Investor's Corner
Tesla stock outlook soars to $1,300 per share, driven by Biden’s $10k EV tax credit
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price soared during Monday trading following the report of impressive Q1 2021 delivery and production numbers last Friday. Bullish analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush, who boosted his outlook on Tesla stock to “Outperform” from a “Hold” rating following the Q1 figures, believes that the stock could cross the $1,300 mark in the coming months, especially if Presiden Joe Biden’s planned EV tax credit is pushed through. Wedbush sources indicate that the previously thought $7,000 credit could be increased to $10,000, further incentivizing car buyers to purchase electric powertrains instead of gas-powered ones.
Ives is coming off of a Monday price target increase to $1,000 with a bullish scenario of $1,300, and his bull case is not necessarily influenced directly by Tesla’s increased sales and delivery figures that were solely fueled by the demand for the Model 3 and Model Y. Instead, President Joe Biden’s EV tax credit, a long-awaited returning incentive for many EV enthusiasts, is about to be reintroduced. Several sources in Washington D.C. who have spoken to Ives or Wedbush indicate that it could be a sum of $10,000 instead of the $7,500, or $7,000, that has been discussed for several months.
“We are hearing from our contacts in the Beltway that $7,500 tax credit could potentially be $10,000 in terms of a credit and that’s going to be a massive catalyst not just for Tesla, but for the EV ecosystem in the U.S.,” Ives said to Yahoo! Finance Live. The current EV tax credit amounts to $7,500 but could be reintroduced to apply to the automakers who have sold at least 200,000 battery-powered cars. Tesla and General Motors have both surpassed this threshold, effectively disqualifying them from giving their consumers the credit.
The plan bodes well for many EV manufacturers, not just those who have rolled out 200,000 or more deliveries. President Biden has been vocal about the possibility of introducing several bills and spending plans that would accelerate the production of electric vehicles and enhance the incentives that encourage consumers to purchase them. Last week, Biden announced a $174 billion aid package that would assist the growth of EV companies. The aid package’s main point would be to help the U.S. EV market accelerate to grow to the size of the highly competitive Chinese EV market, a region that Tesla has found immense amounts of success in.
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“The president believes that [the U.S. EV market’s size compared to the Chinese EV market] must change. He is proposing a $174 billion investment to win the EV market,” the White House said in a statement.
Whether the EV tax credit is increased to $10,000 remains to be seen, and ultimately it will come down to the Biden Administration’s ultimate discretion. Rest assured, Ives believes an increased EV tax benefit will pay dividends for Tesla if it goes through. “Although there has been a painful sell-off for Tesla [stock this year], I think this is just the start of a massive rally of 30% to 40%,” Ives added.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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