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Wall St. firm maintains Tesla $500 price target, citing Model 3 gross margin surprise

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to gain momentum in Monday’s intraday amid a vote of confidence from investment bank Berenberg, which maintained its price target of $500 per share and a “Buy” rating on the Elon Musk-led electric car and energy company.

According to Berenberg’s analysts in a research note on Friday, despite the recovery of its stock, Tesla’s superior electronic architecture is still largely “overlooked,” especially by forecasts alleging that competition from traditional competitors is a huge threat to the company.  

“Imminent competition from traditional Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) is often cited as a key threat to Tesla, but this underestimates the full extent of Tesla’s technology advantage, which manifests in the entire electronic architecture design,” said Berenberg in a research note to clients.

Berenberg’s analysts noted that Tesla’s centralized and tech-driven system enables it to become flexible. This was showcased recently when Tesla was able to reduce the braking distance of the Model 3 through an over-the-air software update, which ultimately gained the compact electric car a recommendation from Consumer Reports. According to the bank’s analysts, Tesla’s “clean-sheet development” allows the company to build its infrastructure around its technology — something that its competitors are not able to do.

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“This is a decisive barrier for legacy carmakers. Tesla’s centralized, integrated, technology-driven architecture enables flexibility and OTA (over-the-air) software-upgradeability across the entire domain. In contrast, traditional architectures implement technology additively to the legacy infrastructure, resulting in decentralized electronic control units (ECUs) systems that create excess complexity and incompatibility,” the analysts wrote.

Apart from its optimistic outlook on Tesla’s technological edge, Berenberg analysts stated that they are expecting “Model 3 gross margin to positively surprise.” According to the investment bank, the assumption that the Model 3’s margins could be inferred from its more expensive siblings — the Model S and Model X — is “inherently flawed,” considering that lower labor content, as well as “capital and material use efficiencies,” allows the Elon Musk-led company to achieve a margin in the 25% or above range throughout the compact electric car’s product cycle.

Tesla’s stock started its meteoric rise on the heels of the company’s 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where CEO Elon Musk provided a number of encouraging updates to shareholders. During the event, Musk stated that Model 3 production would “quite likely” meet its 5,000-a-week goal by the end of June. Musk also reiterated his statement that Tesla would start becoming profitable by the third or fourth quarter this year.

Apart from good news from the Model 3 line, investor sentiments also improved after Musk revealed that Tesla Energy has managed to deploy a total of 1 GWh of energy storage to date. During the shareholder meeting, Musk noted that Tesla would do another 1 GWh project less than a year from now, followed by even bigger projects in the years to come.

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The results of Tesla’s 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting were immediately felt by the company’s stock. Tesla ended up 9.7% on Wednesday trading, its biggest percentage gain since November 4, 2015. The 9.7% rise also caused Tesla’s short-sellers to lose $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses.

Tesla stock showed encouraging signs on Monday, with the company’s stock price surging nearly 5% when markets opened. As of writing, Tesla stock is up 3.80% at $329.79.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke

Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.

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SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.

Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.

SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13

 

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The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.

Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.

SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid CEO dispels any rumors of bankruptcy: ‘So far from the facts’

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.

The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.

The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”

Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”

Napoli said:

“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.

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As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.

We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.

My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.

I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”

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It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.

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Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.

Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Credit: Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.

Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”

Twork said:

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Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.

Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.

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Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.

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