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Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai’s 2021 Model 3 and Model Y production estimates are likely conservative
On its Q4 FY 2020 Update Letter, Tesla listed Gigafactory Shanghai’s annual vehicle production capacity at 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y, up from 250,000 in Q3 2020. This number is undoubtedly impressive, but if one were to look at recent reports and developments at the Shanghai-based site, it would seem that Tesla’s numbers for the facility in 2021 are fairly conservative.
Data from the China Passenger Vehicle Association shows that 137,459 China-made Model 3 were sold locally last year, allowing it to be one of the country’s most popular electric cars. These numbers helped Tesla reach its goal of delivering half a million vehicles in 2020, an ambitious target considering the effects of the pandemic on the global auto segment.
It should be noted that 2020 only marked the first year of Model 3 production in Gigafactory Shanghai. Within the year, which included government-mandated shutdowns due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, Tesla was able to ramp the production of the Model 3, while building out and starting the operations in the Model Y plant in the factory’s Phase 2 area. By November, industry insiders told local news agency 36 Krypton that Tesla China would be looking to build 550,000 cars in 2021, comprised of 300,000 Model 3 and 250,000 Model Y.
These figures, at least based on the Q4 FY 2020 report, are notably higher than Tesla’s own estimates. However, it should be noted that Tesla’s Model Y plant in Gigafactory Shanghai will likely ramp faster than its Model 3 counterpart, partly due to the Model Y employing innovations such as the Giga Press, which makes vehicle production simpler and more cost-effective. Fewer interruptions due to the pandemic are also likely this year, considering China’s stringent anti-COVID policies.
When reports of Giga Shanghai’s reported 550,000-vehicle production goal was reported, industry insiders cited by local news reports noted that Tesla China has already issued ordering requirements to core component suppliers. This suggests that since the latter part of 2020, Tesla has already been making preparations for its most notable vehicle production ramp to date in Gigafactory Shanghai. This was highlighted in a study from China Industrial Securities, which stated that Giga Shanghai has reached a production capacity of 8,000 vehicles per week.
During the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Eon Musk noted that Tesla is on track to see a growth rate of about 50% every year. Considering the pieces that are in place in the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai, as well as the expected deployment of Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas later this year, Tesla’s 50% estimate may very well be conservative.
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Elon Musk
Donald Trump turns to Elon Musk and Starlink amid Iran internet blackout
Donald Trump has stated that he plans to speak with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran.
Donald Trump has stated that he plans to speak with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran, as authorities in the country implement an internet blackout amid nationwide anti-government protests.
Trump points to Starlink
Speaking to reporters in Washington, Trump said Musk would be well-suited to help restore connectivity in Iran, citing his experience operating large-scale satellite networks, as noted in a Reuters report. “He’s very good at that kind of thing, he’s got a very good company,” Trump said.
Iran has experienced a near-total internet shutdown for several days, severely limiting the flow of information as protests escalated into broader demonstrations against the country’s rulers.
Starlink has previously been used in Iran during periods of unrest, allowing some users to access the global internet despite government blocks. Neither Musk nor SpaceX immediately commented on Trump’s remarks, but Musk has publicly supported efforts to provide Starlink access to Iranians during earlier periods of unrest.
Renewed Trump–Musk ties
Trump’s comments come amid a thaw in his previously strained relationship with Musk. The two had a public falling-out last year over domestic policy disagreements but have since appeared together publicly, including at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. The renewed ties now intersect with foreign policy, as Starlink has become a strategic tool in regions facing censorship or conflict.
The satellite service has also played a prominent role elsewhere, most notably in Ukraine, highlighting both its potential impact and the political sensitivities surrounding its use. In Iran, Starlink support previously followed coordination between Musk and U.S. officials during protests in 2022.
The current internet blackout in Iran has drawn international attention, with rights groups estimating hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests since demonstrations intensified late last year. Iranian authorities have not released official casualty figures, and outside verification remains limited due to restricted communications.
