The Tesla Model Y could be the best-selling vehicle of 2023, according to an analysis from Recurrent Auto.
Recurrent Auto, an automotive market analysis and retail software company, has released a complete set of predictions for the automotive industry in 2023. Most notably, Recurrent CEO Scott Case predicts that the Tesla Model Y will be the best-selling vehicle of next year.
Recurrent isn’t completely unfounded in believing the Tesla Model Y could achieve amazing results in the coming year. The Model Y has achieved amazing sales stats around the world already in 2022, most notably becoming the second most popular EV sold in China in November. If the vehicle can maintain this success going into the new year, it could be a defining moment for the American automaker.
Sadly it isn’t all good news for Tesla. While Mr. Case predicts that Tesla’s production numbers will continue to grow along with its sales volume, Recurrent also predicts that Tesla’s market share will also dip below 40% for the first time since 2017. According to Mr. Case, this market share will likely be lost to the growing number of competitors in the market.
Ford is another anticipated winner in the EV market next year. The Recurrent CEO believes that, now that the Blue Oval has witnessed the incredible demand for the electric vehicles they produce, it will continue to ramp production at an ever-increasing pace and will finally be able to meet the demand for its hot new F-150 Lightning. Further, Recurrent estimates that the F-150 Lightning will surpass the Ford Mustang Mach-E in sales next year.
More generally, Recurrent anticipates that many manufacturers will benefit from rapid growth in demand for fleet orders in the coming year. While some buyers, Amazon and Hertz in particular, have already begun to place enormous orders for EVs to replace their ICE vehicle fleets, more and more companies will join them in the coming year.
Along with the rapid growth of new electric vehicle sales, the Recurrent CEO anticipates growth in the used vehicle market. Specifically, he sees two things happening to used electric vehicles; demand for them will grow, and the need for battery health monitoring websites will increase. Sadly, Recurrent doesn’t anticipate that used EV prices will decrease significantly.
Overall, these combined factors will push the EV adoption rate ever higher in the United States, though Mr. Case was careful not to note a specific number.
But with the market becoming ever more competitive in the new year, how will automakers differentiate their products? The CEO notes two focal points: charging speed and poor weather performance. As the two weak points of electric vehicles currently, these are the two areas that the CEO sees will be the competitive ground where brands compete. Especially, as he notes, many automakers have begun to hit a ceiling regarding battery technology and the range they can provide.
2023 will likely be an exciting year for the electric vehicles space. Along with exciting new technology, it could quickly bring countless new customers and a new culture of acceptance of the technology here in America. Here’s to hoping that progress is as strong as Mr. Case believes it will be.
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News
Tesla Giga Berlin makes a statement of solidarity amid IG Metall conflict
The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.
Tesla Giga Berlin is sending a strong message of solidarity amid its ongoing legal dispute with German union IG Metall.
In a post on social media platform X, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig shared an image of the facility’s lobby covered with a large banner that reads: “Progress. Innovation. Success.” He added that the slogan reflects what the facility has stood for since Day One.
“Our lobby at Giga Berlin covered in a huge banner these days. Progress. Innovation. Success – this is what we stand for since we started production in 2022 and how we will go into our future!” Thierig wrote in his post on X.
The display comes as tensions between Tesla and IG Metall continue to escalate.
The dispute began after Tesla accused a union representative of secretly recording a works council meeting at Giga Berlin. Tesla stated that it filed a criminal complaint after the alleged incident. Police later confirmed they had seized a computer belonging to an IG Metall member as part of their investigation.
“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote on X at the time.
IG Metall denied the accusation and characterized Tesla’s move as an election tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections. The union subsequently filed a defamation complaint against Thierig. Authorities later confirmed that an investigation had been opened in connection with the matter.
Giga Berlin began production in 2022 and has since become one of Tesla’s key European manufacturing hubs, producing the Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle. The facility has expanded capacity over the past years despite environmental protests, labor disputes, and regulatory scrutiny.
