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Tesla heading towards new delivery record in Q4 despite demand concern narrative

Credit: Met God in Wilderness 在曠野遇見神/YouTube

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Tesla is anticipated to report a new delivery record in Q4 at the beginning of January. It remains to be seen if the potential milestone would be enough to reassure investors and analysts, considering the challenges being faced by the company, such as inflation, production headwinds in China, and the rise of legitimate competitors, among others.

In what seems to be a serious effort to reduce excess inventory, Tesla has offered a rare discount of $7,500 and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging to US customers who take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y before the end of the year. The strategy is perceived by some Tesla bulls as a way for the EV maker to attract customers this quarter, or at least before the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restores federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for specific electric vehicles starting January 1.

Tesla’s vehicle deliveries are a closely monitored statistic by TSLA bulls and bears as it provides a notable hint if Tesla can maintain its ambitious expansion goals. As per 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Tesla’s Q4 2022 deliveries could be on track to reach 420,760 vehicles. While this estimate does not include recent analyst projections, it does exceed Tesla’s previous record of 343,830 cars, which were delivered in Q3 2022. 

As the industry’s global leader in electric vehicles, Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from some of the IRA’s incentives for battery cell manufacturing and locally assembled EVs. To achieve its self-imposed goal of increasing deliveries by 50% annually over several years, however, Tesla may have to consider some compromises on its vehicles’ gross margins. This may be the case this quarter, with the company’s discounts for its vehicles. 

Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla would aim to produce over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. Considering that the company has manufactured 929,910 cars in the first three quarters of 2022, it must produce over 570,000 additional vehicles to meet this goal, as per a Bloomberg News report. Tesla would likely not meet Elon Musk’s 1.5 million estimate for this year, but the company’s results would likely still be very impressive. 

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Longtime Tesla bull Ben Kallo from Baird, for his part, recently noted that he expects the company to post deliveries of just 378,262 vehicles for the fourth quarter “to account for the reported slowdown in production and a weakening macro environment.” Despite this cautious stance, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock. “I’m worried about the general economic environment. Do people have the wallets to pay for $60,000 cars? That’s what the market is worried about too,” Kallo noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla aims to combat common Full Self-Driving problem with new patent

Tesla writes in the patent that its autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles are heavily reliant on camera systems to navigate and interact with their environment.

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Credit: @samsheffer | x

Tesla is aiming to combat a common Full Self-Driving problem with a new patent.

One issue with Tesla’s vision-based approach is that sunlight glare can become a troublesome element of everyday travel. Full Self-Driving is certainly an amazing technology, but there are still things Tesla is aiming to figure out with its development.

Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to get around this issue, and even humans need ways to combat it when they’re driving, as we commonly use sunglasses or sun visors to give us better visibility.

Cameras obviously do not have these ways to fight sunglare, but a new patent Tesla recently had published aims to fight this through a “glare shield.”

Tesla writes in the patent that its autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles are heavily reliant on camera systems to navigate and interact with their environment.

The ability to see surroundings is crucial for accurate performance, and glare is one element of interference that has yet to be confronted.

Tesla described the patent, which will utilize “a textured surface composed of an array of micro-cones, or cone-shaped formations, which serve to scatter incident light in various directions, thereby reducing glare and improving camera vision.”

The patent was first spotted by Not a Tesla App.

The design of the micro-cones is the first element of the puzzle to fight the excess glare. The patent says they are “optimized in size, angle, and orientation to minimize Total Hemispherical Reflectance (THR) and reflection penalty, enhancing the camera’s ability to accurately interpret visual data.”

Additionally, there is an electromechanical system for dynamic orientation adjustment, which will allow the micro-cones to move based on the angle of external light sources.

This is not the only thing Tesla is mulling to resolve issues with sunlight glare, as it has also worked on two other ways to combat the problem. One thing the company has discussed is a direct photon count.

CEO Elon Musk said during the Q2 Earnings Call:

“We use an approach which is direct photon count. When you see a processed image, so the image that goes from the sort of photon counter — the silicon photon counter — that then goes through a digital signal processor or image signal processor, that’s normally what happens. And then the image that you see looks all washed out, because if you point the camera at the sun, the post-processing of the photon counting washes things out.”

