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Tesla’s steadily-improving Model 3 production ramp is starting to win over Wall St.

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True to Elon Musk’s words last month about the challenges Tesla faced during the Model 3 ramp, the company appears to be well on its way to leaving its self-imposed “production hell.” As Tesla’s Model 3 production shows more encouraging signs, Wall Street appears to be adopting an increasingly optimistic outlook on the electric car and energy company.

Amidst the noise surrounding Elon Musk’s tweets about the funding for Tesla’s possible privatization being secured, the company is steadily making progress in an area that matters a lot this Q3 — the Model 3 production ramp. Tesla is currently attempting to hit profitability this Q3, and being the vehicle expected to comprise most of Tesla’s electric car sales for the quarter, the Model 3 is key to this goal.

Tesla was finally able to hit its self-imposed target of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week during the final week of June. When the company released its Q2 production and deliveries report, some Wall St. analysts promptly expressed their doubts about the company’s capability to sustain the car’s optimum production rate. In the weeks that followed the release of the Q2 production and deliveries report, Tesla showed signs that it is capable of sustaining the optimum production pace of the Model 3. Hiring was ramped, more than 19,000 new Model 3 VINs were filed in a 2-week period, test drives for the Model 3 were started, and programs such as the 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery system were adopted. The Model 3’s sustained production was ultimately confirmed in the Q2 earnings call when Musk noted that Tesla was able to manufacture 5,000 Model 3 per week during “multiple weeks” in July.

Tesla has exhibited the same encouraging signs this August. Just recently, the company registered a record 16,000 new Model 3 VINs in a seven-day period — a feat that took the company roughly eight months to accomplish when it first started producing the electric car. Tesla appears to have begun initiatives to bring the Model 3 overseas as well, with viewings being scheduled for Australia and New Zealand. Even more recently, George Galliers of Evercore ISI, after a tour of the Fremont factory, released a note stating that Tesla is likely well on its way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The analyst even noted that despite the controversy over the company’s possible privatization, the fundamentals of Tesla’s operations are encouraging.

“Tesla seems well on the way to achieving a steady weekly production rate of 5,000 to 6,000 units per week. We are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit. We have confidence in their production. We did not see anything to suggest that Model 3 cannot reach 6k units per week and 7k to 8k with very little incremental capital expenditure. Focusing on the fundamentals and setting aside talk of privatization, we are incrementally positive on Tesla following our visit.” 

The Evercore ISI analyst is not alone in his optimistic outlook on Tesla, either. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who previously had a $265 price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), recently raised his price target for the company to $325 per share. Sacconaghi is not even an avid supporter of Elon Musk, being one of the analysts who attracted the CEO’s ire during the now-infamous Q1 earnings call, where he asked what Musk described as “boneheaded” questions.

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Jefferies Financial Group also lifted their price objective for Tesla from a conservative $250 to an optimistic $360 in a report issued last week. The firm also gave Tesla stock a “Neutral” rating. Berenberg Bank reissued a “Buy” rating for Tesla stock, placing a price objective of $500 for the company’s shares. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which still has a “Sell” rating on TSLA, raised its price target to $308, a significant increase from its previous price target of $195.

While Tesla stock remains a battleground between the company’s supporters and critics, Wall Street seems to be showing signs that it is starting to adopt a more optimistic stance on the electric car maker. If the company’s new price targets from Wall Street are any indication, it appears that even firms that have been critical of Tesla are starting to recognize and acknowledge the progress the electric car maker is making. If Tesla nails its Model 3 targets this Q3 by sustaining the vehicle’s production at a rate of 5,000 units per week or more, Elon Musk’s vision of a profitable Tesla might actually come true. 

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up 0.51% at $340.43 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just got the green light Starship has waited years for

The FAA has cleared Starship Flight 14, setting up SpaceX’s first orbital attempt on Monday.

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SpaceX has cleared the last regulatory hurdle standing between Starship and its first trip to orbit. The Federal Aviation Administration issued the launch license for Starship Flight 14 late Saturday, keeping the mission on track for liftoff Monday, September 28, from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas.

The 75 minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central, and Boca Chica Beach closures are also scheduled for September 29 and 30 as backup dates. This will be Starship’s first revenue generating mission.

The license was the missing piece after SpaceX completed a full wet dress rehearsal with Booster 21 and Ship 41 on September 24. At the time, the company said the flight remained on track pending regulatory approval. Because Flight 14 flies an orbital profile, the FAA had to sign off on a modified license that met its safety, payload and financial responsibility requirements.

Observers combing through the new FAA paperwork also noticed that lightning no longer appears among Starship’s listed launch hazards. If that holds, it matters more for where Starship is headed than for Monday’s attempt. Florida and Louisiana, home to LC-39A and the planned Starbase Louisiana site, see some of the most frequent lightning in the United States.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Flight 14 is the mission SpaceX has been building toward for months. Ship 41 will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational V3 units to be deployed, and attempt roughly six orbits at about 275 kilometers over a flight lasting just under 10 hours. SpaceX says the ship will only perform its orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm enough hardware redundancy remains for the deorbit burn at the end of the mission. Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific west of Chile, while Super Heavy will return to the Gulf of Mexico.

The date carries some symbolism as well. A Monday launch would come 10 years and one day after Elon Musk first presented the Interplanetary Transport System, the design that became Starship, at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico.

