As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
Elon Musk
Tesla is ramping up its advertising strategy on social media
Tesla has long stood out in the automotive world for its unconventional approach to advertising—or, more accurately, its near-total avoidance of it. For over a decade, the company spent virtually nothing on traditional marketing.
Tesla seems to be ramping up its advertising strategy on social media once again. Marketing and advertising have not been a major focus of Tesla’s, something that has brought some criticism to the company from its fans.
However, the company looks to be making adjustments to that narrative, as it has at times in the past, as ads were spotted on several different platforms over the past few days.
On Facebook and YouTube, ads were spotted that were evidently placed by Tesla. On Facebook, Tesla was advertising Full Self-Driving, and on YouTube, an ad for its Energy Division was spotted:
Tesla also threw up some ads on YouTube for Energy https://t.co/19DGQMjBsA pic.twitter.com/XQRfgaDKxY
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 9, 2026
Tesla has long stood out in the automotive world for its unconventional approach to advertising—or, more accurately, its near-total avoidance of it. For over a decade, the company spent virtually nothing on traditional marketing.
In 2022, Tesla’s U.S. ad spend was roughly $152,000, a rounding error compared to General Motors’ $3.6 billion the following year.
Traditional automakers averaged about $495 per vehicle on ads; Tesla spent $0. CEOElon Musk’s stance was explicit: “Tesla does not advertise or pay for endorsements,” he posted on X in 2019. “Instead, we use that money to make the product great.”
The strategy relied on word-of-mouth from delighted owners, Elon’s massive X following, viral product launches, media frenzy, and customer referrals. A great product, Musk argued, sells itself. It does not need Super Bowl spots or billboards. Resources poured into R&D instead, with Tesla investing nearly $3,000 per car, far more than rivals.
Tesla counters jab at lack of advertising with perfect response
This reluctance wasn’t arrogance; it was philosophy, and Musk made it clear that the money was better spent on the product. Heavy spending on ads was seen as wasteful when innovation and authenticity drove organic demand. Shareholder calls for marketing budgets were ignored.
The current shift, paid Facebook ads promoting Full Self-Driving (Supervised) and YouTube Shorts offering up to $1,000 back on Powerwall batteries, marks a pragmatic evolution.
These targeted campaigns coincide with the end of one-time FSD purchases and a March 31 deadline for FSD transfer eligibility on new vehicles.
This move likely signals Tesla adapting to scale, as well as a more concerted effort to stop misinformation regarding its platform. As EV competition intensifies and the company bets big on robotaxis and energy storage, pure organic buzz may not suffice to hit adoption targets. Selective digital ads allow precise, cost-effective reach without abandoning core principles.
If successful, it could foreshadow measured expansion into marketing, boosting high-margin software and home energy revenue while preserving Tesla’s innovative edge. But, it’s nice to see the strategy return, especially as Tesla has been reluctant to change its mind in the past.
News
Tesla Model Y outsells everything in three states, but Ford dominates
The Model Y’s success here highlights accelerating mainstream adoption of electric SUVs, which offer spacious interiors, impressive range, rapid acceleration, and low operating costs.
The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling vehicle in three different states in the U.S. last year, according to new data that shows the all-electric crossover outsold every other car in a few places. However, Ford widely dominated the sales figures with its popular F-Series of pickups.
According to new vehicle registration data compiled by Edmunds and visualized by Visual Capitalist, the Ford F-Series, encompassing models like the F-150, F-250, F-350, and F-450, claimed the title of best-selling vehicle in 29 states.
This dominance underscores the pickup truck’s unbreakable appeal across much of the country, particularly in rural, Midwestern, Southern, and Western states, where towing capacity, durability, and utility for work or recreation remain top priorities.
The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling vehicle in California, Washington, and Nevada
How many states will it dominate next year? https://t.co/ERyoyce42D
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 9, 2026
The F-Series has held the crown as America’s overall best-selling vehicle for decades, a streak that continued strong into 2025 despite broader market shifts.
Yet, amid this truck-heavy reality, Tesla made a notable breakthrough. The Model Y emerged as the top-selling vehicle, not just the leading EV, but the outright best-seller in three key states: California, Nevada, and Washington.
These West Coast strongholds reflect regions with robust EV infrastructure, high environmental awareness, generous incentives, and tech-savvy populations. In California alone, nearly 50 percent of new vehicle registrations were electrified, far outpacing the national average of around 25 percent.
The Model Y’s success here highlights accelerating mainstream adoption of electric SUVs, which offer spacious interiors, impressive range, rapid acceleration, and low operating costs.
Elon Musk: Tesla Model Y is world’s best-selling car for 3rd year in a row
Elsewhere, Japanese crossovers filled many gaps: Toyota’s RAV4 and Honda’s CR-V topped charts in several urban and densely populated Northeastern and Midwestern states, where fuel efficiency, reliability, and family-friendly features win out over larger trucks.
While Ford’s broad reach shows traditional preferences persist, at least for now, Tesla’s Model Y victories in high-population, influential states signal a gradual but undeniable transition toward electrification. As charging networks expand and battery technology improves, more states could follow the West Coast’s lead in the coming years.
This 2025 map captures a pivotal moment: pickup trucks still rule the majority, but EVs are carving out meaningful territory where consumer priorities align with sustainability and innovation. The road ahead promises continued competition between legacy giants and electric disruptors.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares updated Starship V3 maiden launch target date
The comment was posted on Musk’s official account on social media platform X.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared a brief Starship V3 update in a post on social media platform X, stating the next launch attempt of the spacecraft could take place in about four weeks.
The comment was posted on Musk’s official account on social media platform X.
Musk’s update suggests that Starship Flight 12 could target a launch around early April, though the schedule will depend on several remaining milestones at SpaceX’s Starbase launch facility in Texas.
Among the key steps is testing and certification of the site’s new launch tower, launch mount, and tank farm systems. These upgrades will support the next generation of Starship vehicles.
Booster 19 is expected to roll to the launch site and be placed on the launch mount before returning to the production facility to receive its 33 Raptor engines. The booster would then return for a static fire test, which could mark the first time a Super Heavy booster equipped with Raptor V3 engines is fired on the pad.
Ship 39 is expected to undergo a similar preparation process. The vehicle will likely return to the production site to receive its six engines before heading to Massey’s test site for static fire testing.
Once both stages are prepared, the booster and ship will roll out to the launch site for the first full stack of a V3 Super Heavy and V3 Starship. A full wet dress rehearsal is expected to follow before any launch attempt.
Elon Musk has previously shared how SpaceX plans to eventually recover Starship’s upper stage using the launch tower’s robotic arms. Musk noted that the company will only attempt to catch the Starship spacecraft after two successful soft landings in the ocean. The approach is intended to reduce risk before attempting a recovery over land.
“Should note that SpaceX will only try to catch the ship with the tower after two perfect soft landings in the ocean. The risk of the ship breaking up over land needs to be very low,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Such a milestone would represent a major step toward the full reuse of the Starship system, which remains a central goal for SpaceX’s long-term launch strategy.
Tesla is ramping up its advertising strategy on social media
Tesla Model Y outsells everything in three states, but Ford dominates
