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Tesla Semi truck production would showcase lessons gained from Model 3
Being the electric car maker’s first entry into the trucking industry, the stakes are high for the Tesla Semi. Just like the Model 3, Tesla could revolutionize the trucking industry if the Semi proves to be a success. The company is aiming to start production of the Semi sometime in 2019 — a target that exhibits Elon Musk’s tendency to adopt aggressive manufacturing timelines. That said, if Tesla’s progress in the Model 3 ramp is any indication, there is a good chance that the Semi could be Tesla’s first vehicle to not run into major problems when it starts production.
Tesla is no stranger to missed production deadlines. In 2007, Tesla announced that it has plans to build 10,000 of the then-mythical Model S sedan annually starting in 2009. Production was ultimately delayed, and the vehicle was introduced in June 2012. The Model X experienced an even more significant delay, with deliveries starting on September 2015 instead of its initially planned early 2014 release. Tesla’s latest vehicle, the Model 3, has experienced delays as well — an ordeal that CEO Elon Musk aptly dubbed as “production hell.” When the handover of the first 30 Model 3 was held last year, Musk announced that Tesla is aiming to produce 5,000 units of the electric sedan a week by the end of 2017. Tesla was only able to hit that target at the end of Q2 2018.
Considering Tesla’s history and reputation for delays, does this mean that the Semi would follow the same fate? Most likely not. On the contrary, the Semi might very well be the first Tesla vehicle that would not experience a delay as bad as its predecessors. Tesla might miss its 2019 target for the truck given that the timeline was announced by a very optimistic Elon Musk, but once manufacturing begins, there is a good possibility that the Semi would not take the company to “production hell” like the Model 3.
When Elon Musk unveiled the Semi last November, he pitched the vehicle as an electric truck that can disrupt the trucking industry. With stunning performance specs such as a 0-60 mph time in 5 seconds flat, a capability to haul 80,000 lbs of cargo, and a range of 500 miles per charge for the Long Range version, the Semi is a serious long-hauler. These impressive specs aside, one thing that made the Semi quite remarkable was the fact that it shared components with the Model 3, from its four electric motors to the two touchscreens on the driver’s console. A video of the Semi shared earlier this year on YouTube even showcased how the truck features an air vent similar to the Model 3.
Tesla is not done with the Semi either. As testing of the vehicle continues, Tesla is rolling out improvements to the truck’s design. Back in May, Elon Musk stated that the Semi’s range would be closer to 600 miles per charge. During the Q2 earnings call, Elon Musk also teased a new battery module “that’s actually lighter, better, (and) cheaper.” These new modules are expected to start production sometime in Q1 2019, which could result in vehicles being lighter and having more range — advantages that are pertinent for the electric long-hauler.
Tesla’s production ramp for the Model 3 proved to be a classic tale of trial and error, with a dash of automation-driven hubris thrown in. Over the past year, the company learned a lot of lessons as it evolved from an upstart automaker into a more mature car company. When Tesla starts the Semi’s production, there’s a good chance that it would no longer be a company that adopts unrealistic release timelines. Instead, it would be an automaker that has gained experience over years of missed deadlines. The fact that the Semi shares components with the electric sedan would be a given plus, but the real boost in the manufacturing of the electric truck would likely be caused the expertise that Tesla gained when it tackled the challenge of the Model 3 ramp.
The market for the Tesla Semi is vast, and so far, reactions from the market are encouraging. During the company’s Q1 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel noted that Tesla has around 2,000 reservations for the vehicle. Tesla has also acquired orders from companies such as PepsiCo, FedEx, and UPS in the United States and Bee’ah from the United Arab Emirates, to name a few.
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Tesla (TSLA) receives “Buy” rating and $551 PT from Canaccord Genuity
He also maintained a “Buy” rating for TSLA stock over the company’s improving long-term outlook, which is driven by autonomy and robotics.
Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas raised his Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target from $482 to $551. He also maintained a “Buy” rating for TSLA stock over the company’s improving long-term outlook, which is driven by autonomy and robotics.
The analyst’s updated note
Gianarikas lowered his 4Q25 delivery estimates but pointed to several positive factors in the Tesla story. He noted that EV adoption in emerging markets is gaining pace, and progress in FSD and the Robotaxi rollout in 2026 represent major upside drivers. Further progress in the Optimus program next year could also add more momentum for the electric vehicle maker.
“Overall, yes, 4Q25 delivery expectations are being revised lower. However, the reset in the US EV market is laying the groundwork for a more durable and attractive long-term demand environment.
“At the same time, EV penetration in emerging markets is accelerating, reinforcing Tesla’s potential multi‑year growth runway beyond the US. Global progress in FSD and the anticipated rollout of a larger robotaxi fleet in 2026 are increasingly important components of the Tesla equity story and could provide sentiment tailwinds,” the analyst wrote.
Tesla’s busy 2026
The upcoming year would be a busy one for Tesla, considering the company’s plans and targets. The autonomous two-seat Cybercab has been confirmed to start production sometime in Q2 2026, as per Elon Musk during the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Apart from this, Tesla is also expected to unveil the next-generation Roadster on April 1, 2026. Tesla is also expected to start high-volume production of the Tesla Semi in Nevada next year.
