As we approach the end of Q4 and the end of the year, analysts are correctly pointing out that a successful quarter for Tesla hinges on a successful delivery of vehicles to Europe.
Tesla has had an incredibly successful 2022, especially considering the circumstances that have rocked the auto industry; the supply shortages, the COVID lockdowns in China, and even the invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, Tesla rebounded from a difficult second quarter and posted a record Q3. Analysts have high expectations for the year’s final quarter, and Tesla’s ability to achieve them hinges on European success.
Despite challenges earlier in the year, many experts expect Tesla to achieve its 50% growth target compared to last year, equating to roughly 1.4 million deliveries cumulatively in 2022. To achieve this goal, Tesla will need to deliver approximately 500,000 units in Q4, and many experts think the company can do it.
Hi everybody. Tesla’s guidance for this year is 50% growth in production and deliveries. To achieve that, they would need 1,404,333 deliveries in 2022 which means 495,760 in Q4. That’s not going to happen. However, they still have a shot at achieving 50% growth in production. pic.twitter.com/AOFwUEHtP5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 16, 2022
Analyst Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research comes to a similar conclusion.
Experts have good reason to believe Tesla can hit the half million vehicles mark for Q4. Foremost, demand for Tesla vehicles worldwide remains very high. Tesla China recently announced the astonishing achievement of selling over 100,000 vehicles in November. In the U.S., Tesla remains the top EV seller despite rising competition from legacy brands. And in Europe, the Tesla Model Y has become an overnight sensation, becoming a contender for the top-selling vehicle overall in multiple countries during Q4.
On the flip side, Tesla has been able to vastly expand production during the same timeframe. Notably, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin have been physically expanding, while Giga Texas and Giga Shanghai each hit notable production goals within Q4.
That leads us to the weakest link; Europe. Europe has the smallest source of domestic production as they rely solely on Tesla’s newest facility, Giga Berlin. At the same time, many of this year’s economic challenges have hit the old world particularly hard, including inflation, supply shortages, and the ongoing energy crisis.
So how is Tesla addressing this to meet its half-a-million vehicle goal? First, Tesla is employing its favorite trick of delivering as many vehicles as possible at the end of the quarter. One indicator of this push occurring is the large number of boats leaving from Shanghai and Texas towards Europe.
Because of the long transit times, that means in order to deliver all China exports in Europe by 31 Dec, the last ship needed to depart by 21 Nov. It did. This is how Tesla always used to do things. Therefore Dec deliveries in Europe will be again super high but then
2/5
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 4, 2022
According to data cumulated by TTF-Forum.de and initially posted by MaratimeTraffic, 15 ships have already delivered Teslas to Europe in Q4, and seven more ships from China and two from the U.S. are on their way.
But does this number of ships indicate that Tesla is on track to have a record quarter? That remains a little unclear. Cumulating data from a series of sources (TTF-Forum.de, TeslaCarriers, Tesla Ship Tracker, and MaratimeTraffic), this number of boats this quarter is a new high for Tesla but not entirely outside of the norm. In total, Tesla will be sending 22 ships to Europe this quarter, but this is only two more boats than the previous high of 20 that delivered vehicles to Europe in Q4 2021.
Another indicator that Tesla is putting the pedal to the metal in this final quarter is hiring. In a previous message from CEO Elon Musk (ironically advising against these end-of-the-quarter pushes), he notes that Tesla is forced to hire a large number of new employees and temp workers to keep up with demand during these times. Sometimes even calling on Tesla enthusiasts to help new customers take delivery of their vehicles. This is precisely what is being seen on Tesla’s hiring site now, as the company has hit a record number of openings in recent weeks.
Finally, Tesla is even employing discounts to entice buyers in the final month of the year. Tesla has issued discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and China already and could give a similar deal in Europe in the coming weeks.
While these three factors individually don’t necessarily indicate that Tesla is headed for a record Q4, they both positively display the company is headed in the right direction.
With such positive indicators, it is clear why experts have high expectations for Tesla. Demand remains high, supply has continued to grow, and indicators of a robust end-of-the-quarter push (increased number of ship deliveries to Europe, significant hiring, inventory discounts) are clearly visible. But to say that the achievement is “in the bag” would be short-sighted. Tesla still has a mountain to climb to achieve the monumental half a million vehicles sold in a single quarter. Even so, many remain optimistic for the end of this year.
What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!
Elon Musk
Tesla says texting and driving capability is coming ‘in a month or two’
“In the next month or two, we’re going to look at the safety statistics, but we’re going to allow you to text and drive, essentially.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that within the next month or two, the company will be able to open the ability for people to text and drive because its Full Self-Driving suite will be robust enough to allow drivers to take their attention away from the road.
In its current state, Tesla Full Self-Driving is a supervised driver assistance suite that requires the vehicle operator to maintain control of the vehicle and pay attention to the road surroundings.
However, the company has been aiming to release a fully autonomous version of the Full Self-Driving suite for years, teasing its future potential and aiming to release a Level 5 suite as soon as possible.
CEO Elon Musk believes the company is on the cusp of something drastic, according to what he said at yesterday’s Annual Shareholder Meeting.
