As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reveals when SpaceX will perform first-ever Starship catch
“Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go,” Musk said.
Elon Musk revealed when SpaceX would perform the first-ever catch attempt of Starship, its massive rocket that will one day take life to other planets.
On Tuesday, Starship aced its tenth test flight as SpaceX was able to complete each of its mission objectives, including a splashdown of the Super Heavy Booster in the Gulf, the deployment of eight Starlink simulators, and another splashdown of the ship in the Indian Ocean.
It was the first launch that featured a payload deployment:
SpaceX Starship Flight 10 was so successful, it’s breaking the anti-Musk narrative
SpaceX was transparent that it would not attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster, something it has done on three previous occasions: Flight 5 on October 13, 2024, Flight 7 on January 16, and Flight 8 on March 6.
This time, it was not attempting to do so. However, there are bigger plans for the future, and Musk detailed them in a recent post on X, where he discussed SpaceX’s plans to catch Starship, which would be a monumental accomplishment.
Musk said the most likely opportunities for SpaceX to catch Starship itself would be Flight 13, Flight 14, and Flight 15, but it depends on “how well the V3 flights go.”
The Starship launched with Flight 10 was a V2, which is the same size as the subsequent V3 rocket but has a smaller payload-to-orbit rating and is less powerful in terms of initial thrust and booster thrust. Musk said there is only one more V2 rocket left to launch.
Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 27, 2025
V3 will be the version flown through 2026, as V4, which will be the most capable Starship build SpaceX manufactures, is likely to be the first company ship to carry humans to space.
Musk said that SpaceX planned to “hopefully” attempt a catch of Starship in 2025. However, it appears that this will likely be pushed back to 2026 due to timing.
SpaceX will take Starship catch one step further very soon, Elon Musk confirms
SpaceX would need to launch the 11th and 12th test flights by the end of the year in order to get to Musk’s expected first catch attempt of Flight 13. It’s not unheard of, but the company will need to accelerate its launch rate as it has only had three test flights this year.
News
Tesla Robotaxi rival Waymo confirms massive fleet expansion in Bay Area
New data from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said Waymo had 1,429 vehicles operating in California, and 875 of them were “associated with a terminal in San Francisco,” according to The SF Examiner.
Tesla Robotaxi rival Waymo has confirmed that it has expanded its fleet of driverless ride-sharing vehicles in the Bay Area of California massively since its last public disclosure.
It is perhaps one of the most important metrics in the race for autonomous supremacy, along with overall service area. Tesla has seemed to focus on the latter, while expanding its fleet slowly to maintain safety.
Waymo, on the other hand, is bringing its fleet size across the country to significant levels. In March, it told The SF Examiner that there were over 300 Waymos in service in the San Francisco area, which was not a significant increase from the 250 vehicles on the road it reported in August 2023.
In May, the company said in a press release that it had more than 1,500 self-driving Waymos operating nationwide. More than 600 were in the San Francisco area.
Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’
However, new data from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said Waymo had 1,429 vehicles operating in California, and 875 of them were “associated with a terminal in San Francisco,” according to The SF Examiner.
CPUC data from March 2025 indicated that there were a total of 1,087 Waymo vehicles in California, with 762 located in San Francisco. Some were test vehicles, others were deployed to operate as ride-sharing vehicles.
The company’s August update also said that it deploys more than 2,000 commercial vehicles in the United States. That number was 1,500 in May. There are also roughly 400 in Phoenix and 500 in Los Angeles.
While Waymo has done a good job of expanding its fleet, it has also been able to expand its footprint in the various cities it is operating in.
Most recently, it grew its geofence in Austin, Texas, to 90 square miles. This outpaced Tesla for a short period before the company expanded its Robotaxi service area earlier this week to roughly 170 square miles.
Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin
The two companies have drastically different approaches to self-driving, as Waymo utilizes LiDAR, while Tesla relies solely on cameras for its suite. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made no mistake about which he believes to be the superior solution to autonomy.
News
Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region
Today, Tesla launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for purchase by car buyers for $10,100, according to Aussie automotive blog Man of Many, which tried out the suite earlier this week.
Tesla has launched its Full Self-Driving suite in a new region, marking a significant step in the company’s progress to expand its driver assistance suite on a global scale.
It is also the first time Tesla has launched FSD in a right-hand-drive market.
Today, Tesla launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for purchase by car buyers for $10,100, according to Aussie automotive blog Man of Many, which tried out the suite earlier this week.
Previously, Basic and Enhanced Autopilot suites were available, but the FSD capability now adds Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control, along with all the features of the previous two Autopilot suites.
🚨 Tesla has officially launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for the price of $10,100 outright.
The move marks a significant step in Tesla’s progress to expand the suite on a global scale pic.twitter.com/zzHa8Ngqls
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 28, 2025
It is the first time Tesla has launched the suite by name in a region outside of North America. In China, Tesla has “City Autopilot,” as it was not permitted to use the Full Self-Driving label for regulatory reasons.
However, Tesla still lists Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as available in the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.
The company teased the launch of the suite in Australia earlier this week, and it appeared to have been released to select media members in the region earlier this week:
Tesla FSD upcoming Australia release seemingly teased bv media
The rollout of Full Self-Driving in the Australian market will occur in stages, as Model 3 and Model Y vehicles with Hardware 4 will receive the first batch of FSD rollouts in the region.
TechAU also reported that “the initial deployment of FSDs in Australia will roll out to a select number of people outside the company, these people are being invited into Tesla’s Early Access Program.”
Additionally, the company reportedly said it is “very close” to unlocking FSD in customer cars:
BREAKING: Tesla has officially announced that FSD (Supervised) is launching in Australia, marking a huge milestone for the company.
The rollout will happen in stages. HW4 Model 3s and Model Ys will get it first. Tesla says it is “very close” to being unlocked in customer cars.… pic.twitter.com/r1dYnFRa6o
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 28, 2025
Each new Tesla sold will also come with a 30-day free trial of the suite.
Australia is the sixth country to officially have Full Self-Driving available to them, following the United States, Canada, China, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.
Here’s the first look at the suite operating in Australia:
Elon Musk reveals when SpaceX will perform first-ever Starship catch
Tesla Robotaxi rival Waymo confirms massive fleet expansion in Bay Area
Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region
-
Elon Musk1 day agoSpaceX Starship Flight 10 was so successful, it’s breaking the anti-Musk narrative
-
News2 days agoTesla Semi earns strong reviews from veteran truckers
-
News2 days agoTesla China working overtime to deliver Model Y L as quickly as possible
-
News1 day agoTesla appears to have teased a long-awaited Model Y trim for a Friday launch
-
News4 days agoTesla makes big change to encourage Full Self-Driving purchases
-
News4 days agoTesla Model Y L sold out for September 2025
-
News16 hours agoTesla AI6 chips will start sample production at surprising Samsung site
-
Elon Musk2 days agoTesla reveals it has expanded its Robotaxi fleet in Austin