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Tesla bears are becoming an endangered species

Credit: Tesla Owners Ontario/Twitter

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Tesla has the makings of a controversial stock. It’s a company with products that are loved by its users and hated by its skeptics, and it’s led by a man that’s both admired by his supporters and loathed by his critics. It was then no surprise when Tesla became one of the most-shorted companies in the market. But amidst Tesla’s rise last year and the release of its Q1 2021 vehicle production and delivery report, it appears that TSLA bears, or at least a good number of them, are starting to go extinct. 

A good overview of how a company is perceived could be found in the overall stance of analysts covering the stock. Among the 41 analysts covering TSLA today, 15 have a “Buy” rating, 14 maintain a “Hold” rating, and 12 have a “Sell” rating, as per data from Bloomberg. This suggests that Tesla remains quite polarizing, as Buy ratings typically outnumber Sell ratings 10-to-1 for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. 

Tesla (TSLA) sets new records with with 184k vehicle deliveries in Q1 2021

The same is true for TSLA’s price targets. Tesla’s bull-bear spread between its highest price target ($1,036) and its lowest ($135) stands at $901, or about 133% of the current $661.75 stock price. In the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the average bull-bear spread for stocks is less than 50%. While Tesla has maintained its polarizing nature in the market, however, there is one metric that suggests that a TSLA bear exodus is taking place. 

There was a time not too long ago when Tesla’s short-interest ratio was about 25%, which meant that one in every four shares was borrowed and sold by investors betting on the company to fail. Such a short-interest ratio was insane, as the average for stocks in the S&P 500 is just about 3%. Today, this ratio stands at just about 6%, which is still higher than average but significantly lower than its figures three years ago. 

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As noted in a Barron’s report, there is an important mitigating factor in Tesla’s short-interest ratio, in the form of hundreds of millions in convertible bonds outstanding, most of which were issued long ago and are capable of being converted into TSLA stock at around $65 per share. Considering that Tesla stock is worth more than 10x that amount today, the convertible bonds have rallied over 500% over the past year. 

A Tesla logo on the Gigafactory Berlin site. (Credit: @gigafactory_4/Twitter)

While this is great for convertible bond holders, numerous bond investors are actually not interested in Tesla stock. Instead, some are convertible arbitrage investors, who buy convertible bonds and short the underlying stock. This way, the arbitrage trader is able to lock in a notable bond yield. S3 Partners managing director of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky has noted that the bonds are “mostly held by hedge funds.” He also estimates that about half of Tesla’s current short interest might be part of a convertible arbitrage strategy. 

If the S3 Partners’ executive’s estimates are accurate, it would suggest that about 22 million Tesla shares are sold short, or about 2.9% of TSLA stock. This number is substantial, but it is small compared to the 200 million TSLA shares sold short back in 2019. This does not mean to say that Tesla bears have entirely given up, of course, as some will likely remain with their short position for a long time to come. However, the declining number of TSLA shares that are sold short does suggest that bears, or at least a good number of them, may be throwing in the towel. 

Former Goldman Sachs Asset Management CIO Gary Black has noted that the declining number of TSLA bears may be due to the fact that some critical bearish arguments against Tesla are being soundly debunked. One of these is the notion that Tesla’s share of the EV market will get drastically smaller as soon as other automakers enter the electric car segment. Despite the noise by proponents of this thesis, the opposite has been true, as more and more car buyers tend to leave gas-powered vehicles–not other electric cars like Tesla–when they purchase EVs made by other automakers. 

Disclaimer: I am long TSLA

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla launches new color from Gigafactory Berlin

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has launched a new color at Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, home of the company’s “world-class paint shop,” as Elon Musk once called it.

Bringing a new color to Tesla’s Model Y, there are now five available colors for those who will receive a vehicle from Gigafactory Berlin, with four of them being colors offered in other markets.

However, there is now one distinct color that is only available in Germany: Marine Blue.

Priced at €1,300, Marine Blue will cost the same as both Diamond Black and Stealth Grey, while Quicksilver and Ultra Red are available for double the price.

It is the third shade of blue Tesla offers across its lineup, as Deep Metallic Blue and Glacier Blue are also offered, but in other markets.

Tesla has routinely flexed Giga Berlin for having the most advanced paint shop throughout its factories, and it has produced some interesting colors over the past few years, some of which were truly awesome.

Tesla Giga Berlin is getting a world-class paint shop, new color ‘layers’ to come

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In 2020, Musk said, “Giga Berlin will have the world’s most advanced paint shop, with more layers of stunning colors that subtly change with curvature.”

