while delivery estimates for new reservations are expected to take place mid 2018 or later. Musk admitted that Tesla had hubris in designing and engineering the complicated Model X. As a result, Tesla learned a lot about selling, building, and delivering, which it applied to the Model 3 with much greater production streamlining. “With any new technology, it takes multiple iterations and economies of scale before you can make it affordable,” Musk has said. A mass-market car “was only possible to do . . . after going through the prior steps.”
The Model 3 is the next step in the learning process, but Tesla has done the preparation.
The Model 3 was unveiled in March of 2016 with operational prototype cars. In anticipation of much higher delivery numbers associated with the Model 3, Tesla hired former Audi executive Peter Hochholdinger as its Vice President of Vehicle Production. Hochholdinger had been in charge of production for the A4, A5, and Q5 vehicles, with around 400,000 vehicles per year under his watch. He should be a key asset as Tesla looks to roll out Model 3s in quantities that far exceed the number of cars the company has made to date.
Tesla has dealt lately with some supplier issues and has brought production of some components in-house. Other components, however, continue to be manufactured by established companies. For example, reports indicate that the Model 3’s center touchscreen will be supplied by LG Display.
By spring 2017, Model 3 photos and videos — shot both by bystanders and insiders — should start to circulate. Eventually, too, the government will need to ascertain the safety of Model 3 via crash-testing, and resulting reports will have a big impact on eventual delivery dates.
The Model 3 sedan will use some of the same glass technology that the company is using for its solar roof tiles, which should introduce an upper middle class audience to new ways of thinking about residential energy systems. The Model 3 is said to accelerate with an alluring still rush. It is just that rush— as well as zero-emissions and self-driving capability— that the upper middle class market has been awaiting.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