Apart from vehicle launches, Tesla has expressed its intentions to significantly ramp the rollout of FSD to several regions worldwide, such as Europe. Plans are also underway to launch more Robotaxi networks in several more key areas across the United States.
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Waymo sues Santa Monica over order to halt overnight charging sessions
In its complaint, Waymo argued that its self-driving cars’ operations do not constitute a public nuisance, and compliance with the city’s order would cause the company irreparable harm.
Waymo has filed a lawsuit against the City of Santa Monica in Los Angeles County Superior Court, seeking to block an order that requires the company to cease overnight charging at two facilities.
In its complaint, Waymo argued that its self-driving cars’ operations do not constitute a public nuisance, and compliance with the city’s order would cause the company irreparable harm.
Nuisance claims
As noted in a report from the Los Angeles Times, Waymo’s two charging sites at Euclid Street and Broadway have operated for about a year, supporting the company’s growing fleet with round-the-clock activity. Unfortunately, this has also resulted in residents in the area reportedly being unable to sleep due to incessant beeping from self-driving taxis that are moving in and out of the charging stations around the clock.
Frustrated residents have protested against the Waymos by blocking the vehicles’ paths, placing cones, and “stacking” cars to create backups. This has also resulted in multiple calls to the police.
Last month, the city issued an order to Waymo and its charging partner, Voltera, to cease overnight operations at the charging locations, stating that the self-driving vehicles’ activities at night were a public nuisance. A December 15 meeting yielded no agreement on mitigations like software rerouting. Waymo proposed changes, but the city reportedly insisted that nothing would satisfy the irate residents.
“We are disappointed that the City has chosen an adversarial path over a collaborative one. The City’s position has been to insist that no actions taken or proposed by Waymo would satisfy the complaining neighbors and therefore must be deemed insufficient,” a Waymo spokesperson stated.
Waymo pushes back
In its legal complaint, Waymo stated that its “activities at the Broadway Facilities do not constitute a public nuisance.” The company also noted that it “faces imminent and irreparable harm to its operations, employees, and customers” from the city’s order. The suit also stated that the city was fully aware that the Voltera charging sites would be operating around the clock to support Waymo’s self-driving taxis.
The company highlighted over one million trips in Santa Monica since launch, with more than 50,000 rides starting or ending there in November alone. Waymo also criticized the city for adopting a contentious strategy against businesses.
“The City of Santa Monica’s recent actions are inconsistent with its stated goal of attracting investment. At a time when the City faces a serious fiscal crisis, officials are choosing to obstruct properly permitted investment rather than fostering a ‘ready for business’ environment,” Waymo stated.
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Tesla FSD v14.2.2 is getting rave reviews from drivers
So far, early testers have reported buttery-smooth drives with confident performance, even at night or on twisty roads.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2.2 is receiving positive reviews from owners, with several drivers praising the build’s lack of hesitation during lane changes and its smoother decision-making, among others.
The update, which started rolling out on Monday, also adds features like dynamic arrival pin adjustment. So far, early testers have reported buttery-smooth drives with confident performance, even at night or on twisty roads.
Owners highlight major improvements
Longtime Tesla owner and FSD user @BLKMDL3 shared a detailed 10-hour impression of FSD v14.2.2, noting that the system exhibited “zero lane change hesitation” and “extremely refined” lane choices. He praised Mad Max mode’s performance, stellar parking in locations including ticket dispensers, and impressive canyon runs even in dark conditions.
Fellow FSD user Dan Burkland reported an hour of FSD v14.2.2’s nighttime driving with “zero hesitations” and “buttery smooth” confidence reminiscent of Robotaxi rides in areas such as Austin, Texas. Veteran FSD user Whole Mars Catalog also demonstrated voice navigation via Grok, while Tesla owner Devin Olsen completed a nearly two-hour drive with FSD v14.2.2 in heavy traffic and rain with strong performance.
Closer to unsupervised
FSD has been receiving rave reviews, even from Tesla’s competitors. Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng, for one, offered fresh praise for FSD v14.2 after visiting Silicon Valley. Following extended test drives of Tesla vehicles running the latest FSD software, He stated that the system has made major strides, reinforcing his view that Tesla’s approach to autonomy is indeed the proper path towards autonomy.
According to He, Tesla’s FSD has evolved from a smooth Level 2 advanced driver assistance system into what he described as a “near-Level 4” experience in terms of capabilities. While acknowledging that areas of improvement are still present, the Xpeng CEO stated that FSD’s current iteration significantly surpasses last year’s capabilities. He also reiterated his belief that Tesla’s strategy of using the same autonomous software and hardware architecture across private vehicles and robotaxis is the right long-term approach, as it would allow users to bypass intermediate autonomy stages and move closer to Level 4 functionality.
Tesla (TSLA) receives “Buy” rating and $551 PT from Canaccord Genuity
Waymo sues Santa Monica over order to halt overnight charging sessions
