Tesla analysts have adjusted their global delivery analysts, considering the headwinds the EV manufacturer faced in Q2 2022.
The Street’s Delivery Forecasts
Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said the Street’s line in the sand for Tesla’s deliveries is roughly 250,000 globally, and anything above 260,000 will be viewed positively. He added that if Tesla reports Model Y and Model 3 deliveries around 240,000 to 245,000, the Street would consider it “good enough.”
Ives remains bullish on Tesla, forecasting 277,000 deliveries for Tesla in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson also have bullish forecasts at 270,000 deliveries.
Analysts have slashed their delivery estimates as the second quarter ends. Even Ives and Jonas’ current delivery expectations are lower than their initial estimates. Ives initially expected Tesla to deliver around 300,000 vehicles in Q2.
On the other side of the spectrum, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh expects Tesla to report 232,000 deliveries, down from 296,000. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank lowered his Tesla delivery estimate to 245,000 from 310,000.
Tesla’s Q2 Headwinds
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, broken down to 14,218 Model S/X units and 291,189 Model 3/Y cars. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental to Tesla’s record-breaking delivery numbers in Q1 2022. Unfortunately, Tesla China was crippled in Q2 due to Covid-related shutdowns.
For most of the second quarter, Giga Shanghai worked under the city’s strict closed-loop system, preventing Tesla from working in multiple shifts. Tesla employees worked single 12-hour shifts, six days a week under Shanghai’s closed-loop setup. Tesla Giga Shanghai seems determined to get back to its rhythm but plans to halt production first to upgrade its Model Y assembly line and boost capacity
Meanwhile, Tesla has not ramped production fully at its new gigafactories in Texas and Germany. “Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there’s a ton of expense and hardly any output,” Musk said in an interview with Tesla community leaders.
Tesla seemed aware of the challenges coming into the second quarter. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted all the possible headwinds the company might face in Q2.
“Looking ahead in the immediate term, a few things to keep in mind for Q2. First, we’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai due to COVID-related shutdowns. Production is resuming at limited levels, and we’re working to get back to full production as quickly as possible. This will impact total build and delivery volume in Q2,” Kirkhorn stated at the Q1 earnings call.
“Second, as I’ve mentioned before, Austin and Berlin are just starting their ramps. And thus, those inefficiencies will start to flow through our gross margins in Q2. Third, we do have higher ASPs in our backlog, which will help to offset some of these headwinds. We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year,” he added.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.
Investor's Corner
X clarifies xAI prediction market rumors, hints at future plans
Musk’s AI firm denied rumors of a Kalshi deal but left the door open. Prediction markets + AI could change how we forecast everything.

X dismissed rumors of xAI entering prediction market partnerships. In a recent X post, Elon Musk’s company clarified that xAI had not yet entered formal partnerships in the prediction market.
However, xAI clarification hinted at future exploration in the prediction market, aligning with X’s goal to become an “everything app.” The speculation underscores AI’s potential to reshape predictive analytics.
“Recent speculation about xAI’s involvement in the prediction market space has been circulating. While we’re enthusiastic about the potential of this industry and engaged in various discussions, no formal partnerships have been confirmed to date. Stay tuned!” noted the X team.
X’s statement followed a Tuesday post by Kalshi, hinting at a collaboration with xAI, which was deleted hours later. Kalshi suggested that xAI could leverage AI to analyze X’s news and social media data, enhancing betting decisions on political and economic events.
Bloomberg reported Kalshi aims to use xAI for tailored insights, enabling users to wager on outcomes like Federal Reserve rate changes or elections through derivative contracts.
“There’s deep alignment between prediction markets, social media, and AI. Prediction markets capture what people know — AI scales what people can know,” said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. “This is just the beginning of a long collaboration to unlock the full potential of prediction markets.”
The prediction market industry fits X’s vision to evolve into a comprehensive platform, capitalizing on its trend and news leader role. While xAI’s denial quashes immediate partnership claims, its openness to discussions signals potential interest in prediction markets, where AI could amplify real-time insights.
xAI’s cautious stance reflects its focus on strategic AI development while navigating speculative buzz. As X pursues its “everything app” ambition, prediction markets could enhance its ecosystem, blending social media’s pulse with AI-driven analytics. With no partnerships confirmed, xAI’s future moves may yet redefine how users engage with event-based predictions, positioning it at the forefront of AI innovation.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk sends stern warning to Tesla vandals, doubters
Elon Musk sent another warning to vandals that have attacked Tesla for political reasons.

