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Tesla’s potential as electric car supplier prompts $1.2k TSLA bull case

A Tesla employee at the company's facility in Fremont, California. (Credit: YouTube/RoadShow)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) potential to serve as a battery supplier for other automotive companies has encouraged Wall Street to raise its price target for the electric car maker. In a recent note, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas updated his bull case for Tesla to $1,200 per share, a far cry from his previous $650.

Jonas nearly doubled his bull case on Tuesday after recognizing the company’s ability to become a key supplier for electric car makers. With Tesla’s reported acquisition of multiple battery research companies and partnerships with other organizations like China-based CATL, the task of becoming a main battery supplier for EVs is not necessarily far fetched.

TSLA closed at $800.03 on Friday and did not trade on Monday due to the American President’s Day Holiday. Yet TSLA shares rose sharply on Monday’s pre-market following Jonas’ upgrade. Tesla would need to rise a further 50% to reach Morgan Stanley’s new target, but he believes it is plausible as Tesla could win 30% of the global electric car market. The analyst noted this was an “aggressive assumption” in his report.

To reach these figures, Jonas stated that Tesla would need to deliver 4 million cars by 2030 and prove to the market that it has the capability to supply powertrains, batteries, and electric motors to other car manufacturers. Tesla’s biggest year was 2019 where they delivered 367,500 cars over twelve months. With the addition of both the Model Y crossover and the Cybertruck, achieving the delivery goal may very well be feasible.

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Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst for Bernstein, also raised his price target for TSLA from $325 to $730. Sacconaghi was vocal about the “extremely unusual” rise in Tesla stock price after its surge but has seemed to accept the idea that the company may be “sustainably profitable.” He is still slightly uneasy about justifying Tesla’s current share price, but with the Model 3’s steady demand, and company’s gross margins and operating expenses improving, $730 was certainly understandable.

Sacconaghi wrote a note to clients that stated “Tesla is the ultimate ‘possibility’ stock,” and could grow its addressable market by more than 30-fold in the next 20 years. If Tesla shares were to drop 50%, its market could still grow 15 times within the two-decade time frame.” Sacconaghi maintained his Hold-equivalent rating for the electric car maker.

Tesla’s meteoric rise since its breakthrough Q3 2019 earnings could be attributed to a variety of things, including some shorts exiting their positions, Giga Shanghai’s faster-than-expected delivery of the Model 3, or even investors all trying to get a piece of the Tesla pie.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +6.09% at $848.78 per share. 

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Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla exec pleads for federal framework of autonomy to U.S. Senate Committee

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla executive Lars Moravy appeared today in front of the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee to highlight the importance of modernizing autonomy standards by establishing a federal framework that would reward innovation and keep the country on pace with foreign rivals.

Moravy, who is Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, strongly advocated for Congress to enact a national framework for autonomous vehicle development and deployment, replacing the current patchwork of state-by-state rules.

These rules have slowed progress and kept companies fighting tooth-and-nail with local legislators to operate self-driving projects in controlled areas.

Tesla already has a complete Robotaxi model, and it doesn’t depend on passenger count

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Moravy said the new federal framework was essential for the U.S. to “maintain its position in global technological development and grow its advanced manufacturing capabilities.

He also said in a warning to the committee that outdated regulations and approval processes would “inhibit the industry’s ability to innovate,” which could potentially lead to falling behind China.

Being part of the company leading the charge in terms of autonomous vehicle development in the U.S., Moravy highlighted Tesla’s prowess through the development of the Full Self-Driving platform. Tesla vehicles with FSD engaged average 5.1 million miles before a major collision, which outpaces that of the human driver average of roughly 699,000 miles.

Moravy also highlighted the widely cited NHTSA statistic that states that roughly 94 percent of crashes stem from human error, positioning autonomous vehicles as a path to dramatically reduce fatalities and injuries.

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Skeptics sometimes point to cybersecurity concerns within self-driving vehicles, which was something that was highlighted during the Senate Commerce Committee hearing, but Moravy said, “No one has ever been able to take over control of our vehicles.”

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This level of security is thanks to a core-embedded central layer, which is inaccessible from external connections. Additionally, Tesla utilizes a dual cryptographic signature from two separate individuals, keeping security high.

Moravy also dove into Tesla’s commitment to inclusive mobility by stating, “We are committed with our future products and Robotaxis to provide accessible transportation to everyone.” This has been a major point of optimism for AVs because it could help the disabled, physically incapable, the elderly, and the blind have consistent transportation.

Overall, Moravy’s testimony blended urgency about geopolitical competition, especially China, with concrete safety statistics and a vision of the advantages autonomy could bring for everyone, not only in the U.S., but around the world, as well.

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Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.

However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.

Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.

Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level

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While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.

Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.

But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.

Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.

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Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.

Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space

Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.

Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.

Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.

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Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space

You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.

The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?

Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity

The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.

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Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.

Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.

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Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet

Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.

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Credit: Tesla/YouTube

Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.

Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.

Optimus as a von Neumann machine

In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.

A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention. 

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Elon Musk’s broader plans

Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.

Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem. 

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