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Tesla tops list of predicted lifetime ‘recalls’: iSeeCars

Credit: Tesla

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Update: 4/18 5:26 pm EST – Reworded headline for improved accuracy.

New data based on recalls from the NHTSA found that Tesla vehicles are by far the most likely to be “recalled” over a projected 30-year vehicle lifespan.

The term “recall” has become quite contentious over the past two years as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has hammered Tesla with recall after recall, many of which are fixed by over-the-air updates. Nonetheless, the government agency has yet to change its terminology, and new data from iSeeCars has found that Tesla vehicles are significantly more likely to be recalled over their lifetime than essentially any others.

iSeeCars compiled its list of the top 25 most and least recalled vehicles by analyzing ten years of recalls issued by the NHTSA and projecting that number over a 30-year lifespan, concluding that Tesla took all but one of the top five spots. The top ten most recalled vehicles over their lifetimes are as follows:

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Rank

Model

Expected 30-yr lifetime Recalls

Compared to the Overall Average

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1

Tesla Model Y

62.4

15.60x

2

Porsche Panamera

61.8

15.45x

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3

Tesla Model 3

56.8

14.2x

4

Tesla Model X

27.3

6.83x

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5

Tesla Model S

26.4

6.60x

6

Lincoln Aviator

23.0

5.75x

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7

Volkswagen Atlas Cross Sport

22.4

5.60x

8

Volkswagen Atlas

20.8

5.20x

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9

Ram 1500

20.5

5.13x

10

Ram 1500 Classic

20.5

5.13x

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Besides the obvious discrepancy of Tesla recalls predominantly being recalled for issues fixed by OTA update, iSeeCars also noted that Tesla vehicles are more likely to be recalled later in life than their counterparts. Typically, as a vehicle ages, the number of times it is recalled in any given year decreases. However, this is less the case with Tesla vehicles, which are continually updated with newer software, hence introducing new recalls.

Outside of Tesla, other brands that fared poorly in the iSeeCars analysis include Porsche, which also appeared four times in the top 25; BMW and Jeep, which both appear three times; and Ford, Lincoln, Ram, and Volkswagen, which all appear twice.

On the opposite end of the study, analysts found that Mercedes, Lexus, and Toyota vehicles had the lowest number of lifetime recalls, with most of them not even having one. However, the top spot was taken by the MINI Cooper Convertible with only 0.2 lifetime recalls. The top 10 least recalled vehicles are as follows:

Rank

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Model

Expected 30-yr lifetime Recalls

Compared to the Overall Average

1

MINI Convertible

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0.2

0.05x

2

Lexus NX 300h

0.3

0.08x

3

Lincoln MKZ Hybrid

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0.5

0.13x

4

Mercedes-Benz CLA

0.5

0.13x

5

Lexus RX 450h

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0.5

0.13x

6

Nissan 370Z

0.5

0.13x

7

Hyundai Elantra GT

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0.6

0.15x

8

Mercedes-Benz GLA

0.6

0.15x

9

Mercedes-Benz GLC

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0.7

0.18x

10

Lexus IS 300

0.7

0.18x

What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!

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Will is an auto enthusiast, a gear head, and an EV enthusiast above all. From racing, to industry data, to the most advanced EV tech on earth, he now covers it at Teslarati.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.

Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.

Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.

That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.

Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.

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Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.

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Tesla expands global FSD (Supervised) testing with Abu Dhabi trials

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has started its first Full Self-Driving (Supervised) road trials in Abu Dhabi under the oversight of the Integrated Transport Centre, also known as Abu Dhabi Mobility. 

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

FSD (Supervised) road trials are being conducted with the support of the Smart and Autonomous Systems Council and in coordination with the Legislation Lab at the General Secretariat of the UAE Cabinet.

Dr. Abdulla Hamad AlGhfeli, Acting Director General of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility), highlighted the agency’s regulatory role in overseeing the FSD (Supervised) tests in a press release

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“The supervision of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility) over the commencement of Tesla’s advanced autonomous driving technology tests reflects its regulatory and legislative role. These tests represent a qualitative step to evaluate the technology’s performance in a real-world operating environment and to collect the necessary data to verify its readiness before any future expansion in usage.

“Through this organized framework, and in cooperation with strategic partners, we seek to achieve a balance between supporting innovation and encouraging the adoption of smart solutions on one hand and ensuring the safety of road users on the other, in line with the emirate’s direction to develop an advanced, safe, and sustainable transport system,” he said. 

Tesla is putting a lot of effort into expanding the rollout of FSD (Supervised) to territories outside in the United States. During a recent interview with Giga Berlin plant manager Andre Thierig, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to secure approval for FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands this coming March. 

“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully, it will be approved soon in Europe. We’re told by the authorities that March 20th, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands,’ what I was told. Hopefully, that date remains the same. But I think people in Europe are going to be pretty blown away by how good the Tesla car AI is in being able to drive,” Musk stated.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX considering confidential IPO filing this March: report

The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as March. The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited information shared by people reportedly familiar with the matter. 

As per the publication, a confidential filing allows a company to receive regulatory feedback before publicly releasing its financials. Bloomberg’s source, however, noted that the timing of SpaceX’s IPO is still under discussion and plans could change.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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A March submission would mark the clearest step yet toward bringing Elon Musk’s private space company into public markets. People familiar with the preparations said the offering could raise as much as $50 billion. That would surpass the $29 billion debut of Saudi Aramco in 2019, currently the largest IPO on record.

Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. are reportedly positioned for senior roles in the transaction. SpaceX is also said to be considering a dual-class structure that would allow insiders, including Musk, to retain enhanced voting control.

Satellite communications provider EchoStar Corp., which holds a stake in SpaceX, reportedly saw its shares rise following news of the potential filing.

At a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would immediately have a larger market cap than all but five of the companies traded in the S&P 500 index. That figure would place it ahead of Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. by market capitalization, trailing only a small group of mega-cap firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

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The scale of the proposed valuation reflects SpaceX’s dominance in orbital launch services and its Starlink satellite network, which serves millions of users globally. The company has also outlined long-term expansion plans tied to higher Starship launch cadence, orbital infrastructure, and lunar development initiatives.

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