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Could the Tesla Model Y be the best selling vehicle of 2023?

Credit: Tesla Inc./LinkedIn

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The Tesla Model Y could be the best-selling vehicle of 2023, according to an analysis from Recurrent Auto.

Recurrent Auto, an automotive market analysis and retail software company, has released a complete set of predictions for the automotive industry in 2023. Most notably, Recurrent CEO Scott Case predicts that the Tesla Model Y will be the best-selling vehicle of next year.

Recurrent isn’t completely unfounded in believing the Tesla Model Y could achieve amazing results in the coming year. The Model Y has achieved amazing sales stats around the world already in 2022, most notably becoming the second most popular EV sold in China in November. If the vehicle can maintain this success going into the new year, it could be a defining moment for the American automaker.

Sadly it isn’t all good news for Tesla. While Mr. Case predicts that Tesla’s production numbers will continue to grow along with its sales volume, Recurrent also predicts that Tesla’s market share will also dip below 40% for the first time since 2017. According to Mr. Case, this market share will likely be lost to the growing number of competitors in the market.

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Ford is another anticipated winner in the EV market next year. The Recurrent CEO believes that, now that the Blue Oval has witnessed the incredible demand for the electric vehicles they produce, it will continue to ramp production at an ever-increasing pace and will finally be able to meet the demand for its hot new F-150 Lightning. Further, Recurrent estimates that the F-150 Lightning will surpass the Ford Mustang Mach-E in sales next year.

More generally, Recurrent anticipates that many manufacturers will benefit from rapid growth in demand for fleet orders in the coming year. While some buyers, Amazon and Hertz in particular, have already begun to place enormous orders for EVs to replace their ICE vehicle fleets, more and more companies will join them in the coming year.

Along with the rapid growth of new electric vehicle sales, the Recurrent CEO anticipates growth in the used vehicle market. Specifically, he sees two things happening to used electric vehicles; demand for them will grow, and the need for battery health monitoring websites will increase. Sadly, Recurrent doesn’t anticipate that used EV prices will decrease significantly.

Overall, these combined factors will push the EV adoption rate ever higher in the United States, though Mr. Case was careful not to note a specific number.

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But with the market becoming ever more competitive in the new year, how will automakers differentiate their products? The CEO notes two focal points: charging speed and poor weather performance. As the two weak points of electric vehicles currently, these are the two areas that the CEO sees will be the competitive ground where brands compete. Especially, as he notes, many automakers have begun to hit a ceiling regarding battery technology and the range they can provide.

2023 will likely be an exciting year for the electric vehicles space. Along with exciting new technology, it could quickly bring countless new customers and a new culture of acceptance of the technology here in America. Here’s to hoping that progress is as strong as Mr. Case believes it will be.

What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!

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Will is an auto enthusiast, a gear head, and an EV enthusiast above all. From racing, to industry data, to the most advanced EV tech on earth, he now covers it at Teslarati.

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SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

SpaceX has given Elon Musk the goal to put one million people on Mars.

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

SpaceX’s board approved a compensation plan for Elon Musk that ties his pay directly to colonizing Mars and building data centers in outer space. The details surfaced this week after Reuters reviewed SpaceX’s confidential registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, making it one of the first concrete looks inside the company’s financials ahead of a public offering.

The pay package will reportedly award Musk 200 million super-voting restricted shares if the company hits a market valuation milestone, with the most ambitious targets going further. To unlock the full award, SpaceX would need to reach a $7.5 trillion valuation and help establish a permanent human settlement on Mars with at least one million residents. Additional incentives are tied to developing space-based computing infrastructure capable of delivering at least 100 terawatts of processing power.

SpaceX wins its first MARS contract but it comes with a catch

Long before SpaceX filed anything with the SEC, Elon Musk had already spent years framing Mars colonization as an insurance policy against human extinction. The philosophy traces back to at least 2001, when Musk first began researching Mars missions independently, before SpaceX even existed. By 2002 he had founded the company with Mars as the stated long-term goal.

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In a 2017 presentation at the International Astronautical Congress, Musk outlined the specific vision that still underpins SpaceX’s architecture today. He described a self-sustaining city on Mars requiring roughly one million people to become viable, the same number now written into his compensation package.

SpaceX’s Starship, still in active development, was designed from the ground up to support the eventual colonization of Mars. Musk has stated publicly that getting the cost per ton to Mars below $100,000 is necessary to make mass migration economically feasible. Everything from Starship’s payload capacity to its full reusability targets flows from that single constraint. One can say that Musk’s latest compensation package has put a formal valuation on Mars for the first time.

SpaceX is targeting an IPO around June 28, Musk’s birthday, at a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Between the Mars rover contract, the Golden Dome software group, Space Force satellite launches, and now a pay structure built around interplanetary colonization, SpaceX has become the single most consequential contractor in American space and defense. The IPO will put a public price tag on all of it for the first time.

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Tesla’s biggest rivals fights charging wait times with a modern approach

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Tesla V4 Supercharger installation ramping in Europe

Earlier this week, we wrote a story on how Tesla is launching a new Supercharging Queue system to mitigate problems between drivers when there is a wait to charge.

