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Tesla bull ARK Invest estimates Starlink to generate over $20B cash flow per year

Credit: NetVault

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One of Tesla’s most ardent bulls believes that Elon Musk’s Starlink has a lot of innate potential, so much so that the satellite internet service may churn over $20 billion of cash flow annually. To get to this point, however, Starlink would first have to survive its early years, which would likely be extremely challenging. 

In a recent note, ARK Invest, a firm that was closest in predicting TSLA stock’s wild rise last year, stated that it believes Starlink’s cash flows would be negative for the first eight years. This, according to the firm, would be due to the high cost of launching the satellites into space. Elon Musk’s SpaceX manages these expenses to some degree by launching batches of Starlink satellites in reused rockets, but the costs remain substantial. 

ARK Invest stated that according to its research, Starlink’s satellites would likely be de-orbited every five years on average. This should allow the constellation to scale up to a significant degree, provided that the service survives its early days of attracting customers. ARK Invest Analyst Sam Korus explained this in the following. 

“SpaceX’s satellite business could generate more than $20 billion of cash flow annually on a constellation that costs roughly $10 billion to launch, as replacement satellites would launch at much higher utilization rates. If we are correct, Starlink then would be able to acquire a terrestrial internet provider and minimize latency by routing internet traffic, gaining another competitive edge,” Korus wrote. 

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Elon Musk has noted that Starlink is still a few years away from delivering a predictable revenue, though he has stated that the satellite internet system had crossed the “strategically important” threshold of 69,420 active users last month. So far, SpaceX has launched over 1,500 Starlink satellites, and it hopes to have over 4,400 satellites in orbit by 2024. SpaceX is aiming to provide internet access globally later this year as well. 

This would likely be up to SpaceX’s capability to launch Starlink satellites as fast as it can, as the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved 11,943 satellites to be launched into orbit. Starlink is expected to comprise 42,000 satellites around the planet in its completed form, effectively providing high-speed internet access to even the remotest parts of the world. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla revises FSD transfer policy on new Cybertruck trim, causing cancellations

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has apparently revised the policy it previously had listed for Full Self-Driving transfers on the newest All-Wheel-Drive Cybertruck that the company had sold for a steal price of just $59,000 earlier this year.

After initially stating that customers who bought the pickup would be able to transfer FSD purchases, Tesla recently changed the language in those terms and conditions to reflect that this would no longer be the case.

Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price

The adjustment in terminology has caused a handful of orderers to cancel their reservations due to the loss of FSD transfer:

Tesla said orders for the new Cybertruck AWD must be placed by March 31, 2026, to qualify for the FSD transfer. The language in the document from earlier this year explicitly states that they “may qualify” for the transfer program, but the date of March 31 is explicitly mentioned.

Additionally, Tesla Delivery Advisors reached out to some orderers of the AWD Cybertruck, who were told there was “an update to the eligibility of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) transfer.” Tesla stated they could:

  • proceed without the transfer,
  • upgrade to a Premium or Cyberbeast trim and request an FSD Transfer
  • cancel the order and be refunded the $250 order fee.

Tesla turning around and changing these terms will undoubtedly result in a handful of cancellations on the part of those who have placed an order for this truck. They could pay $99 per month for an FSD subscription, which is now the only option available, but having purchased the suite outright on another vehicle and being told the transfer policy would be upheld, only to have it cancelled, is a tough pill to swallow.

These moves were also made by Tesla just before deliveries were set to begin on the Cybertruck AWD configuration. Reservation holders have started receiving VINs for their trucks, and Tesla is preparing to hand over the first units.

It’s a disappointing move from Tesla that will undoubtedly make some of its fans who have bought the truck frustrated.

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Tesla tipped its hand at where Robotaxi is heading next

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Tesla Cybercab production units rolling off the factory line in Gigafactory Texas (Credit: Tesla)
Tesla Cybercab production units rolling off the factory line in Gigafactory Texas (Credit: Tesla)

In the world of autonomous ride-hailing, there are only a handful of names. Among those few companies lies a strategy play by each to keep the opposition on their toes. Tesla, on the other hand, already tipped its hand at where it is headed next.