He also detailed the company’s plans to upgrade the Fremont and Shanghai paint shops. Gigafactory Texas was not yet unveiled. Tesla has worked to improve those facilities, especially in Fremont.

It was able to roll out the new Diamond Black color earlier this year.

However, Giga Berlin seems to remain the standard in terms of paint for Tesla. It routinely offers new colors.

For example, back in 2022, Tesla rolled out its familiar Quicksilver color for the Model Y, while also introducing Midnight Cherry Red, a color close to burgundy. However, the company chose to discontinue the color after determining internally that customers no longer wanted to buy it.

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Midnight Cherry Red was removed as an option earlier this year, likely to make way for the development of the new Marine Blue.

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Tesla Autopilot visualization gets big upgrade with tons of new additions

The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.

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Credit: @greentheonly | X

Tesla’s Autopilot visualization just got a big upgrade as the company added tons of new additions to what it will be able to render in terms of a vehicle’s surroundings.

The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.

Tesla just fixed a four-year-old bug with Full Self-Driving visualization

However, it still does not have every single application, and acquiring them will take some time. If an object or vehicle is visible to the vehicle but an accurate render is not available, the car will instead pick whatever is closest.

For example, I passed an Amish family yesterday in Lancaster, PA, and instead of illustrating the horse and carriage, it simply showed a small box truck.

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In an effort to make the Autopilot and Full Self-Driving suites more robust and accurate, Tesla has added a substantial amount of vehicle renders, which will become available in the coming weeks.

The visualizations were found by Tesla hacker @greentheonly, who posted them on X.

The new visualization renders are:

  • Ambulance
  • Firetruck
  • Garbage Truck
  • Schoolbus
  • European Semi Truck
  • Golf Cart
  • Person on a Scooter
  • Person on a Skateboard
  • Stroller
  • Street Sweeper
  • Three-Wheeler
  • Trailer
  • Train
  • Tram
  • Person in a Wheelchair

Here is an image with all of the Autopilot visualization renders:

Credit: Green

The visualization is a crucial part of manual operation and can be considered a distinct advantage that Tesla has over other companies.

It continues to be an effort that Tesla invests heavily in, as it keeps refining the suite and making it more robust with additional visualizations and animations.

Recently, it was revealed that Tesla is planning to utilize Unreal Engine for driver visualization to create a realistic depiction of the vehicle’s environment. Tesla has not yet confirmed this, but coding found with the Model S and Model X showed it could be coming in the near future.

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Tesla dominates best-selling EVs in Q3, but there’s one disappointment

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla dominated the sales figures for electric vehicles in the third quarter in the United States, but there was one disappointment: the Cybertruck.

As a whole, the EV industry benefitted from the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit in Q3, which was something many expected. As the credit expired, consumers rushed to showrooms to take the credit and remove $7,500 from the purchase price of their new vehicle.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

It was a very interesting time for many companies as they scrambled to figure out how to push as many vehicles out the door as they could in preparation for the tax credit’s removal. In typical fashion, Tesla was able to top every manufacturer and secure a dominating portion of the overall market in Q3.

However, some other OEMs pulled out some surprises, including Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford, which managed to get two vehicles in the top 10, as many as Tesla.

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Cox Automotive compiled the data in its Q3 Electric Vehicle Sales Report:

  1. Tesla Model Y – 114,897
  2. Tesla Model 3 – 53,857
  3. Chevrolet Equinox EV – 25,085
  4. Hyundai Ioniq 5 – 21,999
  5. Honda Prologue – 20,236
  6. Ford Mustang Mach-E – 20,177
  7. Volkswagen ID.4 – 12,470
  8. Audi Q6 e-tron – 10,299
  9. Ford F-150 Lightning – 10,005
  10. Rivian R1S – 8,184

10.5 percent of the automotive sales in the U.S. in Q3 were electric, a new record that surpasses that of Q3 2024, where the total share of sales for EVs was 8.6 percent.

Now, the disappointment that is evident from this list is the fact that there is no Tesla Cybertruck listed. That’s because it was the second-best-selling EV pickup on the market. The company sold 5,385 Cybertruck units in Q3.

The Cybertruck has been a vehicle that has confused many Tesla fans and owners, especially considering the company had such stratospheric expectations for the vehicle while it was in development. Reservation trackers had the truck sitting between one million and two million orders, but it has not lived up to that.

Pricing is the main issue with Cybertruck. Tesla introduced the pickup with Single, Dual, and Tri-motor configurations, priced at $39,990, $49,990, and $69,990. Those price points are simply a thing of the past.

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