News
Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai’s 2021 Model 3 and Model Y production estimates are likely conservative
On its Q4 FY 2020 Update Letter, Tesla listed Gigafactory Shanghai’s annual vehicle production capacity at 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y, up from 250,000 in Q3 2020. This number is undoubtedly impressive, but if one were to look at recent reports and developments at the Shanghai-based site, it would seem that Tesla’s numbers for the facility in 2021 are fairly conservative.
Data from the China Passenger Vehicle Association shows that 137,459 China-made Model 3 were sold locally last year, allowing it to be one of the country’s most popular electric cars. These numbers helped Tesla reach its goal of delivering half a million vehicles in 2020, an ambitious target considering the effects of the pandemic on the global auto segment.
It should be noted that 2020 only marked the first year of Model 3 production in Gigafactory Shanghai. Within the year, which included government-mandated shutdowns due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, Tesla was able to ramp the production of the Model 3, while building out and starting the operations in the Model Y plant in the factory’s Phase 2 area. By November, industry insiders told local news agency 36 Krypton that Tesla China would be looking to build 550,000 cars in 2021, comprised of 300,000 Model 3 and 250,000 Model Y.
These figures, at least based on the Q4 FY 2020 report, are notably higher than Tesla’s own estimates. However, it should be noted that Tesla’s Model Y plant in Gigafactory Shanghai will likely ramp faster than its Model 3 counterpart, partly due to the Model Y employing innovations such as the Giga Press, which makes vehicle production simpler and more cost-effective. Fewer interruptions due to the pandemic are also likely this year, considering China’s stringent anti-COVID policies.
When reports of Giga Shanghai’s reported 550,000-vehicle production goal was reported, industry insiders cited by local news reports noted that Tesla China has already issued ordering requirements to core component suppliers. This suggests that since the latter part of 2020, Tesla has already been making preparations for its most notable vehicle production ramp to date in Gigafactory Shanghai. This was highlighted in a study from China Industrial Securities, which stated that Giga Shanghai has reached a production capacity of 8,000 vehicles per week.
During the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Eon Musk noted that Tesla is on track to see a growth rate of about 50% every year. Considering the pieces that are in place in the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai, as well as the expected deployment of Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas later this year, Tesla’s 50% estimate may very well be conservative.
Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Tesla has secured regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system in Denmark, marking a significant step in the technology’s expansion across Europe.
Announced on June 9, the approval positions Denmark as the fourth European country to greenlight FSD Supervised, following the Netherlands, Lithuania, and Estonia.
Rollout to Danish vehicle owners is expected to begin soon, the company said.
The Danish Road Traffic Authority granted provisional approval after reviewing the original type approval issued by the Dutch vehicle authority (RDW) on April 10, 2026.
FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰
Rollout will begin soon pic.twitter.com/Xpxwcme10k
— Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa (@teslaeurope) June 9, 2026
This national recognition approach allows individual countries to bypass slower EU-wide harmonization processes, accelerating deployment. Lithuania activated the system on May 20, with Estonia following on May 29, demonstrating a rapid domino effect across the region.
FSD Supervised enables advanced driver assistance capabilities, including automatic steering, acceleration, braking, lane changes, and navigation through complex urban and rural environments. The system is designed for supervised use, as its name states, meaning drivers must remain attentive and ready to intervene at all times.
It adapts to diverse conditions, such as rain, night driving, and varied road types common in Denmark, but it is important to note that the tech is not fully autonomous.
Following a launch in Europe just a few months ago, with its first approval coming in the Netherlands, Tesla is just now highlighting the successful start.
Early data from the Netherlands highlights strong safety performance. Between April 10 and June 5, vehicles using FSD Supervised recorded 3.5 times fewer collisions than manual driving overall, with zero crashes reported on highways across more than 16.6 million kilometers driven.
These results underscore the potential of the technology to enhance road safety when properly supervised.
Tesla’s European push builds on its global footprint, now reaching 12 countries with FSD Supervised availability. The software receives continuous over-the-air updates, improving performance based on real-world data from millions of miles.
In Denmark, owners with compatible hardware—particularly newer vehicles equipped with Hardware 4 (HW4)—are anticipated to gain access first, though exact timelines and eligibility details will be confirmed during rollout.
This approval reflects growing regulatory confidence in supervised autonomy across Europe. As more nations recognize the Dutch certification, Tesla continues to demonstrate how its AI-driven approach can navigate real-world driving scenarios effectively. Denmark’s addition strengthens Tesla’s position in the region, paving the way for broader adoption on a continent that his been surprisingly slow to adopt the technology.
With FSD Supervised now approved in four European markets in just two months, the technology is steadily advancing toward wider availability. Tesla aims to refine the system further through ongoing data collection and software iterations, supporting its vision for safer and more efficient transportation.
