As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
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Tesla targets production increase at Giga Berlin in 2026
Plant manager André Thierig confirmed the facility’s stable outlook to the DPA, noting that Giga Berlin implemented no layoffs or shutdowns amid challenging market conditions.
Tesla is looking positively toward 2026 with plans for further growth at its Grünheide factory in Germany, following steady quarterly increases throughout 2025.
Plant manager André Thierig confirmed the facility’s stable outlook to the Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA), noting that Giga Berlin implemented no layoffs or shutdowns despite challenging market conditions.
Giga Berlin’s steady progress
Thierig stated that Giga Berlin’s production actually rose in every quarter of 2025 as planned, stating: “This gives us a positive outlook for the new year, and we expect further growth.” The factory currently supplies over 30 markets, with Canada recently being added due to cost advantages.
Giga Berlin’s expansion is still underway, with the first partial approval for capacity growth being secured. Preparations for a second partial approval are underway, though the implementation of more production capacity would still depend on decisions from Tesla’s US leadership.
Over the year, updates to Giga Berlin’s infrastructure were also initiated. These include the relocation of the Fangschleuse train station and the construction of a new road. Tesla is also planning to start battery cell production in Germany starting 2027, targeting up to 8 GWh annually.
Resilience amid market challenges
Despite a 48% drop in German registrations, Tesla maintained Giga Berlin’s stability. Thierig highlighted this, stating that “We were able to secure jobs here and were never affected by production shutdowns or job cuts like other industrial sites in Germany.”
Thierig also spoke positively towards the German government’s plans to support households, especially those with low and middle incomes, in the purchase and leasing of electric vehicles this 2026. “In our opinion, it is important that the announcement is implemented very quickly so that consumers really know exactly what is coming and when,” the Giga Berlin manager noted.
Giga Berlin currently employs around 11,000 workers, and it produces about 5,000 Model Y vehicles per week, as noted in an Ecomento report. The facility produces the Model Y Premium variants, the Model Y Standard, and the Model Y Performance.
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Tesla revamped Semi spotted, insane 1.2 MW charging video releases
These developments highlight Tesla’s ongoing refinements to the vehicle’s design and infrastructure.
Tesla is gearing up for high-volume Semi production in 2026, with the Class 8 all-electric truck’s revamped variant being spotted in the wild recently. Official footage from Tesla also showed the Semi achieving an impressive 1.2 MW charging rate on a charger.
These developments highlight Tesla’s ongoing refinements to the vehicle’s design and infrastructure.
Revamped Tesla Semi sighting
Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, who has been chronicling the progress of the vehicle’s Nevada factory, recently captured exclusive drone footage of the refreshed Class 8 truck at a Megacharger stall near Giga Nevada. The white unit features a full-width front light bar similar to the Model Y and the Cybercab, shorter side windows, a cleared fairing area likely for an additional camera, and diamond plate traction strips on the steps.
Overall, the revamped Semi looks ready for production and release. The sighting marks one of the first real-life views of the Class 8 all-electric truck’s updated design, with most improvements, such as potential 4680 cells and enhanced internals, being hidden from view.
1.2 MW charging speed and a new connector
The official Tesla Semi account on X also shared an official video of Tesla engineers hitting 1.2 MW sustained charging on a Megacharger, demonstrating the vehicle’s capability for extremely rapid charging. Tesla Semi program lead Dan Priestley confirmed in a later post on X that the test occurred at a dedicated site, noting that chargers at the Semi factory in Nevada are also 1.2 MW capable.
The short video featured a revamped design for the Semi’s charging port, which seems more sleek and akin to the NACS port found in Tesla’s other vehicles. It also showed the Tesla engineers cheering as the vehicle achieved 1.2 MW during its charging session. Dan Priestley explained the Semi’s updated charging plug in a post on X.
“The connector on the prior Semi was an early version (v2.4) of MCS. Not ‘proprietary’ as anyone could have used it. We couldn’t wait for final design to have >1MW capability, so we ran with what had been developed thus far. New Semi has latest MCS that is set to be standard,” the executive wrote in a post on X.
Check out the Tesla Semi’s sighting at the Nevada factory in the video below.
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Tesla FSD successfully completes full coast-to-coast drive with zero interventions
Tesla community members celebrated the milestone on X, and the feat earned praise from some of the electric vehicle maker’s executives.
A Tesla owner has successfully completed a full coast-to-coast drive across the United States on Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised. The trip was accomplished with zero interventions.
Tesla community members celebrated the milestone on X, and the feat earned praise from some of the electric vehicle maker’s executives.
FSD Coast-to-Coast
The coast-to-coast feat was accomplished by Tesla owner Davis Moss, who drives a stealth gray Model 3 with AI4 hardware. Based on data from the FSD database and a community tracker, the last 10,638.8 miles Moss drove in his Model 3 were completed using FSD 100% of the time. His vehicle is equipped with FSD v14.2.1.25, which was installed 12 days ago.
As per Moss in a celebratory post on X, his Model 3 was able to complete a full coast-to-coast drive across the United States in 2 days and 20 hours. His trip started at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles, CA, and it ended in Myrtle Beach, SC. Overall, his trip spanned 2,732.4 miles.
“This was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 with absolutely 0 disengagements of any kind even for all parking including at Tesla Superchargers,” Moss stated in his post. He also added in later comments that there were zero close calls during the trip.
Tesla community celebrates
The FSD milestone trip was widely lauded by members of the Tesla community, especially since a coast-to-coast drive with zero interventions has been cited by Elon Musk as a target since October 2016, when Autopilot 2.0 was unveiled. At the time, Musk initially estimated that a coast-to-coast drive across the United States should be possible by the end of 2017. Considering Moss’ feat in his Model 3, it appears that Elon Musk’s estimate was not impossible at all. It was just late.
Musk himself celebrated the milestone on X, and so did Tesla VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy, who wrote “World’s first fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive, done with Tesla self-driving v14. Congrats and thank you @DavidMoss!” in a post on X. The official Tesla North America account also celebrated the feat, writing “First Tesla to drive itself from coast to coast w/ FSD Supervised. 0 interventions, all FSD” on X.
Tesla targets production increase at Giga Berlin in 2026
Tesla revamped Semi spotted, insane 1.2 MW charging video releases
