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Tesla Semi truck production would showcase lessons gained from Model 3
Being the electric car maker’s first entry into the trucking industry, the stakes are high for the Tesla Semi. Just like the Model 3, Tesla could revolutionize the trucking industry if the Semi proves to be a success. The company is aiming to start production of the Semi sometime in 2019 — a target that exhibits Elon Musk’s tendency to adopt aggressive manufacturing timelines. That said, if Tesla’s progress in the Model 3 ramp is any indication, there is a good chance that the Semi could be Tesla’s first vehicle to not run into major problems when it starts production.
Tesla is no stranger to missed production deadlines. In 2007, Tesla announced that it has plans to build 10,000 of the then-mythical Model S sedan annually starting in 2009. Production was ultimately delayed, and the vehicle was introduced in June 2012. The Model X experienced an even more significant delay, with deliveries starting on September 2015 instead of its initially planned early 2014 release. Tesla’s latest vehicle, the Model 3, has experienced delays as well — an ordeal that CEO Elon Musk aptly dubbed as “production hell.” When the handover of the first 30 Model 3 was held last year, Musk announced that Tesla is aiming to produce 5,000 units of the electric sedan a week by the end of 2017. Tesla was only able to hit that target at the end of Q2 2018.
Considering Tesla’s history and reputation for delays, does this mean that the Semi would follow the same fate? Most likely not. On the contrary, the Semi might very well be the first Tesla vehicle that would not experience a delay as bad as its predecessors. Tesla might miss its 2019 target for the truck given that the timeline was announced by a very optimistic Elon Musk, but once manufacturing begins, there is a good possibility that the Semi would not take the company to “production hell” like the Model 3.
When Elon Musk unveiled the Semi last November, he pitched the vehicle as an electric truck that can disrupt the trucking industry. With stunning performance specs such as a 0-60 mph time in 5 seconds flat, a capability to haul 80,000 lbs of cargo, and a range of 500 miles per charge for the Long Range version, the Semi is a serious long-hauler. These impressive specs aside, one thing that made the Semi quite remarkable was the fact that it shared components with the Model 3, from its four electric motors to the two touchscreens on the driver’s console. A video of the Semi shared earlier this year on YouTube even showcased how the truck features an air vent similar to the Model 3.
Tesla is not done with the Semi either. As testing of the vehicle continues, Tesla is rolling out improvements to the truck’s design. Back in May, Elon Musk stated that the Semi’s range would be closer to 600 miles per charge. During the Q2 earnings call, Elon Musk also teased a new battery module “that’s actually lighter, better, (and) cheaper.” These new modules are expected to start production sometime in Q1 2019, which could result in vehicles being lighter and having more range — advantages that are pertinent for the electric long-hauler.
Tesla’s production ramp for the Model 3 proved to be a classic tale of trial and error, with a dash of automation-driven hubris thrown in. Over the past year, the company learned a lot of lessons as it evolved from an upstart automaker into a more mature car company. When Tesla starts the Semi’s production, there’s a good chance that it would no longer be a company that adopts unrealistic release timelines. Instead, it would be an automaker that has gained experience over years of missed deadlines. The fact that the Semi shares components with the electric sedan would be a given plus, but the real boost in the manufacturing of the electric truck would likely be caused the expertise that Tesla gained when it tackled the challenge of the Model 3 ramp.
The market for the Tesla Semi is vast, and so far, reactions from the market are encouraging. During the company’s Q1 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel noted that Tesla has around 2,000 reservations for the vehicle. Tesla has also acquired orders from companies such as PepsiCo, FedEx, and UPS in the United States and Bee’ah from the United Arab Emirates, to name a few.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla has expanded the footprint of a massive safety feature worldwide with a recent Software Update labeled as 2026.20.6. The expansion of the “Blind Spot Warning While Parked” feature represents the more widespread availability of the feature, which aims to prevent “dooring.”
Dooring is when a driver or passenger opens a car door into the path of an oncoming road user, usually a cyclist or motorcyclist. It is among the most common types of cycling accidents, the League of American Bicyclists says.
For this reason, Tesla created a feature that warns occupants not to open the door because an object is approaching. The feature will sound a chime, and it will also delay the opening of the door to prevent an incident.
The release notes state (via Not a Tesla App):
“If you attempt to open a door while an approaching object is detected in your blind spot (for example, a bicyclist approaching from behind) a chime sounds, and your door will not open upon initial button press. Wait a short time and press the button a second time to override the warning.”
Tesla initially rolled out this feature back in 2024 with the Model 3 “Highland.” However, it remained with the Model 3 exclusively for over a year; that was until Tesla added it to the Cybertruck this past Spring.
Now, it is making its way to the new Model Y, 2021 and newer Model S, and 2021 or newer Model X.
The prevention of dooring incidents could eliminate many injuries to cyclists, especially in an urban setting. Dooring accounts for 10-20 percent of bike-related crashes in major cities, and over 17,000 dooring-related incidents were treated in the U.S. over the course of a decade. These usually involve fractures, contusions, and head trauma.
Tesla confirmed this morning that it has sent the first production units, manufactured with no steering wheel or pedals, to on-road testing in Austin, sharing video of the first rides with no human controls.
The lack of steering wheels and pedals in the Cybercab aligns with Tesla’s self-certification of Robotaxi as Level 4 SAE, a platform it plans to make widespread through internal vehicles and customer-owned cars that will operate and generate revenue for individuals.
The start of these engineering tests is a major signal for Tesla, which plans to bring driverless, wheel-less, and pedal-less Cybercabs to market in the coming months. With production already well underway at Gigafactory Texas, where the Cybercab is built, there is some inclination to believe the first public rides could happen sooner rather than later.
Engineering tests of the first production Cybercab have begun in Austin pic.twitter.com/fk3KQvcE8a
— Tesla (@Tesla) June 30, 2026
Tesla’s engineering tests will put the Cybercab in real-world scenarios, testing not only the hardware, but more importantly, the software that drives the car around Austin with nobody supervising it within the car.
This is perhaps the biggest part of the internal testing process, especially prior to allowing regular, everyday people to hail the Cybercab for an autonomous ride. These early rides serve as a true benchmark for Tesla: How many rides can it achieve safely? How many miles did it travel consecutively without needing an intervention? What scenarios challenge the Full Self-Driving suite the most?
The proper precautions have already been put into place as well, as Tesla released the First Responders Guide to Cybercab over the weekend, ensuring that emergency services have 24/7 access to Robotaxi Assistance, as well as other boundaries, such as Geofencing features that can be used to redirect autonomous vehicle traffic due to accidents, road closures, construction, or maintenance.
Cybercab seems genuinely close to being added to the Robotaxi fleet in Austin, but Tesla has prioritized safety throughout this entire process. Therefore, we think it could be months before it truly starts giving rides to the public. People have been frustrated with this, but Robotaxi in Austin has a tremendous safety record so far, so the slow rollout has kept people safe and accidents to a minimum.
The most important thing is that Tesla continues to show consistent progress in the Cybercab’s ramp-up toward fleet addition. A few weeks back, we saw the EPA reward the Cybercab a Certificate of Conformity, allowing it to enter the stream of commerce. Then, we saw Tesla add decals, signaling that it was likely about to start testing it publicly. That has now happened.
The next big move will be the announcement of the first rides, so this Summer should be filled with anticipation.
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Tesla expands massive safety feature worldwide in latest update