Energy
Tesla Megapack Megafactory in Texas advances with major property sale
Stream Realty Partners announced the sale of Buildings 9 and 10 at the Empire West industrial park, which total 1,655,523 square feet.
Tesla’s planned Megapack factory in Brookshire, Texas has taken a significant step forward, as two massive industrial buildings fully leased to the company were sold to an institutional investor.
In a press release, Stream Realty Partners announced the sale of Buildings 9 and 10 at the Empire West industrial park, which total 1,655,523 square feet. The properties are 100% leased to Tesla under a long-term agreement and were acquired by BGO on behalf of an institutional investor.
The two facilities, located at 100 Empire Boulevard in Brookshire, Texas, will serve as Tesla’s new Megafactory dedicated to manufacturing Megapack battery systems.
According to local filings previously reported, Tesla plans to invest nearly $200 million into the site. The investment includes approximately $44 million in facility upgrades such as electrical, utility, and HVAC improvements, along with roughly $150 million in manufacturing equipment.
Building 9, spanning roughly 1 million square feet, will function as the primary manufacturing floor where Megapacks are assembled. Building 10, covering approximately 600,000 square feet, will be dedicated to warehousing and logistics operations, supporting storage and distribution of completed battery systems.
Waller County Commissioners have approved a 10-year tax abatement agreement with Tesla, offering up to a 60% property-tax reduction if the company meets hiring and investment targets. Tesla has committed to employing at least 375 people by the end of 2026, increasing to 1,500 by the end of 2028, as noted in an Austin County News Online report.
The Brookshire Megafactory will complement Tesla’s Lathrop Megafactory in California and expand U.S. production capacity for the utility-scale energy storage unit. Megapacks are designed to support grid stabilization and renewable-energy integration, a segment that has become one of Tesla’s fastest-growing businesses.
News
Tesla Sweden strikers see tax issues over IF Metall union error
To address the issue, IF Metall is encouraging Tesla strikers to return the refunded tax amounts to the union.
A tax correction is set to return two years of income tax payments to Tesla strikers in Sweden, after authorities determined that conflict compensation during a labor dispute should not have been taxed.
The issue is caused by a decision by IF Metall to treat strike compensation for Tesla workers as taxable income during the ongoing labor dispute with Tesla Sweden. That approach has now been reversed following guidance from the Swedish Tax Agency.
Strike compensation is typically tax-free under Sweden’s Income Tax Act, as noted in a report from Dagens Arbete (DA). However, two years ago, IF Metall’s board decided to classify payments to Tesla strikers as taxable.
“We did it to secure SGI, unemployment insurance and public pension. Those were the risks we saw when the strike had already dragged on,” Kent Bursjöö, financial manager at IF Metall, stated.
According to Bursjöö, the union wanted to ensure that members continued to register earned income with the tax agency, protecting benefits tied to income history. At the end of January, however, the Swedish Tax Agency informed the union that compensation during a labor dispute must be tax-free.
“Of course, we knew that it could be tax-free. But we clearly didn’t know that it couldn’t be taxable,” Bursjöö said.
Following discussions with auditors and tax authorities, IF Metall began correcting the payments. As a result, two years of paid income tax will now be credited back to the affected strikers’ tax accounts. The union will also recover previously paid employer contributions.
However, the correction creates secondary effects. Since the payments will now be treated as tax-free, pension contributions tied to those earnings will be withdrawn, potentially affecting state pension accrual and income-based benefits such as parental or sickness benefits.
To address this, IF Metall is encouraging members to return the refunded tax amounts to the union. In exchange, the union plans to pay 18.5% into occupational pensions on their behalf. “Otherwise, it will be a form of overcompensation when they get the tax paid back,” Bursjöö said.
That being said, the IF Metall officer acknowledged that the union’s legal ability to reclaim the funds from its improperly paid Tesla Sweden strikers is limited. “The legal possibilities are probably limited, from what we can see. But we assume that most people see the value of securing their pension,” Bursjöö said.