Elon Musk has sent a stern warning to Tesla vandals, doubters, and attackers, who have subjected the company and its owners to political violence through arson and other modes of retaliation.
Over the past few months, Tesla showrooms and vehicles have been hit with numerous attacks from those who have opposed Musk and his political involvement with the Trump Administration. Although Musk has stepped back from his role within government significantly since the start of May, the company is still looked at as a political target.
While the White House has put a clear-cut line on the acts, calling them domestic terrorism and holding those responsible for the damage they have done, there are still numerous and daily instances of keying cars or worse.
Yesterday, Musk continued to send stern warnings to those who oppose Tesla and choose to handle their distaste for the company with violence and vandalism. In a Bloomberg interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Musk was asked if he took what has happened to Tesla “over the past few months personally.”
Musk replied simply but sternly: “Yes.”
“Did you take what happened to Tesla over the past few months personally?”
“Yes.” –@elonmusk pic.twitter.com/mNbgkpgZEo
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) May 20, 2025
He went on to say that not only will those who vandalized the company and its products owned by consumers be held to the fullest extent of the law, but also those who fund it.
Musk also said during a CNBC interview yesterday that very few people buy a company’s products because of the CEO’s political beliefs, and many people do not even know where those CEOs stand on various social issues.
Although Musk has gone out of his way to be transparent about his beliefs, he has a valid point. He obviously felt that, because of his influence, he held a duty to uphold American values and protect what he felt was an attack on free speech and human rights.
Disagreeing with Musk and his political stances is totally reasonable, but damaging products that consumers bought from his companies is not impacting him directly. Instead, it is making consumers’ lives more difficult.
News
Tesla Model 3 gets perfect 5-star Euro NCAP safety rating
Tesla prides itself on producing some of the safest vehicles on the road today.

Tesla prides itself on producing some of the safest vehicles on the road today. Based on recent findings from the Euro NCAP, the 2025 Model 3 sedan continues this tradition, with the vehicle earning a 5-star overall safety rating from the agency.
Standout Safety Features
As could be seen on the Euro NCAP’s official website, the 2025 Model 3 achieved an overall score of 90% for Adult Occupants, 93% for Child Occupants, 89% for Vulnerable Road Users, and 87% for Safety Assist. This rating, as per the Euro NCAP, applies to the Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive, Long Range Rear Wheel Drive, Long Range All Wheel Drive, and Performance All Wheel Drive.
The Euro NCAP highlighted a number of the Model 3’s safety features, such as its Active Hood, which automatically lifts during collisions to mitigate injury risks to vulnerable road users, and Automatic Emergency Braking System, which now detects motorcycles through an upgraded algorithm. The Euro NCAP also mentioned the Model 3’s feature that prevents initial door opening if someone is approaching the vehicle’s blind spot.
Standout Safety Features
In a post on its official Tesla Europe & Middle East account, Tesla noted that the company is also introducing new features that make the Model 3 even safer than it is today. These include functions like head-on collision avoidance and crossing traffic AEB, as well as Child Left Alone Detection, among other safety features.
“We also introduced new features to improve Safety Assist functionality even further – like head-on collision avoidance & crossing traffic AEB – to detect & respond to potential hazards faster, helping avoid accidents in the first place.
“Lastly, we released Child Left Alone Detection – if an unattended child is detected, the vehicle will turn on HVAC & alert caregivers via phone app & the vehicle itself (flashing lights/audible alert). Because we’re using novel in-cabin radar sensing, your Tesla is able to distinguish between adult vs child – reduced annoyance to adults, yet critical safety feature for kids,” Tesla wrote in its post on X.
Below is the Euro NCAP’s safety report on the 2025 Tesla Model 3 sedan.
Euroncap 2025 Tesla Model 3 Datasheet by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
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