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Tesla’s newest lineup trims ‘highly volume additive’ on path to 2M annual build rate
Tesla’s newest lineup additions are two “highly volume additive” vehicles that will help the automaker reach its potential 2 million unit annual production rate.
Last night, Tesla reintroduced the Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel-Drive, which has been absent from the company’s lineup since August due to a way-too-long waitlist.
It was the second trim that Tesla introduced this year, as the Model Y All-Wheel-Drive also was rolled out by the automaker in April.
Analyst and Tesla permabull Gary Black believes the roll-out of the two new vehicle trims will help the automaker achieve an even higher production rate as it aims for at least 1.8 million cars built in 2023.
However, there is potential that the new trims will contribute even further, especially because of their powertrains and prices that could help Tesla achieve 2 million vehicles this year.
“We believe both new trims will be highly volume additive,” Black wrote. “M-3 because it’s an AWD priced $6k below the M-3 Performance (pre-EV credit); M-Y SR because it’s at a lower price point than the best-selling M-3 LR AWD.”
3/ We expect M-3 LR AWD to quickly become M-3’s best selling trim, since many buyers will not buy a $40K+ car with RWD and M-3 Perf was priced at $53,240. M-Y LR AWD is by far the best selling M-Y trim. M-3 AWD has range of 325 mi and does 0-60 in 4.2 sec, vs M-3 RWD of 272 mi… pic.twitter.com/pPWo8RVkcP
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) May 3, 2023
The Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel-Drive is an ideal option for many buyers because it offers the same AWD powertrain as the Performance configuration but with more range.
Many drivers do not desire the acceleration or top speed the Performance Model 3 offers, making the Long Range AWD vehicle a more ideal option. This would be backed up by the waitlist being too long, as more buyers opted for this vehicle than the Performance.
After all, more range for $6,000 less, before the EV tax credit, is an ideal situation financially.
Additionally, the Model Y All-Wheel-Drive is less expensive than the re-introduced Model 3 LR AWD while offering additional room due to its crossover SUV body style.
Nevertheless, the Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel-Drive is still expected to become Tesla’s best-selling configuration of the all-electric sedan in Black’s estimation “since many buyers will not buy a $40k+ car with RWD and M-3 Performance was priced at $53,240.”
Tesla’s 2022 Production Goals
While Tesla has listed 1.8 million vehicles as the bogey for the year, CEO Elon Musk stated the number the automaker could actually accomplish is slightly higher during the Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call:
“I mean, our internal production potential is actually closer to 2 million vehicles, but we were saying 1.8 million because, I don’t know, there just always seems to be some freaking force majeure thing that happens somewhere on Earth. And we don’t control if there’s like earthquakes, tsunamis, wars, pandemics, etc. So if it’s a smooth year, actually, without some big supply chain interruption or massive problem, we actually have the potential to do 2 million cars this year.”
Musk is convinced demand is already high enough to reach that figure and with the two new trims being rolled out in the past month, there is a lot of indication Tesla will reach its 1.8 million unit goal easily.
The addition of the Model 3 LR AWD could be Tesla’s key to 2 million cars this year.
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Tesla’s Automatic Collision Evasion feature can be seen in one of the first owner videos of it in action.
Tesla owner Spencer (@scotsrule08) posted on Monday that the feature “worked flawlessly,” saying FSD reengaged itself just as he was about to hit a curb. Ashok Elluswamy, who leads Tesla’s AI team, shared the clip and wrote, “A guardian angel always looking out for you.”
The video arrives in the middle of a staged rollout. Tesla first shipped Automatic Collision Evasion with FSD (Supervised) v14.3.9 in software update 2026.27.6 earlier this month, which Teslarati covered as it reached cars. Update 2026.27.10, which began going out on September 19, carried the feature improvements with FSD v14.3.10, according to release notes tracked by Not a Tesla App. The newer 2026.27.11 build is now reaching another wave of vehicles.
The new Automatic Collision Evasion feature worked flawlessly! FSD reengaged itself just as I was about to hit a curb.
Kudos @Tesla_AI team! 👏 pic.twitter.com/Fbp15HhpL2
— Spencer (@scotsrule08) September 28, 2026
The feature only runs on HW4 vehicles, and it requires an active FSD purchase or subscription with both FSD (Supervised) and Automatic Emergency Braking enabled. HW3 owners receive FSD v14.2 Lite in the same updates, but that build does not include collision evasion.
Tesla’s release notes describe two triggers. The first is an imminent frontal collision that braking alone may not prevent, in which case the car can activate FSD to steer, brake or accelerate around the hazard. That scenario is limited to highways below 85 mph, with no pedestrians or cyclists detected and no slippery road surface. The second covers a driver who appears inattentive, such as reaching into the back seat, or who seems to have switched off FSD by accident. Spencer’s curb clip appears to fall into that second category.
