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Tesla supplier CATL sees massive income increase supported by EV market domination

Credit: CATL

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Chinese battery maker and Tesla supplier CATL reported its earnings for 2022 today and showed a massive increase in overall income from the year prior, and it was supported largely by its domination in supplying EV makers with cells.

CATL reported a net income growth of 92.9 percent from the year prior, seeing 30.72 billion yuan or $4,412,841,984. Analysts expected just 28.8 billion yuan of income, according to Bloomberg data. The income was in line with the company’s preliminary guidance of between 29.1 billion and 31.5 billion yuan.

Revenue also saw a sizeable increase of 152 percent, reporting 328.6 billion yuan, or $47,201,779,860. Revenue increases were led by the company’s core power battery business, which generated margins of 17.2 percent.

CATL has been one of Tesla’s leading suppliers for several years and has expanded into other partnerships with companies like Ford. As of 2022, CATL said it controlled more than one-third of the total battery market globally, 37 percent, to be precise.

It also commanded total GWh installations last year, dominating competitors like LG Energy, BYD, and Panasonic, who only delivered a fraction of the total installations that CATL did in 2022.

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CATL installed 191.6 GWh of battery capacity last year, while LG Energy and BYD, the second and third-place companies in terms of total market share, both installed 70.4 GWh.

Despite its strong earnings and global domination in terms of battery market share, CATL still has rough waters to navigate in its home country. In China, EV sales growth stagnated slightly in Q4 due to COVID-19 shutdowns and a new wave of infections that occurred.

Tesla then cut output at Gigafactory Shanghai in late December, but the reasoning for the stoppage was unclear until the automaker stated that it was scheduling routine maintenance on production lines during this time.

Tesla China addresses Giga Shanghai’s reported production shutdown

“The Shanghai plant will still maintain efficient production and excellent output in 2022. Vehicle production will be carried out as planned for the annual production line maintenance,” Tesla China said in a statement. “At the same time, after a year of hard work, the workers also took a break during the maintenance period of the production line. The charging piles and other workshops have not stopped, and the media’s statement that the factory has stopped production is not entirely accurate.”

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Tesla did report a sizeable dip in December of 44 percent compared to November. It then recovered in January after the automaker cut prices on vehicles built in Shanghai, reporting 66,041 units were sold during the first month of the year.

Interestingly, CATL’s output has not seemed to not fully recover as of yet, and Reuters reported last month that the battery maker began offering discounts to clients in an attempt to win more orders and expand sales and output.

CATL is positioned to perform well in the market regardless of some slowing demand for its batteries simply due to its control of such a large slice of the battery market. It is continuing to expand into other markets as well, including Hungary.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is a Tesla Shareholder, he is not a CATL investor.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s comfort level taking risks makes the stock a ‘must own,’ firm says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

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