As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
News
Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service
Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.
Tesla has created a clever solution to simplify and improve its Service. Tesla performs most of the services that are needed on its vehicles at its company-owned Service Centers.
However, service has been a weak point of the company, as some regions have fewer Service Centers than others. This can cause long wait times for Tesla owners in some parts of the country.
There are also instances where customers do not agree with what Tesla is saying about their vehicle. In fact, one instance that revealed this new change Tesla is making to its Service was precisely that.
One owner posted on X that his vehicle’s battery seal had failed after a recall was issued. Tesla insurance and Tesla Service both did not assist, and it took CEO Elon Musk stepping in to get the issue resolved:
Will investigate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2025
Another owner suggested there should be a more streamlined communications process between the customer and the Service Center, a solution that has been missing.
Raj Jegannathan, a Vice President of IT/AI-Infra, Apps, Infosec, and Vehicle Service Operations, revealed that Tesla has started a small pilot program at a few service locations to combat this issue.
Elon Musk wants Tesla Service to fix two-thirds of cars in the same day
Jegannathan said that Tesla has started to share local and regional leader contact information so customers have the ability to reach out when they have complaints or disagree with warranty claims, changes in estimates, or initial diagnostics.
It is available in a handful of locations already, and Jegannathan said that once abuse guardrails are built, this will expand to all locations:
In few service locations, started to share local and regional leader contact information via service in-take in mobile in-app messages so customers can reach out via phone when they disagree with initial diagnostic/warranty/changes in estimates. (Once we build guardrails from…
— Raj Jegannathan (@r_jegaa) August 7, 2025
This would be a major improvement in the Service portion of Tesla’s business. There are common disagreements between Service and customers, specifically when Service’s suggestions don’t align with the customer’s beliefs.
When it comes to things like a warranty claim, these issues are not really up for interpretation. Instead, the repairs should be made. If there is a misunderstanding on Service’s side, a simple message from the customer could have resolved the issue. That’s basically what happened here.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’
He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.
Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”
That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.
Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.
He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:
“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”
The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.
Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:
“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”
Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.
Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter
He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.
Elon Musk
Tesla expands Robotaxi program in Austin to new riders
Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.
Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, as several people have received invitations to participate and take rides.
Tesla first launched the Robotaxi platform on June 22. It invited a handful of people to participate in the first-ever public rides. We were lucky enough to get an invitation, and our permissions have been expanded in the Bay Area pilot program as well.
The group was small and consisted of big names in the Tesla community. It expanded and is continuing to offer these exclusive invitations to notable members of the Tesla community.
There have been fewer than five subsequent invitations after the first group’s were sent in late June:
I’m so stoked!! LFG 🙌🏽🙌🏽 @Tesla @Tesla_AI @robotaxi @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/F4chRhMjc9
— Arash (@MinimalDuck) August 7, 2025
I finally got it, guys!! 💯🙌 @robotaxi early access invite 🤠
Wait, does it mean I have to be 65 or wait another 65 years? 😎 pic.twitter.com/yAVPHXISY6
— JeebsTX 🇺🇸 (@JeebsTX) August 7, 2025
Tesla has been expanding both the rider group and the geofence in Austin slowly, making sure to prioritize safety and avoid any major events with the early rollout.
Tesla’s new Robotaxi geofence shape is an FU by Elon Musk to the competition
“We are being very cautious. We do not want to take any chances, so we are going to go cautiously. But the service areas and the number of vehicles in operation will increase at a hyper-exponential rate,” CEO Elon Musk said during the Q2 Earnings Call.
Eventually, the Robotaxi platform will not require an invite, and it will operate without geofences. Musk believes Tesla can get there within three or six months, and plans to have at least half of the U.S. population with access to a Robotaxi by the end of the year:
🚨Tesla plans to offer driverless Robotaxi rides to half the U.S. population by the end of the year, Musk says https://t.co/xEDoTF6fIt
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 23, 2025
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That’s at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals. I think we will technically be able to do it. Assuming we have regulatory approvals, it’s probably addressing half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year.”
Tesla plans to have regulatory approval in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida sooner than in other states.
Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service
Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’
Tesla expands Robotaxi program in Austin to new riders
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