Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) surges 14% in 2018 ahead of February 7 earnings report
Tesla’s market cap has increased by more than $2 billion this week, with shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) rising more than 3% in the week and nearly 14% for the year-t0-date. As the California-based electric car maker and energy firm enter the second month of the year, investors’ sentiments appear to be optimistic ahead of Tesla’s upcoming Q4 2017 earnings report.
According to analysts polled by FactSet, Tesla is expected to report an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales of $3.3 billion in the quarter, a significant difference from its figures the previous year. By comparison, the California-based electric car maker and energy firm posted an adjusted loss of 69 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion during Q4 2016. Still, Tesla shares have gained 42% in the past 12 months, more than doubling gains for the S&P 500 index Dow Jones Industrial Average.
While expectations are high that losses would be significant during the last quarter of 2017, many investors in the online forum community have remarked that they expect Tesla to recover and grow in the months to come as well. Many even noted that the behavior of Tesla’s stocks this January follow a pattern that’s similar to market trends back in 2013, when the company’s shares soared amid a successful debut of its Model S luxury sedan.
Positive investor sentiment is also shared by Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who recently published a note about his expectations for the Elon Musk-led electric car maker and energy firm. According to the analyst, Tesla’s early issues with Model 3 production during Q3 2017, coupled with the company’s adjusted guidance for the car’s optimum manufacturing and delivery, might ultimately affect the company’s stocks positively. Kallo even noted that Tesla’s adjusted Model 3 delivery timeline, published earlier this month, seemed to have “de-risked” the company’s shares.
“We think shares will react favorably if the company guides to more than 10,000 Model 3 deliveries in the first quarter of 2018. Additionally, we believe Tesla can fund the Model 3 ramp without raising additional capital, but think a raise would remove an additional overhang,” Kallo wrote in his report, according to Barron’s.
Overall, Kallo noted that Tesla’s stocks would likely hit $411 in the near future. Investors in the online community were a bit more generous, with some speculating that the $500 barrier might be breached by the Silicon Valley-based electric car firm before the end of this year.
Tesla ended Q4 2017 by hitting a number of milestones. Deliveries for the Model S and the Model X reached new records, exceeding the company’s initial target of delivering 100,000 cars within the year. Two new vehicles — the Tesla Semi and the next-generation Roadster — were also revealed. Apart from these, the pace of Model 3 deliveries also improved significantly, with Tesla stating that during the final days of December, the production of the mass market compact electric sedan extrapolated to over 1,000 units per week.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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