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Investor's Corner

Tesla files to build EV batteries on new production lines at Fremont Factory

Credit: Tesla

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has filed to build a new battery manufacturing equipment line at the Fremont Factory in Northern California. The factory, which Tesla purchased in 2010, is the only in the company’s lineup to produce all four models. It has not been known as a battery cell or pack manufacturing plant, as the company’s Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, produces those EV components. However, the filings indicate Tesla may be looking to slightly expand its cell manufacturing efforts with new production lines at Fremont.

Filed and signed by Tesla on August 30, the permit is labeled as “Tesla F21-0391-A – CTA Battery B-Build.” Tesla gives the following description of the project:

“NEW BATTERY MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT LINE ON 2ND FLOOR OF MAIN ASSEMBLY BUILDING. THIS PERMIT APPLICATION RELATES TO THE MODULE PORTION OF THE LINE.”

The project is valued at $1.5 million, according to documents seen by Teslarati.

tesla battery cell manufacturing filing

Credit: City of Fremont

Credit: City of Fremont

Additionally, another application reveals a $1.3 million project that includes the installation of a new maintenance office, a storage area, production cells with equipment for hood, fender, and trunk lids, and offline cell manufacturing equipment. This project is listed to be on the first floor of the assembly building.

Interestingly, the Fremont Factory has been one of Tesla’s more spacially-confined facilities. Earlier this year, during a visit from Morgan Stanley analysts, including Adam Jonas, the firm noted the Fremont Factory was incredibly tight in terms of storage capacity and room in general. Despite running at a capacity of 20 percent above what has been considered its maximum. “The plant was never designed to produce 450k units (at its peak produced ~300k units before Tesla took it over from Toyota), which was immediately apparent at the tour, ” Jonas wrote in his note describing the visit. “Tesla does not shy away from the fact the plant is inefficiently designed with four assembly buildings, one of which is a tent that cars are assembled in,” referring to GA 4.5, which was made permanent last year.

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Just two weeks prior to Morgan Stanley’s visit to Fremont, CEO Elon Musk stated Tesla was considering expanding Fremont “significantly.” While many of us just thought this likely meant an expansion of vehicle production alone, Musk may have been hinting toward an expansion of the manufacturing process altogether.

Tesla battery manufacturing efforts

Tesla has held battery supply deals with Panasonic, CATL, and LG Chem, but has also started building its own cells in-house. In 2020, Tesla unveiled its 4680 battery cell, which has already been prototype-tested by Panasonic. Tesla has been building the cell at the Kato Rd. facility just a few blocks away from Fremont’s front doors. However, the automaker has not scaled this cell to mass production as of yet, and Tesla could always use more battery cells.

With the 4680 cell not quite reaching mass production volumes yet, an order log that grows with what seems to be every minute, and a production volume that just simply has not caught up to Tesla’s demand, it would make sense to expand in-house battery manufacturing efforts as supplementary support.

“I think we’ve said this now for many years. I know has proven true. Tesla does not have a demand problem, we have a production problem. And we’ve almost always had it’s a very rare exception it’s always been a production problem,” Musk said after Q2. “I think that will remain the case.”

Rearranging at the Fremont Factory

Over the past month or so, Tesla has filed to make many significant changes at the Fremont Factory. After we reported on the construction efforts that are seemingly underway, Tesla has also been filing several applications with the City of Fremont for equipment repositioning, as well as the construction of new foundations and manufacturing equipment. Even things as simple as light poles are being repositioned to make way for potential new manufacturing buildings.

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Tesla Fremont plant is abuzz with activity as nearby construction goes underway

Tesla has also started relocating Model S and X production equipment to other portions of the factory. “GASX,” which we can assume is “General Assembly Model S and X,” has had a hoist relocated, according to filings. Tesla has also filed to install production tools and other associated Model S and Model X manufacturing utilities in the factory. This does not necessarily imply that production lines for the two vehicles will be expanding, especially considering the vehicles make up an extremely small portion of Tesla’s overall sales. However, these manufacturing lines may be shifting to other locations at Fremont to make way for the perhaps imminent installation of cell manufacturing lines at Fremont.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm

ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

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tesla elon musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).

Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.

The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.

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However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.

The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”

However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.

If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.

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Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.

Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+

Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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