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Tesla stock (TSLA) splits Wall St. as analysts weigh in on Model 3 sustainability

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been characteristically volatile, to the point where CEO Elon Musk boldly declared during the company’s Q1 2018 earnings call that people who fear volatility should not invest in the company. With Tesla recently announcing the date of its Q2 2018 financial results and earnings call, the electric car maker is once more dividing Wall Street down the middle, with bulls and bears both reiterating their stance on the company’s performance.

Mott Capital Management LLC founder Michael Kramer recently noted that Tesla’s investors should prepare themselves for a wild ride, as his firm expects the company’s shares to rise or fall by as much as 17% over the next two months. According to Kramer, Tesla stock would likely trade anywhere between $265 to $375 over the next ~65 days. The Mott Capital founder also estimates that Tesla’s September options would likely see a lot of implied volatility on September, at roughly 50% — almost five times greater than the S&P 500’s implied volatility of 10%.

A key factor that would determine Tesla’s performance in the stock market for the next few months would be the Model 3 — a vehicle that Elon Musk aptly dubbed as a “bet-the-company” project. With Tesla attaining its Q2 2018 production target of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week by the end of June, the electric car maker appears to be suggesting that its self-imposed “production hell” is about to end.

In a recent note, Argus Research analyst Bill Selesky backed the firm’s Buy rating for Tesla, placing a price target of $444 (a +36% upside potential) for the company’s stock. According to Selesky, Argus’ positive stance stands on an optimistic outlook for revenue gains from the Model S and X, as well as strong demand for the Model 3 sedan. The analyst further noted that while Tesla’s production figures for the Model 3 during the first quarter fell below its expectations, Argus believes that the company would show an improvement in the second quarter. Finally, Selesky stated that Model 3 production costs would likely diminish next year, enabling Tesla to achieve a healthy gross margin for the vehicle in late 2019.

“Although first quarter production of the Model 3 fell short of our forecast and management’s guidance, the company recently reached its 5,000 per week production target. As such, we expect significant sequential improvement in the second quarter. We expect the company to achieve its target gross margin of 25% on the Model 3 in late 2019, in line with the margins already achieved on the Model S and Model X,” Selesky wrote.

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Needham & Co’s Rajvindra Gill, however, released a note downgrading Tesla to a Sell, citing an uptick in cancellations for Model 3 orders. According to the analyst, Needham’s estimates suggest that Tesla’s refund rate for the Model 3 has outpaced deposits for the electric car.  

“Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate. The reasons are varied: extended wait times, the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model. In August ’17, TSLA cited a refund rate of 12%. Almost a year later, we believe it has doubled and outpaced deposits. Model 3 wait times are currently 4-12 months, and with base model not available until mid-2019, consumers could wait until 2020,” the analyst wrote.

Since the beginning of July, Tesla appears to have gone all-in on the Model 3, pushing the vehicle to buyers through test drive programs and initiatives such as a 5-minute Sign & Drive delivery system. Signs over the past weeks also indicate that Tesla is all but accelerating its Model 3 push for the third quarter, with more than 19,000 new VINs filed so far in July, and a 19% increase in hiring activity since the month started. A vote of confidence for the company’s profitability also came recently from Detroit, after teardown specialist Sandy Munro stated that the Model 3’s Long Range RWD variant could give Tesla a 36% profit. Munro also estimates that the $35,000 base Model 3 could still give the electric car maker a profit of 18%.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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‘You chose ambition’: Tesla Chair hails shareholders for backing Elon Musk’s vision

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm has issued a letter to shareholders celebrating what she described as “overwhelming support” at this year’s Annual Meeting, framing the approval of Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar pay plan as a defining moment in Tesla’s mission. 

Denholm stated that the vote highlighted TSLA investors’ continued confidence in both Musk’s leadership and Tesla’s vision for an autonomous, AI-driven future.

Denholm hails shareholder confidence

In her letter, which was posted by the electric vehicle maker on X through Tesla’s official handle, Denholm thanked investors for backing Proposals One, Three, and Four, items she said reaffirm Tesla’s “Master Plan Part IV” and its broader mission to accelerate sustainable prosperity. She characterized the shareholder vote as “a vote of confidence in our visionary leader, Elon,” crediting Musk with transforming Tesla into one of the most valuable companies in history.

“In a year when many tried to sow doubt and negativity, you chose a better future,” Denholm wrote. “You chose ambition. You chose to see what is possible. You chose to back the people who have been in the room since the earliest days, fighting for the mission that first brought us all together—a better world for humanity,” she wrote in her letter. 

Her comments framed Musk’s pay package approval not only as a governance milestone but as a symbolic endorsement of Tesla’s long-term trajectory across autonomy, AI, and energy innovation.

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“A whole new book” of innovation

Denholm highlighted Tesla’s push toward autonomy as the company’s next major growth phase, citing the Robotaxi program and Optimus humanoid robot as examples of bringing artificial intelligence “into the physical world.” She described this period as potentially “the largest value-creation event in Tesla’s history, and quite possibly in the history of humanity.”

The letter reaffirmed the board’s commitment to direct engagement with shareholders through Tesla’s online platform and live events. Denholm emphasized that feedback from investors “informs our strategy and strengthens us” as Tesla prepares for new technology rollouts and expanded AI capabilities.

“You, our shareholders, have given us the mandate and the runway to execute. We are humbled, and rest assured that we do not take that responsibility lightly… Thank you for believing in Tesla. Thank you for standing with us. We look forward to years of bold leadership and pioneering innovation, fueled by our commitment to creating a better future for all,” she wrote.

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Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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