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Tesla’s more experienced rivals in the US auto market are feeling the Model 3’s presence

[Credit: Avron/Twitter]

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8 years ago

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When Elon Musk wrote about his secret Master Plan in 2006, he envisioned a reasonably-priced electric vehicle that can take on the best-selling fossil fuel-powered cars in the market. It took years, but the electric car that Musk mentioned 12 years ago is here, and it’s called the Tesla Model 3.

The Model 3 is Tesla’s first attempt at creating a mass-market car. The company’s vehicles prior to the Model 3 — the Model S and Model X — sold well, but they were premium vehicles that compete in the luxury segment. The Model 3 was designed to be something else. It was an electric car designed to provide a viable and superior alternative to fossil fuel-powered automobiles. The Model 3 is even priced aggressively, starting at $35,000, or roughly the price of a top-tier Toyota Camry.

Tesla’s ramp of the Model 3 was not easy. In an interview earlier this year, Elon Musk described the past 12 months, much of which was spent ramping the electric sedan’s production, as one of the most painful and difficult years of his career. As Tesla released its Q3 production and delivery numbers, though, it appeared that the electric car maker has finally left Elon Musk’s self-dubbed “production hell.” Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars in Q3, 53,239 of which were Model 3. Deliveries totaled 83,500 vehicles, which included 55,840 Model 3.

There is no denying that Tesla’s production and delivery figures for the Model 3 in Q3 were encouraging. Tesla has not revealed the monthly sales figures of the Model 3 yet, but early estimates of the electric car’s sales in September point to more than 22,000 units being delivered during the month. This particular number is just an estimate, but the rest of the US auto market, including some of the auto industry’s most respected brands, are starting to feel the presence of the Model 3.

One of these carmakers is BMW AG. In a statement to Bloomberg, Bernhard Kuhnt, Chief Executive Officer of BMW North America, acknowledged Tesla’s increasing presence in the auto market. BMW was among the carmakers that saw a small gain in September, though its 1.3% rise was primarily due to the strength of the BMW X3, a crossover SUV that would eventually be challenged by Tesla’s upcoming Model Y. With the Tesla Model 3, BMW’s passenger cars such as the 3-Series and the 5-Series are seeing intense competition.  

“Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment. In that environment, I’m very, very pleased to say we were up,” Kuhnt said.

The Model 3’s presence could also be seen in the performance of Mercedes-Benz on September. The legacy carmaker’s deliveries dropped 9.8% overall, and the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which is among the United States’ best-selling luxury sedans, saw a steep 24% plunge. Lexus, Toyota Motor Corp.’s luxury brand, saw a 6.1% decline in September as well.

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Tesla vehicles in transport trucks. [Credit: Sean Mitchell/Twitter]

Perhaps most notable, though, was the drop in the sales of a vehicle that is as ubiquitous as they come — the Toyota Corolla Family. Last August, auto sales tracking website GoodCarBadCar listed the Model 3 as the 5th best-selling passenger car in the United States, directly behind the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and the Toyota Corolla Family. Toyota revealed that the Corolla Family sold 20,797 units in September, a ~20% decline over its sales in August, when 26,155 units of the vehicles were sold. If the 22,000-unit estimate for the Model 3’s September sale proves accurate, then Tesla’s first attempt at a mass-market electric car might have just dethroned one of America’s favorite low-cost automobiles.

What is particularly impressive with the Model 3 is that the vehicle is priced higher than its competitors at the top of the passenger car segment. If the Model 3 did beat the Corolla Family’s September sales numbers, it would mean that the electric car, whose selling price currently averages $60,000 (only premium variants are available for now), just outsold a vehicle that tops out at $22,730 (Corolla Family XSE). With Tesla seemingly setting the stage for the $35,000 base Model 3, cars like the Honda Civic and the Toyota Camry could find themselves facing some steep competition.

Things are looking optimistic for Tesla’s next quarters. Gigafactory 1 is set to receive upgraded battery cell production lines from Panasonic, and new Grohmann machines are expected to make module production “three times faster and three times cheaper.” Wall Street analyst Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet also noted that the company’s numbers this past quarter could prove as Tesla’s break-even point. Shah further stated that when Tesla’s deliveries increase to about 100,000 vehicles per quarter, the company could be profitable and sustainable.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk and Trump are closer than ever, and Tesla could be the big winner

Elon Musk sat beside Trump as AI leaders signed a voluntary White House safety accord.

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1 day ago

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September 29, 2026

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Elon Musk had the seat right next to President Donald Trump on Tuesday as the White House hosted the leaders of America’s biggest artificial intelligence companies for a lunch that ended with a voluntary industry accord on AI safety.

A seating chart Trump posted on Truth Social placed Musk at the president’s left in the East Room, with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on his right, according to an Associated Press reporter. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos also attended, along with Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson.

After the lunch, Trump told reporters outside the West Wing that the executives had signed “The White House Accord on Superintelligence: A Joint Commitment on Frontier SI Responsibilities.” Johnson described it as a voluntary statement of principles built on “robust internal controls and layers of internal and external review,” while Zuckerberg said company boards would independently review reports from outside auditors. Trump called the document “morally binding,” said he would name a new AI czar within days, and signed an executive order formally renaming artificial intelligence “super intelligence,” CNBC reported.