Tesla has signaled its next major push in the autonomous ride-hailing market by filing for an Autonomous Vehicle Network Company permit in Nevada (Docket 26-05015). Through Tesla Robotaxi, LLC, the company seeks approval to operate up to 5,000 robotaxis in Clark County, including high-traffic areas like Las Vegas and Henderson airports, within the first 12 months of launch.

This filing builds on Tesla’s earlier testing approvals from the Nevada DMV in September 2025 and preparations such as maintenance hubs in the Las Vegas area. Nevada represents a strategic expansion into a major tourist destination, where high visitor volumes could drive strong utilization and showcase the reliability of unsupervised autonomy to a broad audience.

Approval would mark a significant step toward commercial operations in a new state, following progress in Texas.

Tesla’s shareholder decks and earnings calls have clearly outlined these ambitions. In the Q4 2025 shareholder deck, the company listed planned Robotaxi coverage for the first half of 2026, explicitly naming Las Vegas alongside Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, with Dallas and Houston already advancing. Austin was noted as “ramping unsupervised,” while the Bay Area remained in safety-driver mode.

By Q1 2026, the deck updated statuses to reflect launches in Dallas and Houston, with “preparations underway” for the remaining cities, including Las Vegas. Paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially in Q1, underscoring momentum even as broader timelines adjusted slightly for regulatory and operational readiness.

On earnings calls, CEO Elon Musk and executives have emphasized a phased rollout prioritizing safety. Unsupervised operations in Texas have shown strong results with no reported accidents or injuries in the program. Tesla continues groundwork in additional major U.S. metros through testing and permitting, positioning it to scale quickly once approvals clear.

This Nevada move aligns with Tesla’s vision of transforming from an EV maker into an AI and robotics leader. The forthcoming Cybercab, which started production at Giga Texas in April, is expected to eventually dominate the fleet, replacing many Model Y vehicles and driving down costs to enable affordable rides.

For investors and the industry, this signals Tesla’s intent to dominate key Sun Belt and tourist markets where weather, regulations, and demand favor rapid scaling. Success in Las Vegas could validate the model for denser urban and high-tourism environments, accelerating the shift toward a future where robotaxis generate meaningful revenue.

Las Vegas will also expand knowledge among the general public at Tesla’s capabilities, helping people experience driverless ride-hailing from several companies during their time on The Strip.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just did something in South Korea that no foreign carmaker has ever done

Tesla’s Model Y just became South Korea’s best-selling car, beating every domestic model in May.

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Tesla did something last month that no foreign car has ever done in South Korea by outselling every vehicle in the country, domestic or imported, finishing the month with Model Y as the single best-selling car across the entire Korean market. According to data from the Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association released on June 4, the Model Y recorded 8,762 units sold in May, pushing the Kia Sorento into second place at 7,836 units and the Hyundai Grandeur into third at 5,183 units. It is the first time an imported vehicle has outsold every domestic model on a single-month basis.

Tesla imported 10,866 cars into South Korea in May, making it the top import brand for the fourth consecutive month. BMW followed at 6,555 units, less than two-thirds of Tesla’s total, while BYD registered just 1,032 units. The combined domestic sales of GM Korea, Renault Korea, and KG Mobility last month totaled just 7,019 units, meaning a single Tesla model outsold three Korean automakers combined.

Tesla FSD earns high praise in South Korea’s real-world autonomous driving test

 

South Korea has historically been one of the hardest markets for foreign automakers to crack. Hyundai and Kia together control close to 70% of the overall market and carry deep consumer loyalty built over decades. Tesla’s path into this market was an uphill battle due to high import duties, limited service infrastructure, and early skepticism about charging networks. In 2024, the Model Y was the best-selling imported car in South Korea with 18,717 units for the full year. By 2025, after the Juniper refresh, it cleared 50,000 units and took the top spot among all EVs.

Year to date, Tesla has a 250.8% increase in the country over the same period last year, and now holds a 30.8% share of the entire imported car segment for 2026. EVs as a category represented 48.6% of all imported passenger car registrations in May. As Teslarati has reported, the Juniper refresh brought meaningful improvements to range, interior quality, and ride refinement that addressed the most common criticisms of earlier Model Y versions. Those upgrades appear to be resonating in markets like South Korea where buyers compare Tesla directly against high end domestic competitors.

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