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Tesla’s ‘Roadrunner’ facility gets a neighbor working on tech beyond the million-mile battery
As the wait for Tesla’s Battery Day continues, more and more speculations are abounding about what the electric car maker might reveal during the highly-anticipated event. Elon Musk has stated that Battery Day’s announcements will be mind-blowing, and based on apparent clues recently observed by the Tesla community, it appears that the CEO may be right on the money.
Recent reports have indicated that Amprius, a battery company currently working on silicon nanowire tech, recently relocated its headquarters to a site that’s just a few hundred feet away from Tesla’s Roadrunner battery facility in Kato Road, Fremont. Considering the firm’s focus, its new headquarters’ rather convenient location, and Elon Musk’s previous references to the use of silicon in batteries, there seems to be a fair chance that Amprius’ move to Fremont may be more than a coincidence.
Amprius notes that it is working on creating silicon nanowires for battery anodes that dramatically improve battery weight and density. The company’s website notes that silicon generally has about 10x the capacity of graphite (carbon), but it has a big drawback in the way that it swells when it’s charged, causing the silicon to fracture. To address this, Amprius utilizes silicon nanowires, which keeps the silicon from fracturing and breaking apart even when it swells.
As noted by EV enthusiast and YouTube host Driving Delta, Elon Musk himself appears to be teasing the use of advanced silicon tech on Twitter last month. In one of his posts, Musk shared some lyrics of the song “Lithium” by Nirvana, whose refrain includes sections that state “I’m not gonna crack.” Granted, Musk may simply be trolling the Tesla community with his posts, but it should be noted that he also talked about the increasing use of silicon anodes five years ago.
“We’re shifting the cell chemistry for the upgrade battery pack to partially use silicon in the anode. This is just a sort of baby step in the direction of using silicon in the anode. We’re still primarily using synthetic graphite, but over time, we’ll be using increasing amounts of silicon in the anode,” Musk noted during a 2015 conference call.
As noted by Amprius’ on its website, the use of 100% silicon paves the way for batteries with the highest energy density, perhaps even at the 500 Wh/kg level. That’s enough to start exploring electric VTOL projects, a topic that Elon Musk has admitted is something that truly interests him. That being said, Professor in Energy Materials and Technologies Ying Shirley Meng, who has made significant contributions to Maxwell Technologies’ battery tech herself, believes that challenges still remain in the use of silicon nanowires.
“We should pay attention to the cost per kg. Even (if) those nanowires work (which I doubt), to produce consistent quality in metric ton scale at 10$ per kg it will be sci-fi for now,” she noted.
Elon Musk, for his part, recently stated that the technology that could allow 400 Wh/kg with a high life cycle and volume production is not too far away. Musk gave a rough timeframe for the technology, stating that such milestones could be achieved in about three to four years.
Tesla’s Battery Day event is expected to introduce the company’s next-generation lithium-ion cells, though speculations suggest that these batteries — which are expected to last a million miles — are based largely on Maxwell Technologies’ dry electrode tech. Maxwell itself has previously noted that it could offer batteries with 300 Wh/kg while stating that it had also identified a path to 500 Wh/kg. With this in mind, it appears that Tesla may already be setting the stage for cells that will likely go even beyond the million-mile battery.
Granted, Amprius’ move to Fremont may be unconnected to Tesla. That being said, the two companies’ goals to align with each other, and Elon Musk’s own references to the use of silicon suggests that Tesla will likely get a lot of value from Amprius’ tech. If speculations prove true, the path to batteries that go even further than the million-mile mark may be feasible in the near future. Such innovations are key to Tesla’s goal of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, after all.
Watch these recent takes on the Amprius rumors in the videos below.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
