Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla Model 3 production appears to have surpassed the 6k/week mark

Published

on

Less than a week after crossing the 100,000-vehicle mark in new Model 3 VIN registrations, Tesla has seemingly achieved yet another milestone in its efforts to ramp the production of the electric sedan. After more than a year filled with bottlenecks, missed deadlines, and intense “burst production” weeks, Tesla appears to have achieved a production rate of more than 6,000 vehicles per week.

The updated estimates for Tesla’s Model 3 production are reflected in Bloomberg‘s online tracker, which uses data from official US government resources, social media reports, and direct communication from Tesla owners themselves. The publication’s tracker has gotten more accurate over the past few months, to the point where its Q2 estimates were only off by around 2% from Tesla’s actual figures.

Bloomberg‘s tracker has been showing a steady upward trend in terms of the Model 3’s production since August started. When Tesla registered its 100,000th VIN for the Model 3, the publication’s tracker estimated the company’s weekly production rate for the electric car to be at around 5,800 per week. These figures were updated today, with the production tracker now showing an estimated weekly production rate of 6,278 Model 3 per week.

Bloomberg‘s Tesla Model 3 production tracker as of August 23, 2018. [Credit: Bloomberg]

Tesla’s seemingly improving Model 3 ramp was the product of a long year filled with trials and tribulations for the company and its CEO. Elon Musk recently noted in an interview that the past 12 months, much of which was spent ramping the production of the Model 3, had been one of the most difficult and painful years of his career. Nevertheless, Tesla’s production ramp for the Model 3 appears to have reached a breakthrough sometime in July, following the “burst production week” implemented in the final week of June that enabled the company to produce 5,000 Model 3 per week for the first time. 

During the first weeks of Q3, Tesla exhibited signs that the Model 3’s production was moving at a healthy pace. More than 19,000 new VINs were registered during the first half of July, vehicle delivery systems were optimized, and hiring was also ramped. Musk mentioned the vehicle’s improving production figures during the Q2 2018 earnings call as well, when he stated that Tesla was able to sustain a weekly production rate of 5,000 Model 3 during “multiple weeks” in July.

It should be noted that while manufacturing 6,000 Model 3 per week is a notable feat for Tesla, the vehicle’s production ramp is only a bit more than halfway done. Tesla intends to produce as many as 10,000 Model 3 per week sometime next year, which would enable the company to saturate both the United States and other territories with the electric car. Despite being only halfway complete, the production ramp of the Model 3 is already starting to be felt by the US auto industry. In July alone, the Model 3 was able to outsell the Chevy Bolt EV — arguably its most formidable competitor today — 12:1. The Model 3 was also listed at No. 7 in GoodCarBadCar‘s list of America’s Top 20 Best Selling Cars, which included gas-powered vehicles like the Toyota Camry and the Honda Civic.

Advertisement

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Advertisement
Comments

Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

Published

on

(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

Advertisement

“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

Published

on

Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Published

on

tesla-model-y-giga-texas-logo
(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

Advertisement

Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

Continue Reading

Trending