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Tesla gets a $320 price target from Goldman Sachs

The bank cites weaker Q1 deliveries and demand challenges — but still believes in Tesla’s long-term software revenue growth thanks to FSD.

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Credit: @TeslaFrenzy/X

Goldman Sachs slightly cut its 12-month price target for Tesla from $345 to $320, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries in key regions and demand challenges.

“We lower our below consensus delivery estimates for Tesla, reflecting the quarter-to-date data for key regions (i.e., China, Europe, and the US), as well as what we believe are broader demand trends,” noted Goldman Sachs analysts.

The investment firm predicts Tesla will report Q1 2025 deliveries of 375,000 units, down from its previous forecast of 399,000 units. For perspective, the consensus for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries is 426,000 vehicles.

Goldman Sach’s prediction for Tesla in the first quarter is slightly above the company’s results in Q1 2024 when it delivered 386,810 units. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for Tesla is slightly above the company’s Q1 2023 results, when it delivered 422,875 vehicles.

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The bank stated that Tesla’s transition to the new Model Y contributed to its weak Q1 delivery forecast. However, it expects Giga Shanghai’s production ramp for the Model Y Juniper to improve deliveries in China this month. Goldman Sachs also observed that underlying demand for Teslas is “somewhat weaker” than previously expected.

It notes that Tesla’s US deliveries in February are “tracking flattish year-over-year.” In Europe, Goldman Sachs states Tesla registrations show a “>40% year-over-year decline” in January and a mid-to-high 20% drop in February in key markets like the United Kingdom and Spain. Meanwhile, in China, CPCA data reveal that Tesla’s retail sales have seen a mid-single-digit decline year-over-year.

Despite its dreary predictions for Tesla in the short term, Goldman Sachs sees a bright future for the company. The bank still believes Tesla’s software revenue will grow long-term. It acknowledges Tesla’s progress with version 13 of Full Self-Driving (FSD).

However, it predicts that Tesla could struggle with monetizing FSD in China, where more competitors offer hand-free ADAS solutions. Goldman Sachs notes that Chinese competitors do not charge for incremental software packages.

Goldman Sachs is maintaining a Neutral rating on Tesla stock, emphasizing that its 2025 earnings estimates are below consensus.

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Tesla Giga Texas continues to pile up with Cybercab castings

Tesla sure is gathering a lot of Cybercab components around the Giga Texas complex.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

Tesla may be extremely tight-lipped about the new affordable models that it was expected to start producing in the first half of the year, but the company sure is gathering a lot of Cybercab castings around the Giga Texas complex. This is, at least, as per recent images taken of the facility. 

Cybercab castings galore

As per longtime drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, who has been chronicling the developments around the Giga Texas complex for several years now, the electric vehicle maker seems to be gathering hundreds of Cybercab castings around the factory. 

Based on observations from industry watchers, the drone operator appears to have captured images of about 180 front and 180 rear Cybercab castings in his recent photos.

Considering the number of castings that were spotted around Giga Texas, it would appear that Tesla may indeed be preparing for the vehicle’s start of trial production sometime later this year. Interestingly enough, large numbers of Cybercab castings have been spotted around the Giga Texas complex in the past few months.

Cybercab production

The Cybercab is expected to be Tesla’s first vehicle that will adopt the company’s “unboxed” process. As per Tesla’s previous update letters, volume production of the Cybercab should start in 2026. So far, prototypes of the Cybercab have been spotted testing around Giga Texas, and expectations are high that the vehicle’s initial trial production should start this year. 

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With the start of Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi service around Austin, it might only be a matter of time before the Cybercab starts being tested on public roads as well. When this happens, it would be very difficult to deny the fact that Tesla really does have a safe, working autonomous driving system, and it has the perfect vehicle for it, too.

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Investor's Corner

Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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Tesla China achieves this year’s second highest domestic sales in June

The figure represents Tesla’s second-best performance in 2025 so far.

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Domestic sales for Tesla China reached 61,484 units in June, marking a sharp recovery from recent months and positioning the company for a stronger finish to the second quarter. The figure represents Tesla’s second-best performance in 2025 so far, trailing only March, when the company delivered 74,127 vehicles domestically.

A strong comeback for Tesla China

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla sold a total of 71,599 cars wholesale in June 2025. This means that Tesla’s domestic sales last month rose 59.3% compared to May’s 38,588 units and increased 3.75% year-over-year from 59,261 units in June 2024, as noted in a CNEV Post report. 

The rebound ends a two-month streak of year-over-year declines and helped lift Tesla’s Q2 retail total in China to 128,803 units, though that still marks an 11.7% drop from the same period last year. For context, Tesla China sold 263,410 vehicles domestically, down 5.36% year-over-year, in the first six months of 2025.

Tesla’s stronger domestic showing in June came as the company scaled back its export output from Giga Shanghai. The factory exported 10,115 vehicles last month, down 56.2% from May and 13.9% from a year earlier. For the first half of 2025, Tesla China’s total exports reached 101,064 units, down 31.85% compared to the same period in 2024.

Tesla China’s 2025 performance

June saw continued growth across China’s broader new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with retail sales reaching 1.11 million units, up 29.7% year-over-year. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 661,000 of those sales. Tesla’s NEV market share for June was then 5.53%, down from 6.92% a year earlier but an improvement over May’s 3.78%.

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The Model Y continues to be Tesla China’s primary driver of sales, with the vehicle’s wholesale figures reaching 51,253 units in June, up 16.6% from a year ago and nearly 30% from May. Wholesale numbers for the Model Y totaled 214,034 units in the first six months of the year. The Model 3, in comparison, saw wholesale volumes reach 150,440 units in the first six months of the year.

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