News
Tesla China’s domestic sales fell 4.8% in 2025, but it’s not doom and gloom
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Tesla posted 625,698 retail vehicle sales in China in 2025, marking a 4.8% year-on-year decline as the EV maker navigated an increasingly competitive EV market and a major production transition for its best-selling vehicle.
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Retail sales slip amid Model Y transition
Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China were down from 657,102 units in 2024, when the company ranked third in the country’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market with a 6.0% share. In 2025, Tesla’s share slipped to 4.9%, placing it fifth overall, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
Part of the decline seemed tied to operational disruptions early in the year. Tesla implemented a changeover to the new Tesla Model Y in the first quarter of 2025, which required temporary production pauses at Giga Shanghai. That downtime reduced vehicle availability early during the year, weighing on the company’s retail volumes in China and in areas supplied by Giga Shanghai’s exports.
China remained one of Tesla’s largest markets, accounting for 38.24% of its global deliveries of 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. However, the company also saw exports from Giga Shanghai fall to 226,034 units, down nearly 13% year-on-year. It remains to be seen how much of this could be attributed to the Model Y changeover and how much could be attributed to other factors.
Strong December 2025 finish
While the full-year picture showed some contraction, Tesla closed 2025 on a high note. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla China delivered a record 93,843 vehicles domestically in China in December, its highest monthly total ever. That figure was up 13.2% from a year earlier and 28.3% higher than November.
The surge was driven in part by Tesla prioritizing domestic deliveries late in the year, allowing buyers to lock in favorable purchase tax policies. In December alone, Tesla captured 7.0% of China’s NEV market and a notable 12.0% share of the country’s battery-electric segment.
On a wholesale basis, Tesla China sold 851,732 vehicles in 2025, down 7.1% year-on-year. From this number, 97,171 were from December 2025 alone. Tesla Model 3 wholesale figures reached 312,738 units, a year-over-year decrease of 13.12%. The Tesla Model Y’s wholesale figures for 2025 were 538,994 units, down 3.18% year-over-year.
News
Tesla Robovan’s likely first real-world use teased by Boring Company President
As per the executive, the vehicle will be used to move large crowds through Las Vegas during major events.
The Boring Company President Steve Davis has shared the most likely first real-world use for Tesla’s Robovan.
As per the executive, the vehicle will be used to move large crowds through Las Vegas during major events.
Tesla Robovan for high-demand events
During a feature with the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Boring Company President Steve Davis stated that the Tesla Robovan will be used in Sin City once the Vegas Loop expands across the Strip and downtown and the fleet grows to about 1,200 Teslas.
At that scale, Robovans would primarily be deployed during predictable surges, such as game days and large shows, when many riders are traveling to the same destination at the same time.
“The second you have four (passengers) and you have to start stopping, the best thing you can do is put your smallest vehicle in, which is a car. But if you know people are going to the stadium because of a game, you’ll know an hour before, two hours before, that a lot of people are going to a game or a Sphere show, if you are smart about it, that’s when you put a high occupancy vehicle in, that’s when you put the Robovan in,” Davis said.
Vegas Loop expansion
Steve Davis’s Robovan comment comes amid The Boring Company’s efforts to expand the Vegas Loop’s airport service. Phase 1 of rides to Harry Reid International Airport began last month, allowing passengers to travel from existing Loop stations such as Resorts World, Encore, Westgate, and the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Phase 2 will add a 2.2-mile dual-direction tunnel from Westgate to Paradise Road. That section is expected to open within months and will allow speeds of up to 60 mph on parts of the route, while expanding the fleet to around 160 vehicles.
Future phases are expected to extend tunnels closer to airport terminals and add multiple stations along University Center Drive. At this point, the system’s fleet is expected to grow close to 300 Teslas. The final phase, an underground airport station, was described by Davis as the system’s “holy grail.” This, however, has no definite timeframe as of yet.
Donald Trump turns to Elon Musk and Starlink amid Iran internet blackout
Tesla China’s domestic sales fell 4.8% in 2025, but it’s not doom and gloom
