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The Model Y represents a wiser Tesla and it should wake up the auto industry

[Credit: Miguel Massé/Twitter]

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It is now just a matter of time before Tesla unveils the next vehicle in its product roadmap — the Model Y. Aimed at the auto industry’s most lucrative segment today, the all-electric SUV and its potential success could definitively establish Tesla’s reputation as a successful carmaker. With this in mind, the Model Y’s 2019 release could be seen as a strategic move for Tesla, since the company is now at a point where it has matured enough to produce a vehicle of such magnitude and caliber as the all-electric SUV. 

A competitive segment

The compact SUV segment in the United States is an incredibly competitive market. In 2018 alone, auto sales tracking website CarSalesBase noted that the Toyota Rav4 — the reigning king of compact SUVs — sold 427,168 units in the United States. In second place was the Nissan Rogue with 412,110 vehicles sold, and in third place was the Honda CR-V, which sold 379,013 units during 2019. Each of these vehicles sold so well, their individual sales exceeded Tesla’s record-breaking 2018 sales of 245,240 electric cars, which included 145,846 Model 3.

That said, Tesla’s 2018 sales for the Model 3 were no joke. With more than 145,000 units sold over the year, the electric sedan ended 2018 as the US’ best-selling luxury vehicle, far outselling its closest competitor — the Lexus RX, which also happens to be an SUV. It should be noted that the Model 3 accomplished this feat despite the United States generally preferring SUVs and pickup trucks over passenger cars. With the Model Y, Tesla would be removing this handicap, as the company would be competing in the SUV segment with an all-electric SUV that is bred to dominate.

A graphic depicting the US’ top selling compact SUVs in 2018. (Credit: CarSalesBase.com)

From the Model 3 to the Model Y

The success of the Model 3 and the tribulations Tesla passed through during the vehicle’s ramp all contribute to help in the production of the Model Y. When Tesla started producing the Model 3, it was a carmaker whose experience was limited to the production of two relatively low-volume premium vehicles, and CEO Elon Musk was still prone to hyper-ambitious goals that border on the unrealistic. As Tesla went through the Model 3’s production challenges, and as the company hit its stride with the vehicle’s manufacturing, the electric car maker matured. This maturity became evident in Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, when Elon Musk showed a notable amount of restraint and humility. Musk’s timelines since then have remained ambitious — though a lot more realistic — as shown in the company’s timetable for Gigafactory 3.

With a more mature Tesla and a more experienced Elon Musk leading the Model Y charge, the electric car maker could escape a considerable amount of the challenges it faced with the Model 3. Musk had expressed his optimism with Model Y production during the recently held fourth-quarter earnings call, when he noted that the vehicle would require much lower CAPEX than the electric sedan. Discussing the upcoming vehicle’s production further, Musk stated that the Model Y would likely see a seamless buildout, considering that it would likely be built in Gigafactory 1. This would be a notable advantage for the Model Y, considering that its battery packs would be made in the same site.

“Three-quarters of the Model Y is common with the Model 3, so it’s a much lower CAPEX per vehicle than Model 3, and the rest is also quite low. Model Y is, I think, 76% was when it got in common with the Model 3. And we’re most likely going to put Model Y production right next to — in fact, it’s part of our main Gigafactory in Nevada. So, it will just be right there. Batteries and powertrains will come out and go straight into the vehicle. So that also reduces our risk of execution and reduces the cost of having to transfer parts from California to Nevada. It’s not a for sure thing, but it’s quite likely, and it’s our default plan. I would expect Model Y will probably be — the thematic Model Y will be maybe 50% higher than Model 3, could be even double,” Musk said.

The Tesla Model Y as imagined by concept artists. (Credit: Reese Wilson, AutoExpress, Peisert Design and Miguel Masse)

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An impending disruption

The Model Y’s dominance will not be focused solely on the United States, either, considering that Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 in China is expected to manufacture the affordable versions of the all-electric SUV, which would be distributed to the Chinese market. Just like the United States, China is also a market that has a soft spot for SUVs. Such is the reason why the Tesla Model X — rather expensive vehicle that Musk describes as the “Fabergé egg of cars,” — is popular in China. With a lower-cost car like the Model Y in the market, Tesla’s potential in the Asian economic superpower would likely see a boost as well.

It could be said that much of Tesla’s challenges over the years were the result of its own hubris, as evidenced by the Model X’s overloaded tech and the Model 3 ramp’s over-reliance on automation. That said, there’s a good chance that Tesla would not make these same mistakes with the Model Y. With this in mind, it would be wise for veterans in the auto industry to take the upcoming vehicle seriously, and maybe come up with compelling electric cars of their own — not like seemingly converted vehicles like the Mercedes-Benz EQC either, but more like the Porsche Taycan, which was designed from the ground up as EV.  