Future Hardware iterations, like Hardware 5 and Hardware 6, could also integrate better solutions for the sunglare issue, such as neutral density filters or heated lenses, aiming to solve glare more effectively.

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Delaware Supreme Court reinstates Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla CEO pay package

The unanimous decision criticized the prior total rescission as “improper and inequitable,” arguing that it left Musk uncompensated for six years of transformative leadership at Tesla.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The Delaware Supreme Court has overturned a lower court ruling, reinstating Elon Musk’s 2018 compensation package originally valued at $56 billion but now worth approximately $139 billion due to Tesla’s soaring stock price. 

The unanimous decision criticized the prior total rescission as “improper and inequitable,” arguing that it left Musk uncompensated for six years of transformative leadership at Tesla. Musk quickly celebrated the outcome on X, stating that he felt “vindicated.” He also shared his gratitude to TSLA shareholders.

Delaware Supreme Court makes a decision

In a 49-page ruling Friday, the Delaware Supreme Court reversed Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick’s 2024 decision that voided the 2018 package over alleged board conflicts and inadequate shareholder disclosures. The high court acknowledged varying views on liability but agreed rescission was excessive, stating it “leaves Musk uncompensated for his time and efforts over a period of six years.”

The 2018 plan granted Musk options on about 304 million shares upon hitting aggressive milestones, all of which were achieved ahead of time. Shareholders overwhelmingly approved it initially in 2018 and ratified it once again in 2024 after the Delaware lower court struck it down. The case against Musk’s 2018 pay package was filed by plaintiff Richard Tornetta, who held just nine shares when the compensation plan was approved.

A hard-fought victory

As noted in a Reuters report, Tesla’s win avoids a potential $26 billion earnings hit from replacing the award at current prices. Tesla, now Texas-incorporated, had hedged with interim plans, including a November 2025 shareholder-approved package potentially worth $878 billion tied to Robotaxi and Optimus goals and other extremely aggressive operational milestones.

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The saga surrounding Elon Musk’s 2018 pay package ultimately damaged Delaware’s corporate appeal, prompting a number of high-profile firms, such as Dropbox, Roblox, Trade Desk, and Coinbase, to follow Tesla’s exodus out of the state. What added more fuel to the issue was the fact that Tornetta’s legal team, following the lower court’s 2024 decision, demanded a fee request of more than $5.1 billion worth of TSLA stock, which was equal to an hourly rate of over $200,000.

Delaware Supreme Court Elon Musk 2018 Pay Package by Simon Alvarez

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Tesla Cybercab tests are going on overdrive with production-ready units

Tesla is ramping its real-world tests of the Cybercab, with multiple sightings of the vehicle being reported across social media this week.

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Credit: @JT59052914/X

Tesla is ramping its real-world tests of the Cybercab, with multiple sightings of the autonomous two-seater being reported across social media this week. Based on videos of the vehicle that have been shared online, it appears that Cybercab tests are underway across multiple states.

Recent Cybercab sightings

Reports of Cybercab tests have ramped this week, with a vehicle that looked like a production-ready prototype being spotted at Apple’s Visitor Center in California. The vehicle in this sighting was interesting as it was equipped with a steering wheel. The vehicle also featured some changes to the design of its brake lights.

The Cybercab was also filmed testing at the Fremont factory’s test track, which also seemed to involve a vehicle that looked production-ready. This also seemed to be the case for a Cybercab that was spotted in Austin, Texas, which happened to be undergoing real-world tests. Overall, these sightings suggest that Cybercab testing is fully underway, and the vehicle is really moving towards production.

Production design all but finalized?

Recently, a near-production-ready Cybercab was showcased at Tesla’s Santana Row showroom in San Jose. The vehicle was equipped with frameless windows, dual windshield wipers, powered butterfly door struts, an extended front splitter, an updated lightbar, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket. Interior updates include redesigned dash/door panels, refined seats with center cupholders, updated carpet, and what appeared to be improved legroom.

There seems to be a pretty good chance that the Cybercab’s design has been all but finalized, at least considering Elon Musk’s comments at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting. During the event, Musk confirmed that the vehicle will enter production around April 2026, and its production targets will be quite ambitious. 

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