As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).
Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.
“ISIS”
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 27, 2021
The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.
However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.
The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”
However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”
The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.
If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.
Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.
Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+
Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”
News
Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its centerscreen in a coming update
In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38

Tesla is adding an interesting feature to its center touchscreen in a coming update, according to a noted hacker.
In a recent dissection of coding, Tesla hacker green noticed that the company is bringing in screenshare with Software Update 2025.38. Details on the use case are slim, but he said the feature would export the car screen so it could be viewed remotely.
It would bring up a notification on the screen, along with a four-digit pin that would link the two together:
hm, have not noticed at first, but 2025.38 also brings in a “screenshare” service to export the car screen so you can view it remotely (details are unclear yet).
When you do it there’s going to be a notification on the screen. Secured by a super-duper static 4-digits pin…— green (@greentheonly) October 17, 2025
As previously mentioned, the use case is unclear, but there are some ideas. One of which is for remote support, which is something Apple has used to help resolve issues with its products.
Support staff and employees routinely tap into customers’ screens to help resolve issues, so this could be a way Tesla could also use it.
This seems especially relevant with Robotaxi, as the screen might be a crucial part of resolving customer complaints when there is no employee in the car.
Additionally, it seems as if it will not be exclusive to those owners who have newer vehicles that utilize the AMD chip. Intel will get support with the new feature as well, according to what green has noticed in the coding.
Finally, it could also be used with all sorts of content creation, especially as Full Self-Driving videos and what the vehicle sees in Driver Visualization.
As it is released, Tesla will likely release more information regarding what the screensharing mode will be used for.
For right now, many owners are wondering where it could actually work and what advantages it will offer for owners as well as the company itself.
Elon Musk
SpaceX posts Starship booster feat that’s so nutty, it doesn’t even look real
The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver almost looked like it was AI-generated.

SpaceX has shared a video of a remarkable feat achieved by Starship’s Super Heavy booster during its 11th flight test.
The Super Heavy booster’s feat was so impressive that the whole maneuver, which was captured on video, almost looked like it was AI-generated.
Super Heavy’s picture perfect hover
As could be seen in the video shared by SpaceX, Starship’s Super Heavy booster, which is nearly 400 feet tall, smoothly returned to Earth and hovered above the Gulf of America for a few seconds before it went for its soft water landing. The booster’s picture-perfect maneuver before splashing down all but capped a near-flawless mission for Starship, which is about to enter its V3 era with Flight 12.
The booster’s balance and stability were so perfect that some users on X joked that the whole thing looked AI-generated. Considering the size of Super Heavy, as well as the fact that the booster was returning from space, the hovering display all but showed that SpaceX is dead serious about keeping its dominant lead in the spaceflight sector.
Starship V2’s curtain call
As noted in a Space.com report, Flight Test 11 achieved every major goal SpaceX had set for the mission, including deploying Starlink mass simulators, relighting Raptor engines in space, and executing a stable reentry for both the Starship Upper Stage and the Super Heavy booster. The feat also marked the second time a Super Heavy booster has been reflown, a milestone in SpaceX’s quest to make the entire Starship system fully reusable.
Starship’s V2 vehicle will now give way to the upgraded Starship V3, which is designed for faster turnaround and higher payload capacity. The Starship program is expected to pursue even more aggressive targets in the coming months as well, with Elon Musk stating on social media platform X that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch for Starship Upper Stage as early as spring 2026.
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