Investor's Corner
Tesla Motors Secret Weapon: Thoughts and Lobbying Efforts
Elon Musk speaking to fans at the North American International Auto Show in Jan. of 2015. (Source: KmanAuto)
Release the hounds and engage the thrusters, Tesla’s 2015 dealer association battles are well underway this year in many states, such as New Jersey, Connecticut and Texas. According to the the Texas Tribune, Tesla Motors has spent between “$625,000 and 1.18 million on lobbyists in the state’s most recent legislative session.” In past legislative sessions, dating back to to 2013, Tesla has spent a much more conservative amount in the range of $170,000 to $370,000.
So how does an investor or an Tesla enthusiast view this current strategy by Tesla Motors? Maybe a more aggressive lobbying strategy should have been done earlier? Or is it good timing or has the Silicon Valley automaker decided it’s the right time to strike?
In 2014, Tesla Motors was an online monster, newsmaker, and discussion board darling. The news came fast and furious, with more superchargers, the new Model P85D, the gigafactory launch and a new machine component facility in Lathrop, CA. With this growth, Musk may have felt it was the right time for better PR and a fully-realized lobbying strategy with state legislators.
The waiting game’s timing seems to have allowed legislators and the dealers to over reach in 2015. A recent dealer association’s argument posits that Tesla might not be around (bankrupt) for the long-term and where will consumers go for service (they may have a point if all legislative bodies adopt anti-capitalism stances–Luddites).
Why lobby now? Maybe Musk saw the writing on the wall in late 2014 with Tesla’s lack of demand in China and knew increased demand for the Model S was probably needed for a big 2015 in the U.S.
>> Related News: Tesla Motors Reassigns Jerome Guillen to Customer Satisfaction position, restructures global sales departments.
In the most recent earnings call, Musk mentioned a “secret weapon against dealerships” as it related to global car demand and Tesla deliveries for 2015. One thing we know, this secret weapon isn’t a legal loophole, otherwise they would have used it by now, right?
Elon Musk unveils the dual-motor P85D in a much anticipated event back in Q4 of 2014.
With this in mind, I visited some Tesla Motors discussion boards to see what’s being suggested as this “secret weapon” against dealers? Some have suggested an updated battery technology, but Musk has pointed to the gigafactory’s supply chain for near-term innovation and dampened, in general, battery breakthrough ideas.
Others push the idea of more Tesla taxis or rental cars in play to get more “butts in seats.” However, I don’t see that as direct response to dealerships.
An interesting suggestion from “subhuman” (yep, that’s correct username) on the TMC discussion board mentioned “a lifetime warranty or extremely long warranty period” that could highlight the paradigm shift of electric car technology to the car-buying public. On the TMC board, ‘subhuman’ suggests, “Elon has always said that he wants to run the service center at a zero profit, what better then buying a car that you will never have to pay to have serviced.”
With a prolonged dealership lobbying strategy this year and this type of extended service proposal, car buyers will understand more of the electric car proposition. Even libertarians are seeing the raging hypocrisy (listen to Energy Gang, “Why More Tea Partyers Are Rallying Behind Solar”) over the issue of consumer liberties and the ability to buy a car or energy platform that suits their needs.
So does Tesla’s business model and dealer fight have legs beyond just car enthusiast sites, financial blogs and discussion boards? We’ll see.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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