Rather than potentially having people end up in a physical conflict, Tesla’s approach is to determine who is next to charge based on geographic data.

Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all

But some companies, notably Tesla’s biggest rival in China, BYD, are taking a different approach, focusing on charging speeds rather than how they will manage delays.

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BYD’s approach, especially with its tests of ultra-fast “Flash Charging” technology, is to eliminate the length of a charging session. At the heart of this strategy is BYD’s second-generation Blade Battery paired with 1,500-kW Flash Chargers.

Unveiled earlier this year, the system charges compatible vehicles from 10 percent to 70 percent state of charge in just five minutes and from 10 percent to 97 percent in nine minutes.

Real-world demonstrations on models like the Yangwang U7 and Denza Z9 GT have shown the tech delivering roughly 250 miles (400 kilometers) of range in just five minutes. This would essentially match or beat the time it takes to fill a gas tank.

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Sometimes, gas pumps get congested, and there are lines. You rarely see conflicts at pumps because filling up a tank rarely takes more than five minutes.

Tesla’s fastest Supercharger build currently is the v4, which can deliver up to 325 kW for Cybertruck and 250 kW for other models, but there are “true” sites that are capable of up to 500 kW. This enables speeds of up to 1,000 miles per hour, or 1,400 miles for 350 kW-capable vehicles.

The breakthrough stems from BYD’s vertically integrated ecosystem: a new 1,000-volt architecture, 10C charging rates, and proprietary silicon-carbide chips that minimize internal resistance while protecting battery health.

The company plans to install 20,000 Flash Charging stations across China by the end of 2026, with thousands already operational and global expansion eyed for Europe and beyond later this year.

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Early rollout targets popular models, including upgrades to high-volume sellers like the Seal and Sealion series, bringing five-minute charging to mainstream prices around 100,000 yuan (about $14,000).

This approach contrasts sharply with Tesla’s software solution. Tesla’s Virtual Queue uses geofencing and the app to assign turns at crowded sites, addressing driver disputes and idle time. It’s a clever fix for today’s network realities.

Yet, BYD’s philosophy is simpler: make charging so fast that waits barely exist. A five-minute stop becomes as convenient as a gas-station visit, reducing station dwell time, easing grid strain, and lowering range anxiety for long trips.

For consumers, the difference is potentially tangible. They’ll spend more time driving and less time parked. It is just another way Tesla and BYD are pushing one another to improve the overall experience of EV ownership.

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Tesla wins big as NHTSA drops three-year, 120k unit probe against Model Y

In all, 120,089 Model Ys were impacted, but in two cases, drivers reported the complete detachment of the steering wheel from the steering column while the vehicle was in motion. NHTSA’s initial review revealed that the vehicles had been delivered without the critical retaining bolt that secures the steering wheel to the splined steering column.

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Credit: Tesla Asia | X

A probe into over 120,000 2023 Tesla Model Y units has been closed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The probe ends without the agency requiring any action from Tesla.

The probe, designated PE23-003, opened in March 2023 and stemmed from just two consumer complaints involving low-mileage Model Y SUVs.

In all, 120,089 Model Ys were impacted, but in two cases, drivers reported the complete detachment of the steering wheel from the steering column while the vehicle was in motion. NHTSA’s initial review revealed that the vehicles had been delivered without the critical retaining bolt that secures the steering wheel to the splined steering column.

Factory records showed each car had undergone an “end-of-line” repair at Tesla’s facility, during which the steering wheel was removed and reinstalled. The bolt was apparently omitted after the repair, leaving only a friction fit between the wheel and column to hold it in place temporarily.

According to NHTSA documents, this friction fit maintained the connection during initial low-mileage driving until forces during normal operation caused the wheel to detach. Both vehicles that were impacted were repaired under warranty with no injuries reported, and no additional incidents surfaced during the agency’s three-year review.

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Tesla Model Y steering wheel detachments prompt NHTSA probe

After analyzing manufacturing processes, complaint data, and field reports, NHTSA concluded the issue was isolated to those two post-repair vehicles rather than indicative of a systemic defect in Tesla’s production or quality control.

The closure means the agency has determined no recall or further enforcement is warranted for this specific missing-bolt condition.

This outcome marks the second NHTSA investigation into Tesla closed without action this month, as a recent probe into the company’s “Actually Smart Summon” feature was also resolved in April.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving feature probe closed by NHTSA

The two resolutions provide some relief for Tesla amid the continuous and somewhat unfair regulatory scrutiny of its vehicles, including open inquiries into driver assistance systems.

Importantly, the closed probe does not involve or affect Tesla’s separate May 2023 voluntary recall of certain 2022-2023 Model Y vehicles. That recall addressed a different issue—steering-wheel fasteners that were installed but not torqued to specification—prompted by a service technician’s observation of a loose wheel during unrelated repairs.

Tesla identified a small number of related warranty claims and proactively addressed the matter without NHTSA mandate.

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The Model Y remains one of the world’s best-selling vehicles, and Tesla continues to refine its lineup, including the recent “Juniper” refresh. While federal oversight of the electric vehicle pioneer remains intense, this decision underscores that isolated manufacturing anomalies do not always translate into broader safety defects requiring recalls.

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