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Tesla heading towards new delivery record in Q4 despite demand concern narrative

Credit: Met God in Wilderness 在曠野遇見神/YouTube

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Tesla is anticipated to report a new delivery record in Q4 at the beginning of January. It remains to be seen if the potential milestone would be enough to reassure investors and analysts, considering the challenges being faced by the company, such as inflation, production headwinds in China, and the rise of legitimate competitors, among others.

In what seems to be a serious effort to reduce excess inventory, Tesla has offered a rare discount of $7,500 and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging to US customers who take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y before the end of the year. The strategy is perceived by some Tesla bulls as a way for the EV maker to attract customers this quarter, or at least before the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restores federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for specific electric vehicles starting January 1.

Tesla’s vehicle deliveries are a closely monitored statistic by TSLA bulls and bears as it provides a notable hint if Tesla can maintain its ambitious expansion goals. As per 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Tesla’s Q4 2022 deliveries could be on track to reach 420,760 vehicles. While this estimate does not include recent analyst projections, it does exceed Tesla’s previous record of 343,830 cars, which were delivered in Q3 2022. 

As the industry’s global leader in electric vehicles, Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from some of the IRA’s incentives for battery cell manufacturing and locally assembled EVs. To achieve its self-imposed goal of increasing deliveries by 50% annually over several years, however, Tesla may have to consider some compromises on its vehicles’ gross margins. This may be the case this quarter, with the company’s discounts for its vehicles. 

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Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla would aim to produce over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. Considering that the company has manufactured 929,910 cars in the first three quarters of 2022, it must produce over 570,000 additional vehicles to meet this goal, as per a Bloomberg News report. Tesla would likely not meet Elon Musk’s 1.5 million estimate for this year, but the company’s results would likely still be very impressive. 

Longtime Tesla bull Ben Kallo from Baird, for his part, recently noted that he expects the company to post deliveries of just 378,262 vehicles for the fourth quarter “to account for the reported slowdown in production and a weakening macro environment.” Despite this cautious stance, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock. “I’m worried about the general economic environment. Do people have the wallets to pay for $60,000 cars? That’s what the market is worried about too,” Kallo noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla Giga Berlin growth could stall if not “free from external influences”: Elon Musk

The comments were delivered in a pre-recorded video discussion.

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Credit: Andre Thierig/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has reportedly warned that future expansion of Gigafactory Berlin could be jeopardized if the site does not remain “free from external influences.”

Musk’s comments were delivered in a pre-recorded video discussion with employees and came at a sensitive moment for the facility, where union representation has been a recurring issue.

According to reports from Handelsblatt and Der Spiegel, citing participants at the event, Musk suggested that if Giga Berlin is no longer “free from external influences,” further expansion would become unlikely. He did not, however, hint that the plant would shut down.

While Musk did not name IG Metall directly, his remarks were widely interpreted as referencing the union, which is currently the largest faction on the works council but does not hold a majority, as noted in an electrive report. 

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The video conversation was conducted between Musk in Austin and Grünheide plant manager André Thierig, then played back to the workforce in Germany. Works council elections are scheduled for early March, heightening the tension between management and organized labor.

The CEO has previously voiced concerns that stronger union influence could limit Tesla’s operational flexibility and long-term strategy in Germany.

Despite the warning on expansion, Musk praised the Giga Berlin site during the same address, describing it as one of the most advanced factories worldwide and highlighting its cleanliness and team culture.

The discussion also reportedly touched on battery cell production. According to attendees cited in German media, Musk indicated that Tesla has begun ramping cell production at the site. That would mark a notable shift from earlier expectations that large-scale cell manufacturing in Brandenburg would not begin until 2027.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving’s newest behavior is the perfect answer to aggressive cars

According to a recent video, it now appears the suite will automatically pull over if there is a tailgater on your bumper, the most ideal solution for when a driver is riding your bumper.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving appears to have a new behavior that is the perfect answer to aggressive drivers.

According to a recent video, it now appears the suite will automatically pull over if there is a tailgater on your bumper, the most ideal solution for when a driver is riding your bumper.

With FSD’s constantly-changing Speed Profiles, it seems as if this solution could help eliminate the need to tinker with driving modes from the person in the driver’s seat. This tends to be one of my biggest complaints from FSD at times.

A video posted on X shows a Tesla on Full Self-Driving pulling over to the shoulder on windy, wet roads after another car seemed to be following it quite aggressively. The car looks to have automatically sensed that the vehicle behind it was in a bit of a hurry, so FSD determined that pulling over and letting it by was the best idea:

We can see from the clip that there was no human intervention to pull over to the side, as the driver’s hands are stationary and never interfere with the turn signal stalk.

This can be used to override some of the decisions FSD makes, and is a great way to get things back on track if the semi-autonomous functionality tries to do something that is either unneeded or not included in the routing on the in-car Nav.

FSD tends to move over for faster traffic on the interstate when there are multiple lanes. On two-lane highways, it will pass slower cars using the left lane. When faster traffic is behind a Tesla on FSD, the vehicle will move back over to the right lane, the correct behavior in a scenario like this.

Perhaps one of my biggest complaints at times with Full Self-Driving, especially from version to version, is how much tinkering Tesla does with Speed Profiles. One minute, they’re suitable for driving on local roads, the next, they’re either too fast or too slow.

When they are too slow, most of us just shift up into a faster setting, but at times, even that’s not enough, see below:

There are times when it feels like it would be suitable for the car to just pull over and let the vehicle that is traveling behind pass. This, at least up until this point, it appears, was something that required human intervention.

Now, it looks like Tesla is trying to get FSD to a point where it just knows that it should probably get out of the way.

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Tesla Megapack powers $1.1B AI data center project in Brazil

By integrating Tesla’s Megapack systems, the facility will function not only as a major power consumer but also as a grid-supporting asset.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Megapack battery systems will be deployed as part of a 400MW AI data center campus in Uberlândia, Brazil. The initiative is described as one of Latin America’s largest AI infrastructure projects.

The project is being led by RT-One, which confirmed that the facility will integrate Tesla Megapack battery energy storage systems (BESS) as part of a broader industrial alliance that includes Hitachi Energy, Siemens, ABB, HIMOINSA, and Schneider Electric. The project is backed by more than R$6 billion (approximately $1.1 billion) in private capital.

According to RT-One, the data center is designed to operate on 100% renewable energy while also reinforcing regional grid stability.

“Brazil generates abundant energy, particularly from renewable sources such as solar and wind. However, high renewable penetration can create grid stability challenges,” RT-One President Fernando Palamone noted in a post on LinkedIn. “Managing this imbalance is one of the country’s growing infrastructure priorities.”

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By integrating Tesla’s Megapack systems, the facility will function not only as a major power consumer but also as a grid-supporting asset.

“The facility will be capable of absorbing excess electricity when supply is high and providing stabilization services when the grid requires additional support. This approach enhances resilience, improves reliability, and contributes to a more efficient use of renewable generation,” Palamone added.

The model mirrors approaches used in energy-intensive regions such as California and Texas, where large battery systems help manage fluctuations tied to renewable energy generation.

The RT-One President recently visited Tesla’s Megafactory in Lathrop, California, where Megapacks are produced, as part of establishing the partnership. He thanked the Tesla team, including Marcel Dall Pai, Nicholas Reale, and Sean Jones, for supporting the collaboration in his LinkedIn post.

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