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Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai’s 2021 Model 3 and Model Y production estimates are likely conservative

(Credit: Tesla)

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On its Q4 FY 2020 Update Letter, Tesla listed Gigafactory Shanghai’s annual vehicle production capacity at 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y, up from 250,000 in Q3 2020. This number is undoubtedly impressive, but if one were to look at recent reports and developments at the Shanghai-based site, it would seem that Tesla’s numbers for the facility in 2021 are fairly conservative. 

Data from the China Passenger Vehicle Association shows that 137,459 China-made Model 3 were sold locally last year, allowing it to be one of the country’s most popular electric cars. These numbers helped Tesla reach its goal of delivering half a million vehicles in 2020, an ambitious target considering the effects of the pandemic on the global auto segment. 

It should be noted that 2020 only marked the first year of Model 3 production in Gigafactory Shanghai. Within the year, which included government-mandated shutdowns due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, Tesla was able to ramp the production of the Model 3, while building out and starting the operations in the Model Y plant in the factory’s Phase 2 area. By November, industry insiders told local news agency 36 Krypton that Tesla China would be looking to build 550,000 cars in 2021, comprised of 300,000 Model 3 and 250,000 Model Y. 

These figures, at least based on the Q4 FY 2020 report, are notably higher than Tesla’s own estimates. However, it should be noted that Tesla’s Model Y plant in Gigafactory Shanghai will likely ramp faster than its Model 3 counterpart, partly due to the Model Y employing innovations such as the Giga Press, which makes vehicle production simpler and more cost-effective. Fewer interruptions due to the pandemic are also likely this year, considering China’s stringent anti-COVID policies. 

When reports of Giga Shanghai’s reported 550,000-vehicle production goal was reported, industry insiders cited by local news reports noted that Tesla China has already issued ordering requirements to core component suppliers. This suggests that since the latter part of 2020, Tesla has already been making preparations for its most notable vehicle production ramp to date in Gigafactory Shanghai. This was highlighted in a study from China Industrial Securities, which stated that Giga Shanghai has reached a production capacity of 8,000 vehicles per week.

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During the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Eon Musk noted that Tesla is on track to see a growth rate of about 50% every year. Considering the pieces that are in place in the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Shanghai, as well as the expected deployment of Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas later this year, Tesla’s 50% estimate may very well be conservative. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles.

Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s HW5 release date, and that it won’t be called HW5

AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.

It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.

It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.

Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:

Different Versions

Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.

This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.

Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions.

Apple concluded that the variance was about 2-3 percent. However, Tesla will look to avoid this altogether.

Release and Implementation into Vehicles

Musk said that some samples will be available next year, and “maybe a small number of units” would equip the chip as well. However, high-volume production is only possible in 2027.

This means, based on Tesla’s own timeline for Cybercab production in Q2 2026, early iterations of the vehicle would rely on AI4. Many believe AI4 can be utilized for solved self-driving, but the power of subsequent versions, including AI5 and beyond, will be more capable.

AI6 and Beyond

AI6 will utilize the same fabs as AI5, but there would be a theoretical boost in performance by two times with this version.

AI6 could enter volume production by mid-2028. However, AI7, which Musk only briefly mentioned, “will need different fabs, as it is more adventurous.”

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Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus

It appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.

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Image: Tesla China
Image: Tesla China

Tesla’s fully autonomous Cybercab made its first appearance in the Asia-Pacific region at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on November 5, becoming the centerpiece of an event that drew 12 of the world’s leading automakers. 

The new model offers a glimpse into Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing future, and based on the reception of the event’s attendees, it appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.

Tesla showcases its driverless vision with the Cybercab

At this year’s expo, themed “Mobility, Infinite Possibilities,” Tesla’s futuristic two-seat Cybercab stood out as a showcase of complete autonomy. According to Tesla staff, the vehicle lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla’s cameras and an end-to-end neural network designed for full self-driving.

The Cybercab will ultimately serve in the company’s expanding Robotaxi fleet, a cornerstone of Elon Musk’s long-promised autonomous mobility network. During the event, a Tesla employee emphasized that the Cybercab’s model’s compact layout reflects real-world usage, as 92% of trips involve just one or two passengers, as noted in a Sina News report. Trips that require more passengers could easily be handled by the Model 3 and Model Y, which are both capable of seating four, or even five passengers.

Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that is designed for both home and industrial use, was also present at the event. Similar to the Cybercab, Optimus also attracted quite a lot of attention from the event’s attendees.

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Automakers reaffirm commitment to Chinese innovation

Other global automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda, also displayed cutting-edge concept cars and intelligent systems, but few captured the same interest as Tesla’s bold showcase of its autonomy and robotics.

Beyond new models, this year’s CIIE highlighted a renewed focus on local innovation and collaboration in China’s rapidly evolving EV landscape. Executives from Volkswagen, Audi, and General Motors reaffirmed that their long-term strategies center on “in China, for China,” strengthening R&D operations and forming tech partnerships with domestic suppliers.

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Elon Musk

Tesla gets big nod on Musk comp package from Charles Schwab

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla got a big nod of approval on CEO Elon Musk’s newly-proposed compensation package from Wall Street firm Charles Schwab after many shareholders believed the company was aiming to go against the new pay structure for its frontman.

Yesterday, we reported on many Tesla investors threatening to leave Charles Schwab as their broker after it was assumed the firm would vote against Musk’s pay package. The impression was that Schwab would utilize the same voting strategies as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), which both said they would vote against the new compensation package.

However, Schwab reached out to TESLARATI directly yesterday to confirm that it had not made any statement on which way it would vote. It then confirmed to us that it would vote to support Musk’s pay package:

The statement to TESLARATI said:

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”

Schwab also came out with a new statement just after that would be released to the public, stating that its delayed decision on the compensation package was due to its “structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”

The firm uses a three-step program to determine its decision on a key vote like this one:

  1. board composition and quality
  2. actions a board has taken to drive strategy, deliver performance and manage relevant risks
  3. clarity and accessibility of reporting on key issues

It then said it applies its own internal guidelines and does not rely on recommendations from other firms, like Glass Lewis or ISS.

It continued:

“In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”

Charles Schwab then received kudos from the Tesla community on their decision to vote for Musk to receive this compensation package.

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