Tesla has apparently revised the policy it previously had listed for Full Self-Driving transfers on the newest All-Wheel-Drive Cybertruck that the company had sold for a steal price of just $59,000 earlier this year.
After initially stating that customers who bought the pickup would be able to transfer FSD purchases, Tesla recently changed the language in those terms and conditions to reflect that this would no longer be the case.
Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price
The adjustment in terminology has caused a handful of orderers to cancel their reservations due to the loss of FSD transfer:
Just cancelled my 59k CT order today. My screenshot from that day of order (feb 20th) clearly shows that it would be eligible.
Terms were retroactively modified. Our 2020 Y and 2023 S are just fine for now. pic.twitter.com/D9PFnId1B4
— Ryan Scanlan 👥 (@Xenius) June 8, 2026
Tesla said orders for the new Cybertruck AWD must be placed by March 31, 2026, to qualify for the FSD transfer. The language in the document from earlier this year explicitly states that they “may qualify” for the transfer program, but the date of March 31 is explicitly mentioned.
Additionally, Tesla Delivery Advisors reached out to some orderers of the AWD Cybertruck, who were told there was “an update to the eligibility of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) transfer.” Tesla stated they could:
- proceed without the transfer,
- upgrade to a Premium or Cyberbeast trim and request an FSD Transfer
- cancel the order and be refunded the $250 order fee.
Tesla turning around and changing these terms will undoubtedly result in a handful of cancellations on the part of those who have placed an order for this truck. They could pay $99 per month for an FSD subscription, which is now the only option available, but having purchased the suite outright on another vehicle and being told the transfer policy would be upheld, only to have it cancelled, is a tough pill to swallow.
These moves were also made by Tesla just before deliveries were set to begin on the Cybertruck AWD configuration. Reservation holders have started receiving VINs for their trucks, and Tesla is preparing to hand over the first units.
It’s a disappointing move from Tesla that will undoubtedly make some of its fans who have bought the truck frustrated.
In the world of autonomous ride-hailing, there are only a handful of names. Among those few companies lies a strategy play by each to keep the opposition on their toes. Tesla, on the other hand, already tipped its hand at where it is headed next.
Tesla has signaled its next major push in the autonomous ride-hailing market by filing for an Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit in Nevada (Docket 26-05015). Through Tesla Robotaxi, LLC, the company seeks approval to operate up to 5,000 robotaxis in Clark County, including high-traffic areas like Las Vegas and Henderson airports, within the first 12 months of launch.
This filing builds on Tesla’s earlier testing approvals from the Nevada DMV in September 2025 and preparations such as maintenance hubs in the Las Vegas area. Nevada represents a strategic expansion into a major tourist destination, where high visitor volumes could drive strong utilization and showcase the reliability of unsupervised autonomy to a broad audience.
We’d have to assume this means Tesla is targeting Las Vegas, and it’s a great move from a business perspective.
Vegas is such a melting pot of people from all around the country and the world. It will expose people from all corners of the globe to Tesla’s autonomy capabilities https://t.co/Qz3fQmhULF pic.twitter.com/Du5pj2RyWC
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 6, 2026
Approval would mark a significant step toward commercial operations in a new state, following progress in Texas.
Tesla’s shareholder decks and earnings calls have clearly outlined these ambitions. In the Q4 2025 shareholder deck, the company listed planned Robotaxi coverage for the first half of 2026, explicitly naming Las Vegas alongside Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, with Dallas and Houston already advancing. Austin was noted as “ramping unsupervised,” while the Bay Area remained in safety-driver mode.
By Q1 2026, the deck updated statuses to reflect launches in Dallas and Houston, with “preparations underway” for the remaining cities, including Las Vegas. Paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially in Q1, underscoring momentum even as broader timelines adjusted slightly for regulatory and operational readiness.
On earnings calls, CEO Elon Musk and executives have emphasized a phased rollout prioritizing safety. Unsupervised operations in Texas have shown strong results with no reported accidents or injuries in the program. Tesla continues groundwork in additional major U.S. metros through testing and permitting, positioning it to scale quickly once approvals clear.
This Nevada move aligns with Tesla’s vision of transforming from an EV maker into an AI and robotics leader. The forthcoming Cybercab, which started production at Giga Texas in April, is expected to eventually dominate the fleet, replacing many Model Y vehicles and driving down costs to enable affordable rides.
For investors and the industry, this signals Tesla’s intent to dominate key Sun Belt and tourist markets where weather, regulations, and demand favor rapid scaling. Success in Las Vegas could validate the model for denser urban and high-tourism environments, accelerating the shift toward a future where robotaxis generate meaningful revenue.
Las Vegas will also expand knowledge among the general public at Tesla’s capabilities, helping people experience driverless ride-hailing from several companies during their time on The Strip.
Tesla Full Self-Driving is taking over Europe: fourth country gets FSD approval
Tesla revises FSD transfer policy on new Cybertruck trim, causing cancellations
