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Tesla heading towards new delivery record in Q4 despite demand concern narrative

Credit: Met God in Wilderness 在曠野遇見神/YouTube

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Tesla is anticipated to report a new delivery record in Q4 at the beginning of January. It remains to be seen if the potential milestone would be enough to reassure investors and analysts, considering the challenges being faced by the company, such as inflation, production headwinds in China, and the rise of legitimate competitors, among others.

In what seems to be a serious effort to reduce excess inventory, Tesla has offered a rare discount of $7,500 and 10,000 miles of free Supercharging to US customers who take delivery of a new Model 3 or Model Y before the end of the year. The strategy is perceived by some Tesla bulls as a way for the EV maker to attract customers this quarter, or at least before the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) restores federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for specific electric vehicles starting January 1.

Tesla’s vehicle deliveries are a closely monitored statistic by TSLA bulls and bears as it provides a notable hint if Tesla can maintain its ambitious expansion goals. As per 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Tesla’s Q4 2022 deliveries could be on track to reach 420,760 vehicles. While this estimate does not include recent analyst projections, it does exceed Tesla’s previous record of 343,830 cars, which were delivered in Q3 2022. 

As the industry’s global leader in electric vehicles, Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from some of the IRA’s incentives for battery cell manufacturing and locally assembled EVs. To achieve its self-imposed goal of increasing deliveries by 50% annually over several years, however, Tesla may have to consider some compromises on its vehicles’ gross margins. This may be the case this quarter, with the company’s discounts for its vehicles. 

Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk noted that Tesla would aim to produce over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022. Considering that the company has manufactured 929,910 cars in the first three quarters of 2022, it must produce over 570,000 additional vehicles to meet this goal, as per a Bloomberg News report. Tesla would likely not meet Elon Musk’s 1.5 million estimate for this year, but the company’s results would likely still be very impressive. 

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Longtime Tesla bull Ben Kallo from Baird, for his part, recently noted that he expects the company to post deliveries of just 378,262 vehicles for the fourth quarter “to account for the reported slowdown in production and a weakening macro environment.” Despite this cautious stance, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock. “I’m worried about the general economic environment. Do people have the wallets to pay for $60,000 cars? That’s what the market is worried about too,” Kallo noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Cybertruck

Tesla begins wide rollout of Full Self-Driving v14 to Cybertruck

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Credit: Weibo (via YYDS on X)

Tesla has officially begun the wide rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14 to the Cybertruck about a month after the company started rolling it out to other vehicles in the fleet.

On Monday, Tesla officially started rolling out v14.1.5 to Cybertruck owners, the first FSD v14 rollout for owners of the all-electric pickup.

Owners have been anxiously waiting for Tesla to begin the wide release of v14 to Cybertruck, as the company said it would refine the suite for the vehicle.

Tesla has finally started rolling out to many owners, who are reporting that their Cybertrucks are downloading Software Update 2025.38.8.5, which contains FSD v14.1.5:

Tesla has to be more cautious with rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck than on other vehicles for a few reasons. Initially, the Cybertruck utilizes an all-wheel steering system that turns differently than the S3XY lineup. This creates a challenge for the Tesla AI team as they have to cater to this specific maneuvering change.

Additionally, the Cybertruck is much larger, and the exterior cameras responsible for seeing the vehicle’s surroundings are placed differently than those of the other vehicles.

This requires additional calibration to ensure safety.

The full release notes for Full Self-Driving v14.1.5 are as follows:

  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
  • Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

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Elon Musk shuts down Tesla ‘AMG’ division speculation: ‘Focus is autonomy’

“I think it’s best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla’s focus is autonomous cars, building futuristic autonomous cars. We want the future to look like the future.”

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Credit: Unplugged Performance

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by Joe Rogan late last week whether the company would ever consider establishing an “AMG division” like Mercedes-Benz has established for powerful, race-inspired vehicles.

However, Musk turned down any talk of that, highlighting that the company is laser-focused on autonomous vehicles, seemingly hinting that any distraction from autonomy would be a detriment to the future.

Rogan drives a Tesla Model S himself, but it is not your run-of-the-mill all-electric sedan. Already outfitted with the Plaid powertrain that Tesla developed, Rogan took his vehicle to Unplugged Performance for a true performance outfitting.

The vehicle is completely overhauled with performance parts and seats. Known as the Model S-APEX, Rogan took delivery of it from Unplugged in January.

Rogan asked Musk on Friday during his most recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast whether Tesla would ever establish an “AMG division” that would focus on catering Teslas to performance-based standards.

Musk said:

“I think it’s best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla’s focus is autonomous cars, building futuristic autonomous cars. We want the future to look like the future.”

Tesla fans have said for years that the company should consider acquiring Unplugged Performance and its Upfit Tesla division, which recently outfitted the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department’s fleet of Cybertruck cruisers.

However, it seems Tesla will keep things separate. Musk is primarily focused on autonomy, which will drive the technology forward and drive shareholder growth. Something like an outfitter for performance would be a cool thing for the owners who have the interest and the money.

It’s not a tremendous revenue driver or anything that would contribute to the financial state of the company. Mercedes-Benz, for example, is more accessible for consumers as it sold over 140,000 units from its AMG brand in 2024.

Tesla Model Y driver starts race in reverse, still wins against AMG SUV

It helps with driving revenue higher by as much as 15 percent compared to similar models that are not AMGs. However, would Tesla see this much of a benefit? Likely not, because the Performance trim already caters to many owners.

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Cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck fleet takes over at SpaceX’s Starbase

Interestingly, the Cybertruck uses the same exterior, a stainless steel alloy, as SpaceX rockets. This synergy between the two companies and their very different products shows a very unified mentality between Musk companies.

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Credit: @derek1ee | X

Tesla Cybertrucks have taken over at SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas, as hundreds of the all-electric pickup trucks were spotted late last week rounding out a massive fleet of vehicles.

The Cybertruck fleet is geared toward replacing gas vehicles that are used at Starbase for everyday operations. The only surprise about this is that it was not done sooner:

Deliveries have been going on for a few weeks, as Cybertrucks have made their way across the state of Texas from Austin to Starbase so they could be included in SpaceX’s fleet of vehicles at the facility.

Interestingly, the Cybertruck uses the same exterior, a stainless steel alloy, as SpaceX rockets. This synergy between the two companies and their very different products shows a very unified mentality between Musk companies.

However, there are some other perspectives to consider as SpaceX is utilizing such a massive fleet of Cybertrucks. Some media outlets (unsurprisingly) are seeing this as a move of weakness by both Tesla and SpaceX, as the aerospace company is, in a sense, “bailing out” lagging sales for the all-electric pickup.

It’s no secret that Tesla has struggled with the Cybertruck this year, and deliveries have been underwhelming in the sense that the company was anticipating between 1 million and 2 million orders for the vehicle before it was widely produced.

A lot of things changed with the Cybertruck between its 2019 unveiling and 2023 initial deliveries, most notably, price.

The price of the Cybertruck swelled significantly and priced out many of those who had pre-ordered it. Some have weighed the option of whether this purchase was a way to get rid of sitting inventory.

However, it seems more logical to consider the fact that SpaceX was likely always going to transition to Teslas for its fleet, especially at Starship, at some point.

It doesn’t seem out of the question that one Musk company would utilize another Musk company’s products, especially considering the Cybertruck has been teased as the vehicle that would be present on Mars.

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