As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
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Tesla Cybercab display highlights interior wizardry in the small two-seater
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
The Tesla Cybercab is currently on display at the U.S. Department of Transportation in Washington, D.C., and observations of the production vehicle are highlighting some of its notable design details.
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
Observers of the Cybercab display unit noted that the two-seat Robotaxi provides unusually generous legroom for a vehicle of its size. Based on the vehicle’s video, the compact two-seater appears to offer more legroom than Tesla’s larger vehicles such as the Model Y, Model X, and Cybertruck.
The Cybercab’s layout allows Tesla to dedicate nearly the entire cabin to passengers. The vehicle is designed without a steering wheel or pedals, which helps maximize interior space.
Footage from the display also highlights the Cybercab’s large center screen, which is positioned prominently in front of the passenger bench. The display appears intended to provide entertainment and ride information while the vehicle operates autonomously.
Images of the vehicle also show an additional camera integrated into the Cybercab’s C-pillar. The extra camera appears to expand the vehicle’s field of view, which would be useful as Tesla works toward fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving.
Tesla engineers have previously explained that the Cybercab was designed to be highly efficient both in manufacturing and in operation. Cybercab Lead Engineer Eric E. stated in 2024 that the Robotaxi would be built with roughly half the number of parts used in a Model 3 sedan.
“Two seats unlocks a lot of opportunity aerodynamically. It also means we cut the part count of Cybercab down by a substantial margin. We’re gonna be delivering a car that has roughly half the parts of Model 3 today,” the Tesla engineer said.
The Tesla engineer also noted that the Cybercab’s cargo area can accommodate multiple golf bags, two carry-on suitcases, and two full-size checked bags. The trunk can also fit certain bicycles and a foldable wheelchair depending on size, which is quite impressive for a small car like the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI wins permit for power plant supporting AI data centers
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
Mississippi regulators have approved a permit allowing Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI to construct a natural gas power plant in Southaven. The facility is expected to support the company’s expanding AI infrastructure tied to its Colossus data center operations near Memphis.
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
According to the report, regulators “voted to approve the permit” of xAI subsidiary MZX Tech LLC to construct a power plant featuring 41 natural gas-burning turbines “after careful consideration of all public comments and community concerns.”
The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality stated that the permit followed a regulatory review process that included public comments and community input. Jaricus Whitlock, air division chief for the MDEQ, stated that the project met all applicable environmental standards.
“The proposed PSD permit in front of the board today not only meets all state and federal permitting regulations, but goes above and beyond what is required by law. MDEQ and the EPA agree that not a single person around our facilities will be exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution,” Whitlock stated.
The planned facility will help provide electricity for xAI’s AI computing infrastructure in the Memphis region.
The Southaven project forms part of xAI’s efforts to scale computing capacity for its artificial intelligence systems.
The company currently operates two major data centers in Memphis, known as Colossus 1 and Colossus 2, which provide computing power for xAI’s Grok AI models. xAI is also planning to build another large data center in Southaven called Macrohardrr, which would be located in a warehouse previously used by GXO Logistics.
Large-scale AI training requires substantial computing power and electricity, prompting technology companies to develop dedicated energy infrastructure for their data centers.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously stated that xAI plans to develop 1.2 gigawatts of power capacity for its Memphis-area AI supercomputer site as part of the federal government’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge. The commitment was announced during an event with United States President Donald Trump.
“As part of today’s commitment, we will take extensive additional steps to continue to reduce the costs of electricity for our neighbors. xAI will therefore commit to develop 1.2 GW of power as our supercomputer’s primary power source. That will be for every additional data center as well. We will expand what is already the largest global Megapack power installation in the world,” Shotwell said.
“The installation will provide enough backup power to power the city of Memphis, and more than sufficient energy to power the town of Southaven, Mississippi where the data center resides. We will build new substations and invest in electrical infrastructure to provide stability to the area’s grid.”
Elon Musk
Tesla China teases Optimus robot’s human-looking next-gen hands
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
A new teaser shared by Tesla’s China team appears to show a pair of unusually human-like hands for Optimus.
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
As could be seen in the teaser image, the new version of Optimus’ hands features proportions and finger structures that look strikingly similar to those of a human hand. Their appearance suggests that they might have dexterity approaching that of a human hand.
If the image reflects a new generation of Optimus’ hands, it could indicate Tesla is continuing to refine one of the most critical components of its humanoid robot.
Hands are widely viewed as one of the most difficult engineering challenges in robotics. For Optimus to perform complex real-world work, from manufacturing tasks to household activities, its hands would need to be the best in the industry.
Elon Musk has repeatedly described Optimus as Tesla’s most important long-term product. In posts on social media platform X, Musk has stated that Optimus could eventually become the first real-world Von Neumann machine.
In theory, a Von Neumann machine is a self-replicating system capable of building copies of itself using available materials. The concept was originally proposed by mathematician John von Neumann in the mid-20th century.
“Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
If Optimus is expected to carry out complex work autonomously in the future, high levels of dexterity will likely be essential. This makes the development of advanced robotic hands a key step towards Musk’s long-term expectations for the product.
Tesla Cybercab display highlights interior wizardry in the small two-seater
Elon Musk’s xAI wins permit for power plant supporting AI data centers