Tesla plans big safety improvements for Full Self-Driving v15
Once the system takes over, the accelerator is muted and light brake input will not cancel the maneuver. Drivers need to apply firm, deliberate steering force to take back control, and the car chimes to hand control back once the danger has passed.
Elluswamy recently noted that earlier hazard prediction, faster reaction time and better collision avoidance would arrive with FSD v15, the next major version.
Tesla is delaying its event for the Roadster, moving it from this Thursday, October 1, to Thursday, October 15, due to unfavorable weather.
The company has said it has been tracking the weather for this Thursday closely with local meteorologists, and because the event can only be held outside, Tesla is making the call to delay it:
“We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule. New date is October 15. Additional details to follow.”
Roadster event update
We’ve been tracking the weather closely with local meteorologists, but given the severe conditions predicted & because this event can only be held outdoors, we’ve made the difficult decision to reschedule.
New date is October 15. Additional details to…
— Tesla (@Tesla) September 28, 2026
We are sure that this is bringing back PTSD for some Tesla fans, and we know it is not ideal, but this also reveals some things about the event. Tesla said that this can only be held outdoors, meaning it bodes well for the rumors that the vehicle could potentially hover.
Some believe that this was essentially confirmed by the FAA airspace restriction they were granted, but this could have been for a drone show or to keep drones from spying on the event.
Tesla Roadster is available for order once again following brief hold
The Roadster event has been long-awaited, and it is unfortunate that the weather is going to keep us all waiting a little bit longer.
The Tesla Roadster will be unveiled in Waco, Texas.
Elon Musk
SpaceX turned a heralding moment for Starship into its greatest
Starship reached orbit despite losing an engine, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Flight 14.
SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on Monday, and for a few nail-biting minutes it looked like it wouldn’t. During ascent on Flight 14, one of Ship 41’s six Raptor engines shut down early, and SpaceX’s livestream host Dan Huot told viewers the team had decided not to commit to orbit. Minutes later, after what Huot described as a lot of conversation in the control room, the final poll came back in favor, and a roughly 19 second burn of a single Raptor pushed the ship into orbit about 170 miles up.
The reversal matters because SpaceX had written the exit ramp into the mission plan. The company said it would only fire the orbital insertion burn if flight controllers confirmed enough backup hardware remained for the deorbit burn, a condition Teslarati laid out ahead of the flight. Losing an engine was exactly the scenario that rule was built for.
Pressing forward fits Elon Musk’s history. Falcon 1 failed three straight times before its fourth launch reached orbit in 2008, with SpaceX nearly out of money, and Starship was developed by flying prototypes until they broke. What changed this year SpaceX going public, and with $SPCX sliding below its IPO price in July when Flight 13 slipped, the short interest climbed significantly, as Teslarati reported at the time. A Starship potentially lost today with revenue generating next-gen Starlink satellites aboard would have landed directly on shareholders.
Splashdown confirmed. Congratulations to the entire SpaceX team on the first orbital flight of Starship! pic.twitter.com/urjmiwnvNl
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 28, 2026
That pressure showed up after orbit. SpaceX cut a flight planned to last nearly 10 hours to about three, moving splashdown from west of Chile to the North Pacific near Hawaii. SpaceX gave no reason, though Musk said this month the company was being extremely cautious about debris risk. The single Raptor for deorbit worked, and Ship 41 completed its flip and landing burn before breaking apart in the water, an outcome SpaceX expected. Musk has structured SpaceX’s governance to shield long term bets from market pressure.
The payload is the bigger business story. Musk posted that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and are “operating nominally.” Each V3 is rated for about 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink, so this single launch adds roughly 26 Tbps, about 10 times what a Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini satellites adds. The V3 is too large for Falcon 9, making Starship the only vehicle that can build out the planned 100,000 satellite constellation, at up to 60 per flight once it reaches routine service. Unlike the 20 V3 units on Flight 13, which reentered on a suborbital path, these will raise their orbits and could begin serving customers within weeks and bring in hundreds of millions of additional dollars in projected Starlink revenue.
SpaceX has already begun winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship. Reported targets put Flight 15 as early as October 19, leaving about three weeks to diagnose Monday’s engine shutdown before the next orbital attempt.
Starship’s 14th flight is set to launch on Monday, Sept 28. The 75-minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. CT. Live coverage of the mission starts ~35 minutes before launch → https://t.co/uQKQvgaTmJ
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 27, 2026
Watch Tesla’s “guardian angel” FSD feature take over for collision evasion
Tesla Roadster event gets delayed due to unfavorable weather