One thing Musk hinted at was that the company should be able to allow those sitting in the driver’s seat of their cars to text and drive “in the next month or two,” as long as the statistics look good.
He said:
“In the next month or two, we’re going to look at the safety statistics, but we’re going to allow you to text and drive, essentially.”
The company recently transitioned to its v14 Full Self-Driving suite, which is its most robust to date, and recently expanded to Cybertruck, completing its rollout across the vehicle lineup.
Currently, Tesla is running v14.1.5, and when major improvements are made, that second number will increase, meaning v14.2 will be the next substantial improvement.
Musk said that v14.3 will be when you can “pretty much fall asleep and wake up at your destination.”
🚨🚨 Elon Musk says Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.3 will be when you can “pretty much fall asleep and wake up at your destination.”
We are on v14.1 currently 👀 pic.twitter.com/KMkWh5Qa7T
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 6, 2025
We’ve heard a considerable amount of similar statements in the past, and Tesla owners have been conditioned to take some of these timeframes with autonomous driving with a grain of salt.
However, with the upgrades in FSD over the past few months, especially with the rollout of Robotaxi in Austin, which does not utilize anyone in the driver’s seat for local roads, it does not seem as if autonomy is that far off for Tesla.
News
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
The Semi has been one of the most anticipated products in the Tesla lineup due to the disruption it could cause in the trucking industry.
Tesla put its all-electric Semi truck through quite a major redesign as its dedicated factory for the vehicle is preparing for initial deliveries to the public starting next year.
The Semi has been one of the most anticipated products in the Tesla lineup due to the disruption it could cause in the trucking industry.
It has already been in numerous pilot programs for some pretty large companies over the past couple of years, PepsiCo. being one of them, and it is moving toward first deliveries to other companies sometime in 2026.
Yesterday at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Tesla unveiled its new Semi design, which underwent a pretty significant facelift to match the aesthetic and vibe of the other vehicles in the company’s lineup.
Additionally, Tesla announced some other improvements, including changes to efficiency, and some other changes that we did not get details on yet.
The first change was to the design of the Semi, as Tesla adopted its blade-like light bar for the Class 8 truck, similar to the one that is used on the new Model Y and the Cybertruck:
There also appear to be a handful of design changes that help with aerodynamics, as its efficiency has increased to 1.7 kWh per mile.
Tesla also said it has an increased payload capability, which will help companies to haul more goods per trip.
All of these changes come as the company’s Semi Factory, which is located on the same property as its Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada, is just finishing up. In late October, it was shown that the Semi facility is nearly complete, based on recent drone imagery from factory observer HinrichsZane on X:
The factory will be capable of producing about 50,000 Tesla Semi units annually when it is completely ramped. The company has major plans to help get the Semi in more fleets across the United States.
Other entities are also working to develop a charging corridor for electric Class 8 trucks. The State of California was awarded $102 million to develop a charging corridor that spans from Washington to Southern California.
Another corridor is being developed that spans from Southern California to Texas, and 49 applicants won $636 million from the Department of Transportation for it.
Tesla requested funding for it, but was denied.
The Semi has been a staple in several companies’ fleets over the past few years, most notably that of Frito-Lay and PepsiCo., who have reported positive experiences thus far.
Musk said last year that the Semi had “ridiculous demand.”
News
Tesla Cybercab production starts Q2 2026, Elon Musk confirms
Elon Musk highlighted that the fully autonomous vehicle will be the first Tesla designed specifically for unsupervised self-driving.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that production of the company’s autonomous Cybercab will begin in April 2026, and its production targets will be quite ambitious.
Speaking at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, Musk highlighted that the fully autonomous vehicle will be the first Tesla designed specifically for unsupervised self-driving.
A robotaxi built for an autonomous world
Musk described the Cybercab as a clean-slate design optimized for autonomy, with no steering wheel, pedals, or side mirrors. “It’s very much optimized for the lowest cost per mile in an autonomous mode,” Musk said, adding that every Tesla produced in recent years already carries the hardware needed for full self-driving.
The Cybercab will be assembled at Giga Texas and will serve as the company’s flagship entry into the commercial robotaxi market. Musk emphasized that the project represents Tesla’s next evolutionary step in combining vehicle manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and mobility services.
One Cybercab every ten seconds
Musk reiterated that the Cybercab’s production process is more closely modeled on consumer electronics assembly than on traditional automotive manufacturing. This should pave the way for outputs that far exceed conventional automotive products.
“That production is happening right here in this factory, and we’ll be starting production in April next year. The manufacturing system is unlike any other car. The manufacturing system of the Cybercab, it’s closer to a high volume consumer electronics device than it is a car manufacturing line. So the net result is that I think we should be able to achieve, I think, ultimately, less than a 10-second cycle time, basically a unit every 10 seconds.
“What that would mean is you could get on a line that would normally produce, say, 500,000 cars a year at a one minute cycle time, Model Y. This would be maybe as much as 2 million or 3 million, maybe ultimately it’s theoretically possible to achieve a 5 million unit production line if you can get to the 5-second cycle time,” the CEO said.
Tesla says texting and driving capability is coming ‘in a month or two’
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
Tesla Cybercab production starts Q2 2026, Elon Musk confirms
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