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SpaceX has not announced what comes next, but air traffic planning slides reported this week, list Flight 15 no earlier than October 19 and a first Starship launch from LC-39A in Florida no earlier than October 30. Both dates depend on how Monday goes.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Optimus Gen 3 shows off a cleaner, factory-ready design in new app discovery

Renders hidden inside Tesla’s Android app show Optimus Gen 3’s design before any official reveal.

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Tesla Optimus Gen 3 [Credit: Tesla]

Tesla may have accidentally given a first look at its newest Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot when photos were found in the Tesla smartphone app.

Design files tucked inside a recent Android version of the Tesla app appear to show the third generation humanoid robot next to the older Gen 2.5 prototype. The assets were extracted from the app package by Tesla community member @wholemars, who posted the renders on X late Tuesday night before deleting them. The Tesla Newswire reshared the side by side comparison on Wednesday, and the images have circulated widely since.

Tesla Optimus Gen 2.5 vs Gen 3 comparison via @WholeMars on X

Tesla Optimus Gen 2.5 vs Gen 3 comparison via @WholeMars on X

The files are labeled “gen3” and were built as models for Tesla app’s own interface, as validated directly by Grok to be official.

The comparison shows a robot that looks built for a factory line rather than a lab bench. Gen 2.5’s exposed mechanical linkages and gold plating on the knees and shins are gone. In their place, Gen 3 uses matte black fairings on the lower legs, paired with a more contoured champagne gold body. Flexible covers now seal the joint where the torso meets the upper thighs, keeping bearings and moving parts sealed from debris and unnecessary contact.

The body panels fit more tightly, and the hands, which Tesla has said carry 22 degrees of freedom, look far more refined than those on earlier units.

This most recent leak fills a gap Tesla has left open for most of the year. Elon Musk said on March 31 that Optimus 3 was walking around but needed “some finishing touches” before it could be shown, a delay Teslarati covered when Tesla missed its first quarter reveal target. Musk later said Tesla would hold the design back until closer to production, partly to keep competitors from copying it. No reveal date has been announced.

The app itself has been preparing for Optimus for months. In July, code in the Tesla app pointed to a dedicated robot phone key, a consent screen for collecting video and spatial data while Optimus works inside a home, and an alert system for low battery and mechanical faults. Finished 3D models of Gen 3 suggest the interface owners will eventually use is moving past placeholder code toward something Tesla intends to ship.

Manufacturing is moving in parallel. Tesla tore out the original Model S and Model X lines at Fremont this summer to make room for Optimus production, with a planned capacity of one million robots a year. At Giga Texas, the steel frame of a dedicated Optimus factory is nearing completion ahead of a targeted 2027 start, with Musk pointing to an eventual output of 10 million units annually.

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Elon Musk

X changed how everyone gets paid, and this lawsuit shows why

X sued a Bitcoin account network over fake payouts as its creator pay model shifts

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Elon Musk’s X has taken a Bitcoin-focused engagement ring to court, and the case doubles as a receipt for how differently the platform pays creators today. The company filed suit in the High Court of England and Wales against Vivek Kumar Sen and Zamyang Sherpa, alleging the pair ran six accounts, including @Vivek4real_, @Bitcoin_Teddy and @TrendingBitcoin, as one coordinated operation to fake the kind of engagement that used to translate directly into money.

According to the filing, first reported by Gizmodo, the accounts posted near identical “BREAKING” crypto headlines seconds apart, in one case 11 seconds, then had three more handles like, reply to and repost the material to manufacture what X called “a false appearance of genuine, human communication and interaction.” X says the scheme pulled in at least £207,384, about $278,000, and pegs its own investigation and remediation costs at another £75,000. The accounts were suspended August 18. X general counsel James Burnham announced the case on X last weekend, writing that the company “will act forcefully to protect our platform and the earnings of genuine creators.” Musk’s own reaction, posted shortly after, was three words: “Don’t mess with 𝕏.”

The timing lines up with a a recent update to how X pays its creators. The program these accounts allegedly gamed, Creator Revenue Sharing, launched in mid 2023 and paid out based on how much a post got engaged with. Originality was never part of the formula, which is exactly how the platform ended up flooded with recycled clips, copy pasted “BREAKING” posts and replies engineered purely to farm reactions from paying subscribers.

X tried patching the model more than once, including an April cut to aggregator payouts and a March regional weighting change that Musk personally paused hours after it was announced. X retired Creator Revenue Sharing for good on September 7 and opened its replacement, Original Content Rewards, the next day.

The new math is stricter. Payouts now come only from qualified impressions, meaning unique Home Timeline views from Premium subscribers where at least half the post is visible, and replies no longer count toward eligibility at all. Copied posts, reuploaded media and reposts without meaningful changes are explicitly excluded. Allegra Jacchia, senior product manager for Creators at SpaceXAI, which now runs X’s product and AI work following xAI’s acquisition of the platform, put it bluntly, saying the goal is to reward creators who bring original ideas and perspective, “not those who have become best at gaming the system.”

Read that way, the lawsuit isn’t really about six crypto accounts. It’s X putting a dollar figure on what the old incentive structure cost, then suing to collect it right as the new one goes live. For live updates on how the case and the new rewards program shake out, follow @Teslarati on X.

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