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Musk was not in the room for Tesla alone. Since SpaceX absorbed xAI, he runs the company behind Grok and one of the largest AI training operations anywhere. On September 25, he said another 220,000 Nvidia GB300 chips would come online at Colossus 2 within a week, with more expected in November and December.

SpaceX confirms third massive compute deal at Colossus data center

 

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Musk also used the trip to restate his energy ambitions. “SpaceX is aiming together with Tesla to do 200 gigawatts of solar production per year,” he said at an event in Washington. It is the same combined target he laid out that feeds directly into Terafab, the Tesla and SpaceX chip venture that will need enormous amounts of power.

The showing between Musk and Trump has come a long way, since the two had the very public split in mid 2025 after Musk opposed the “Big Beautiful Bill” and left DOGE. They reconciled at Charlie Kirk’s memorial that September, and Trump later called their relationship “good”. Since then, Musk has joined Trump’s China delegation in May and attended last week’s White House state dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For Tesla, that access to government official could pay dividends. As Teslarati noted in January, federal autonomy rules, NHTSA oversight and a single national standard for driverless vehicles all run through an administration Musk can more easily reach directly as Tesla works to scale Robotaxi and Cybercab beyond Texas.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

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2 days ago

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September 29, 2026

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Credit: @thaichiminh1907/X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) showrooms have been picked clean ahead of the end of the third quarter of the year, as demand looks to be strong and delivery estimates for new vehicles are pushed into late 2026 and early 2027.

Tesla appears to have sold out of many of its Model 3 and Model Y trim levels in the United States, as only the Model Y RWD and Model Y All-Wheel-Drive are available for delivery before the end of the year.

Additionally, many showrooms are either completely empty or void of all but just one demo unit within the buildings themselves in an effort to bolster what could be one of Tesla’s best quarters in vehicle deliveries in recent memory.

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Additionally, when I spoke to the guys at Tesla Mechanicsburg two weeks ago, when I returned the Model Y L, their third hauler of the week had just arrived, and every vehicle on it, along with every vehicle in their delivery lot, was accounted for and had a name attached to it for delivery.

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Tesla saw a 25 percent increase in deliveries in Q2 compared to the same quarter the year before. The vast majority of the 480,126 units it delivered, 467,762 vehicles to be exact, were the Model 3 and Model Y.

In Q3 2025, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, once again a figure that was dominated by the company’s two mass-market vehicles. Analysts have unusually wide predictions for this quarter, likely because so many firms missed the Q2 delivery figure by such a substantial margin; Wall Street predicted 408,000 cars, while Tesla delivered 480,000.

Goldman Sachs has Tesla slotted for 435,000 deliveries in Q3, while JPMorgan said it anticipates 482,000. The median guess is about 449,000 deliveries for Q3.

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Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX turned a heralding moment for Starship into its greatest

Starship reached orbit despite losing an engine, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Flight 14.

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3 days ago

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September 28, 2026

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SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on Monday, and for a few nail-biting minutes it looked like it wouldn’t. During ascent on Flight 14, one of Ship 41’s six Raptor engines shut down early, and SpaceX’s livestream host Dan Huot told viewers the team had decided not to commit to orbit. Minutes later, after what Huot described as a lot of conversation in the control room, the final poll came back in favor, and a roughly 19 second burn of a single Raptor pushed the ship into orbit about 170 miles up.

The reversal matters because SpaceX had written the exit ramp into the mission plan. The company said it would only fire the orbital insertion burn if flight controllers confirmed enough backup hardware remained for the deorbit burn, a condition Teslarati laid out ahead of the flight. Losing an engine was exactly the scenario that rule was built for.

Pressing forward fits Elon Musk’s history. Falcon 1 failed three straight times before its fourth launch reached orbit in 2008, with SpaceX nearly out of money, and Starship was developed by flying prototypes until they broke. What changed this year SpaceX going public, and with $SPCX sliding below its IPO price in July when Flight 13 slipped, the short interest climbed significantly, as Teslarati reported at the time. A Starship potentially lost today with revenue generating next-gen Starlink satellites aboard would have landed directly on shareholders.

That pressure showed up after orbit. SpaceX cut a flight planned to last nearly 10 hours to about three, moving splashdown from west of Chile to the North Pacific near Hawaii. SpaceX gave no reason, though Musk said this month the company was being extremely cautious about debris risk. The single Raptor for deorbit worked, and Ship 41 completed its flip and landing burn before breaking apart in the water, an outcome SpaceX expected. Musk has structured SpaceX’s governance to shield long term bets from market pressure.

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The payload is the bigger business story. Musk posted that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and are “operating nominally.” Each V3 is rated for about 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink, so this single launch adds roughly 26 Tbps, about 10 times what a Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini satellites adds. The V3 is too large for Falcon 9, making Starship the only vehicle that can build out the planned 100,000 satellite constellation, at up to 60 per flight once it reaches routine service. Unlike the 20 V3 units on Flight 13, which reentered on a suborbital path, these will raise their orbits and could begin serving customers within weeks and bring in hundreds of millions of additional dollars in projected Starlink revenue.

SpaceX has already begun winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship. Reported targets put Flight 15 as early as October 19, leaving about three weeks to diagnose Monday’s engine shutdown before the next orbital attempt.

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