Investor's Corner
Wall St. firm maintains Tesla $500 price target, citing Model 3 gross margin surprise
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to gain momentum in Monday’s intraday amid a vote of confidence from investment bank Berenberg, which maintained its price target of $500 per share and a “Buy” rating on the Elon Musk-led electric car and energy company.
According to Berenberg’s analysts in a research note on Friday, despite the recovery of its stock, Tesla’s superior electronic architecture is still largely “overlooked,” especially by forecasts alleging that competition from traditional competitors is a huge threat to the company.
“Imminent competition from traditional Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) is often cited as a key threat to Tesla, but this underestimates the full extent of Tesla’s technology advantage, which manifests in the entire electronic architecture design,” said Berenberg in a research note to clients.
Berenberg’s analysts noted that Tesla’s centralized and tech-driven system enables it to become flexible. This was showcased recently when Tesla was able to reduce the braking distance of the Model 3 through an over-the-air software update, which ultimately gained the compact electric car a recommendation from Consumer Reports. According to the bank’s analysts, Tesla’s “clean-sheet development” allows the company to build its infrastructure around its technology — something that its competitors are not able to do.
“This is a decisive barrier for legacy carmakers. Tesla’s centralized, integrated, technology-driven architecture enables flexibility and OTA (over-the-air) software-upgradeability across the entire domain. In contrast, traditional architectures implement technology additively to the legacy infrastructure, resulting in decentralized electronic control units (ECUs) systems that create excess complexity and incompatibility,” the analysts wrote.
-->Apart from its optimistic outlook on Tesla’s technological edge, Berenberg analysts stated that they are expecting “Model 3 gross margin to positively surprise.” According to the investment bank, the assumption that the Model 3’s margins could be inferred from its more expensive siblings — the Model S and Model X — is “inherently flawed,” considering that lower labor content, as well as “capital and material use efficiencies,” allows the Elon Musk-led company to achieve a margin in the 25% or above range throughout the compact electric car’s product cycle.
Tesla’s stock started its meteoric rise on the heels of the company’s 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where CEO Elon Musk provided a number of encouraging updates to shareholders. During the event, Musk stated that Model 3 production would “quite likely” meet its 5,000-a-week goal by the end of June. Musk also reiterated his statement that Tesla would start becoming profitable by the third or fourth quarter this year.
Apart from good news from the Model 3 line, investor sentiments also improved after Musk revealed that Tesla Energy has managed to deploy a total of 1 GWh of energy storage to date. During the shareholder meeting, Musk noted that Tesla would do another 1 GWh project less than a year from now, followed by even bigger projects in the years to come.
The results of Tesla’s 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting were immediately felt by the company’s stock. Tesla ended up 9.7% on Wednesday trading, its biggest percentage gain since November 4, 2015. The 9.7% rise also caused Tesla’s short-sellers to lose $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses.
Tesla stock showed encouraging signs on Monday, with the company’s stock price surging nearly 5% when markets opened. As of writing, Tesla stock is up 3.80% at $329.79.
-->Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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