Investor's Corner
First Tesla Model 3 Made-in-China unit seemingly sighted in Gigafactory 3 test track
What appeared to be a fully-finished Made-in-China Tesla Model 3 trial production vehicle has been spotted in Gigafactory 3’s test track. The sedan, a black Model 3, was sighted during a recent drone flyover of the Gigafactory 3 complex.
Footage from Tesla enthusiast and drone operator Jason Yang captured a brief glimpse of the apparent Made-in-China Model 3 while it was driving over a section of the massive facility’s test track. The sighting comes as further leaks from Gigafactory 3’s interior revealed the presence of what appeared to be a working Model 3 production line.
⚠️⚠️Breaking⚠️⚠️
Maybe the very first Made in China Model 3 trail production version caught in Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3 recent drone vid. Right next the the white container.
Thx @syyymin for the tips.$TSLA #Tesla #China #MIC #Model3 #GF3 pic.twitter.com/rl1kV9jexF
— vincent (@vincent13031925) October 6, 2019
While neither Tesla nor its construction partner in China has announced if trial Model 3 production runs are already underway in the Shanghai-based site, the presence of a fully-built unit of the best-selling all-electric midsize sedan in the Gigafactory 3 area bodes well for the electric car maker. Recent local reports, after all, suggest that Gigafactory 3’s production activities will start sometime in the middle of this month.
If the vehicle spotted in Yang’s drone flyover was indeed a Made-in-China Model 3, it would suggest that the electric car maker is poised to beat expectations once more. Even the ever-optimistic Elon Musk, after all, announced during the facility’s groundbreaking ceremony last January that he expects trial Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to begin at around the end of the year. Starting in mid-October means that manufacturing activities would begin in early Q4 2019 instead.
— vincent (@vincent13031925) October 6, 2019
Videos and images about Gigafactory 3’s impending Model 3 production have been leaked over the past few weeks. Just recently, an image taken from the interior of Gigafactory 3’s general assembly building depicted eight Model 3 units, some of which were fully assembled and painted. Supercharger stalls have also been set up in the complex, and reports have emerged stating that LG Chem has begun mass production of 2170 cells that will be used for the electric sedan. These updates were shared online amid reports that the construction activities in Gigafactory 3’s Phase 2 area are progressing quickly.
Gigafactory 3 is as important for Tesla as it is for China’s electric car market. China is currently pursuing an aggressive goal for adopting electric transportation, and having a pioneer such as Tesla operating a locally-owned facility will likely increase the rate of EV adoption among local car buyers. This is one of the reasons why Gigafactory 3 is intended to only produce the affordable versions of the Model 3 sedan, and later, the Model Y crossover. By doing so, Tesla could compete in a market that used to be dominated by lower-priced EVs from local manufacturers.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027
Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”
SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.
It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.
Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.
Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2026
There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.
The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures
All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.
If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.
Investor's Corner
Tesla’s flying Roadster just revealed something bigger than the car
Analysts say the Roadster demo puts a Tesla and SpaceX merger back on the table.
The Roadster unveiling near Waco ended Thursday night, and by Friday morning much of the investor reaction had less to do with the car than with who owns the rocket technology inside it.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event “puts the Tesla/SpaceX relationship on the table in a tangible way,” pointing to the propulsion, pressure vessel and control hardware sitting on a Tesla product. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management called the demo “a ridiculous display of engineering” with “no commercial value” beyond embarrassing traditional automakers, though he said it showed Musk wants the two companies together.
The more specific forecast came a day earlier from Barclays. Analyst Dan Levy told clients a deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must happen by December 6, and that an announcement in late October or early November could make shareholder approval harder. Barclays expects SpaceX to be the buyer in an all stock deal, with Tesla holders receiving SpaceX shares at a premium, based on market values of roughly $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla. If nothing lands around the meeting, the bank still sees an announcement within 6 to 12 months.
The Roadster demo just added more weight to merger speculations. Tesla’s demo used cold gas thrusters and pressure tanks of the kind SpaceX uses on Falcon 9, and Musk described the car as a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers, as we mentioned in our breakdown of the three Roadster configurations.
Musk has not publicly addressed a deal since the event, as far as we have seen. His most direct answer remains the one he gave at the All In Summit, when he said that with so much collaboration, “who can imagine what action one might take” without ruling anything out. Ives has held to a 2027 timeline since his March note, and Musk pushed back on the China piece of the speculation when ARK floated a year end announcement in August.
The next test is Tesla’s third quarter earnings call on October 21. However, we recall in July that Musk told analysts, “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a clear answer wouldn’t be expected.