Just as the Model S and Model X caused a disruption on the higher end of the auto market, so would the Model 3 and Model Y. Provided that Tesla manages to produce both vehicles at scale, and provided that the company can release lower-cost variants that can attract a broader audience, the Model Y and its sedan sibling could ultimately become the electric cars that cement the company’s place in the hyper-competitive auto industry.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Why automakers keep turning down Elon Musk’s Tesla Full Self-Driving offer

Elon Musk confirms no automaker has ever accepted Tesla’s offer to license Full Self-Driving software.

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Elon Musk gave a brief answer on X Monday that confirmed that Tesla’s standing offer to license Full Self-Driving to other automakers still has zero takers. Sawyer Merritt wrote that “Tesla has for years openly invited other automakers to license FSD. None of them have accepted,” responding to a prediction from Boom Supersonic founder Blake Scholl that Tesla would eventually open FSD the way it opened its Supercharger network to rival brands. Musk’s reply to Merritt was one word: “Exactly.”

It is not the first time Musk has made this point. He said something similar in November, when he called legacy automakers reluctance to adopt FSD “crazy,” and Tesla has floated the offer publicly since at least 2021. Scholl’s prediction touches on something real. Once NACS became the de facto charging standard, adoption from Ford, GM, Rivian and others followed within about a year. FSD licensing was supposed to work the same way once Tesla built enough of a lead that switching made sense for everyone.

The case for licensing now is stronger than it was two years ago. Waymo and Zoox are logging hundreds of thousands of unsupervised autonomous miles, along with Tesla’s own Robotaxi fleet. Every automaker still selling driver assist systems that lag FSD has given the robotaxi conversation to Tesla, Waymo and Zoox by default. Licensing FSD would let a GM or a Ford compete on the same field without spending a decade and billions of dollars building a stack from scratch, the same argument Tesla made when it opened the Supercharger network to bring more EVs onto its chargers.

But FSD is not a connector standard. As one reply to Musk’s post pointed out, licensing FSD is not a software license the way NACS was a plug spec. It requires adopting Tesla’s eight camera layout and its onboard compute architecture, meaning a licensee’s cars would effectively become Tesla hardware wearing someone else’s badge. That is the visible obstacle. The less visible one is data. A licensed FSD stack would report back the same telemetry Tesla collects from its own fleet, giving Tesla a continuous read on how a competitor’s cars are actually driven, where they struggle, and how often drivers intervene. For an automaker trying to build its own autonomy program, or simply trying to keep its build quality and safety record private, handing Tesla that visibility could be a bigger cost than the hardware bill. It is the reason the Supercharger comparison only goes so far. Opening a charging plug cost Tesla very little. Opening FSD would cost a rival something it cannot get back.

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Tesla eyes supply partners for Optimus mass production

Tesla certified three Chinese suppliers for Optimus mass production, signaling its robot timeline is accelerating.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla’s robotics team traveled to Ningbo, in China’s Zhejiang province, on September 16 and spent the following day auditing component suppliers for Optimus, according to a Bloomberg report cited by RobotAIGeek. The visit moved three manufacturers from provisional status to certified mass production partners: Tuopu Group, which handles actuators and chassis components, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, a sensor supplier, and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which builds thermal management systems. All three already supply parts to Tesla’s electric vehicles, and the audit reportedly came with fresh orders that supply chain reports put at an initial batch of roughly 5,000 units.

Tuopu, Joyson, and Sanhua built their manufacturing base serving the automotive industry, where tolerances and volume requirements are already close to what a mass produced humanoid robot demands. Sanhua in particular has history here. Teslarati reported last October that the company had received a roughly $685 million order for linear actuators tied to Optimus, a volume industry watchers estimated could cover around 180,000 robots once production ramped.

Supply chain reports tied to this week’s audit put Tesla’s near term production goal at about 1,000 Optimus units a week by late September, rising to 2,000 to 2,500 units a week by the end of the year. That pace would put real weight behind the timeline Tesla has been building toward since May, when it wound down Model S and Model X production at Fremont to convert that floor space into a dedicated Optimus line targeting one million units annually. JPMorgan analysts who toured the factory in August confirmed the conversion took roughly four months, a pace Musk has called unprecedented for a facility that size.

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

Fremont is only the first phase. A second, larger Optimus plant is rising at Gigafactory Texas, where drone footage shared by Joe Tegtmeyer last week showed the structural steel nearing completion on the north end of the building. Tesla has said that facility is meant to eventually support production of up to 10 million units a year, though volume output there is not expected before 2027.

Commercial sales of Optimus are still targeted for the second half of 2027, but production is expected to start well before then. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta has said Tesla’s “Optimus Academy” program, which uses early units to collect real world training data inside Tesla’s own facilities, is expected to be running later this year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma described the Ningbo audits as “a positive commercialization signal for China’s humanoid supply chain,” noting that sentiment could improve further if the visit leads to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index rose about 1.4% on the news, though it remains down roughly 30% for the year.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

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Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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