Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may be slowly making its way toward Ark Invest’s Golden Goose scenario, which involves a $22,000 price target pre-split. At the beginning of 2020, ARK Invest released its updated TSLA valuation based on new research it had collected at the time. ARK analysts described ten different scenarios Tesla could take leading up to 2024 and gave each one a price target.
Tesla seems to be on track to hit the scenario ARK Invest labeled “The High Functioning EV Company” which has a price target of $3,400. Keep in mind that ARK released these estimates before Tesla announced the stock split. In this scenario, Tesla manages to lower costs and build factories efficiently, but doesn’t launch its autonomous network.
Tesla has managed to reduce costs further this year and could continue to do so in the coming years. In the third-quarter earnings call, CFO Zachary Kirkhorn stated that Tesla would continue to reduce manufacturing and operational costs in the future.
“We are also seeing benefits from the ongoing upward trend of locally built and delivered cars, which has increased from under 50% at the beginning of last year to over 70% most recently, which is a core component of our cost reduction strategy,” he added.
Gigafactory Shanghai showed that Tesla could build factories efficiently. Tesla China has been an integral part of the company’s profitable quarters this year. The construction of Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are not moving at quite the same speed as Giga Shanghai. However, Tesla has stated that the construction of Gigafactory Berlin and Texas are on schedule and could still start production by 2021.
Tesla seems to have checked off the two factors under ARK Invest’s “The High Functioning EV Company” scenario that warranted a $3,400 price target. After this scenario, Tesla would have to tackle autonomy.
ARK analysts split the ten scenario into two categories: No Autonomous and Autonomous. The difference between Tesla achieving autonomy and failing at it significantly affect its price target. ARK’s price target jumps from $3,400—the highest in the No Autonomous category—to $15,000 which is the lowest price target in the Autonomous category.
It seems that Tesla’s Golden Goose scenario hinges on the success of Full Self-Driving. The EV automaker released FSD beta last month and it showed massive improvements. Tesla still has a long way to go before it can successfully launch an autonomous network, but FSD beta seems to be a step in the right direction.
Disclosure: I am long TSLA.
News
Tesla Model 3 hits quarter million miles with original battery and motor
The Model 3’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.

A Western Australian Tesla Model 3 has captured global attention after racking up an impressive 410,000 kilometers (254,000 miles) on its original battery and motor, while still retaining around 90% of its original battery health.
Long-term Model 3
The 2021 Model 3 Standard Plus, equipped with a 60 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, has been in constant use as an Uber rideshare vehicle. According to Port Kennedy EV specialist EV Workz, the car’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.
EV Workz owner Edi Gutmanis shared the findings on Facebook’s Electric Vehicles For Australia page on August 8, and the post quickly went viral. As per Gutmanis, the Model 3’s charging history shows 15,556 kWh delivered via DC fast charging (29% of the total) and 38,012 kWh via AC charging (71% of the total).
Gutmanis also broke down the fuel savings for the Model 3. A petrol car covering the same 410,000 km at 7L/100km and $1.70 per liter would cost an estimated AU$50,000 in fuel. By comparison, charging the Tesla using average commercial rates would be about AU$20,737 and just AU$13,000 if using Western Australia’s EV tariff. That’s a potential refueling saving of roughly $37,000, not including the avoided maintenance costs of an internal combustion engine.
Simple fix
The car came into EV Workz for a driveline “judder” issue, as per a report form EV Central Australia. Gutmanis found the real cause was simply worn motor mount bushes. After seven hours of labor and $130 in parts, “the car drives just as good as the first day it left the dealership,” Gutmanis said.
Gutmanis, whose business also performs EV conversions on classics and 4x4s, says the results aren’t surprising. “We expect this sort of longevity with EV batteries,” he explained, though this is the highest-mileage Model 3 he has encountered in Australia.
News
Mysterious covered Tesla Model Y fleet spotted in Giga Berlin
The vehicles were sighted during a recent drone flyover of the Germany-based Model Y production site.

A fleet of mysterious covered Model Y units has been spotted at the Giga Berlin complex. The vehicles were sighted during a recent drone flyover of the Germany-based Model Y production site.
A mysterious fleet
The mysterious Model Y fleet was sighted by longtime Giga Berlin watcher Tobias Lindh, who has been chronicling the progress and activities of Tesla’s German factory complex for years. During his flyover on August 12, 2025, Lindh noted that he was able to spot a fleet of fully covered Model Y units being gathered in one section of the Giga Berlin site.
The presence of the covered Model Y units caught a lot of attention online, with numerous Tesla watchers speculating if the vehicles were the Model Y L or the yet-to-be-released Model Y Performance. Giga Berlin only produces Model Y units, after all, and both the Model Y L and Model Y Performance are yet to be rolled out by the electric vehicle maker.
Tesla Model Y Performance the Model Y L
The Model Y is Tesla’s best-selling vehicle by a mile, selling so well that it was able to become the world’s best-selling car by volume in 2023. With the changeover to the new Model Y this year, Tesla has only released the vehicle’s updated RWD and AWD versions. The updated Model Y Performance is yet to be released as of writing, though sightings of apparent Model Y Performance units have been reported on social media.
In recent weeks, however, the Model Y news cycle has been dominated by the upcoming release of the Model Y L, an extended wheelbase, six-seat version of the best-selling all-electric crossover. The Model Y L is expected to be produced in Giga Shanghai initially, though Giga Berlin, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Texas are also expected to produce the variant in the near future.
Check out Giga Berlin’s mysterious Model Y fleet in the video below.
News
Ukraine completes first Starlink direct-to-cell test in Eastern Europe
The trial was announced by the Ministry of Digital Transformation and Kyivstar’s parent company Veon, in a press release.

Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, Kyivstar, has completed its first test of Starlink’s Direct to Cell satellite technology, enabling text messages to be sent directly from 4G smartphones without extra hardware.
The trial was announced by the Ministry of Digital Transformation and Kyivstar’s parent company Veon in a press release.
First Eastern Europe field test
The Zhytomyr region hosted the pilot, where Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and Kyivstar CEO Oleksandr Komarov exchanged texts and even made a brief video call via Starlink’s satellite link in northern Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region.
Veon stated that the test marked Eastern Europe’s first field trial of the technology, which will allow Kyivstar’s 23 million subscribers to stay connected in areas without cellular coverage. The service will debut in fall 2025 with free text messaging during its testing phase.
“Our partnership with Starlink integrates terrestrial networks with satellite platforms, ensuring that nothing stands between our customers and connectivity – not power outages, deserts, mountains, floods, earthquakes, or even landmines,” Veon CEO Kaan Terzioglu stated.
Starlink in Ukraine
Kyivstar signed its Direct to Cell agreement with Starlink in December 2024, about a year after a major cyberattack disrupted service and caused nearly $100 million in damages, as noted in a report from the Kyiv Independent. Starlink technology has been a pivotal part of Ukraine’s defense against Russia in the ongoing conflict.
“Despite all the challenges of wartime, we continue to develop innovative solutions, because reliable communication under any circumstances and in any location is one of our key priorities. Therefore, this Kyivstar project is an example of effective partnership between the state, business, and technology companies, which opens the way to the future of communication without borders,” Mykhailo Fedorov, First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, said.
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