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Tesla analysts adjust delivery forecasts amid Q2 headwinds

Credit: @TacosandTeslas/Twitter

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Tesla analysts have adjusted their global delivery analysts, considering the headwinds the EV manufacturer faced in Q2 2022.

The Street’s Delivery Forecasts

Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said the Street’s line in the sand for Tesla’s deliveries is roughly 250,000 globally, and anything above 260,000 will be viewed positively. He added that if Tesla reports Model Y and Model 3 deliveries around 240,000 to 245,000, the Street would consider it “good enough.” 

Ives remains bullish on Tesla, forecasting 277,000 deliveries for Tesla in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson also have bullish forecasts at 270,000 deliveries.

Analysts have slashed their delivery estimates as the second quarter ends. Even Ives and Jonas’ current delivery expectations are lower than their initial estimates. Ives initially expected Tesla to deliver around 300,000 vehicles in Q2. 

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On the other side of the spectrum, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh expects Tesla to report 232,000 deliveries, down from 296,000. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank lowered his Tesla delivery estimate to 245,000 from 310,000.

Tesla’s Q2 Headwinds

In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 310,048 vehicles, broken down to 14,218 Model S/X units and 291,189 Model 3/Y cars. Tesla Giga Shanghai was instrumental to Tesla’s record-breaking delivery numbers in Q1 2022. Unfortunately, Tesla China was crippled in Q2 due to Covid-related shutdowns. 

For most of the second quarter, Giga Shanghai worked under the city’s strict closed-loop system, preventing Tesla from working in multiple shifts. Tesla employees worked single 12-hour shifts, six days a week under Shanghai’s closed-loop setup. Tesla Giga Shanghai seems determined to get back to its rhythm but plans to halt production first to upgrade its Model Y assembly line and boost capacity

Meanwhile, Tesla has not ramped production fully at its new gigafactories in Texas and Germany. “Berlin and Austin are losing billions of dollars right now because there’s a ton of expense and hardly any output,” Musk said in an interview with Tesla community leaders. 

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Tesla seemed aware of the challenges coming into the second quarter. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted all the possible headwinds the company might face in Q2.

“Looking ahead in the immediate term, a few things to keep in mind for Q2. First, we’ve lost about a month of build volume out of our factory in Shanghai due to COVID-related shutdowns. Production is resuming at limited levels, and we’re working to get back to full production as quickly as possible. This will impact total build and delivery volume in Q2,” Kirkhorn stated at the Q1 earnings call.

“Second, as I’ve mentioned before, Austin and Berlin are just starting their ramps. And thus, those inefficiencies will start to flow through our gross margins in Q2. Third, we do have higher ASPs in our backlog, which will help to offset some of these headwinds. We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year,” he added.

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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One of Tesla’s biggest threats just got banned in the U.S.

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In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.

The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.

Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.

Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.

The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.

While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.

Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.

Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:

Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns

The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.

By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.

For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.

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Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new Trump autonomy rules

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new rules that the Trump Administration is aiming to enforce on autonomous vehicles. On Thursday, NHTSA, under the Trump Administration’s U.S. Department of Transportation, commenced rulemaking on the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).

This effort aims to eliminate the mandate for manual brake pedals in vehicles that are designed to be driven exclusively by automated driving systems. This would impact the Tesla Cybercab, which the company has stated would operate without a steering wheel or pedals.

Tesla Cybercab launch is imminent after latest sighting at Giga Texas

The Trump Administration is looking to revise FMVSS No. 135, which requires standard braking systems on light-duty vehicles.

Currently, the regulation requires light-duty cars to use traditional manual braking systems that allow operators to slow the vehicle. With the advent of self-driving in the U.S., these regulations need updating, and these are the changes that could come to FMVSS No. 135:

  • Removes requirements for hand- or foot-operated brake controls for vehicles designed never to be operated by a human. Existing rules still apply to AVs that retain manual controls.
  • All subject vehicles must still meet the same stopping distance performance criteria via alternative testing procedures.
  • While this update ensures AVs can physically stop when commanded, NHTSA is separately developing safety performance requirements for AVs in real-world driving scenarios.
  • NHTSA will continue to use its broad defect enforcement authority to investigate unsafe ADS behavior and oversee recalls.

As autonomy becomes a greater part of passenger travel, these types of rule adjustments will be more than reasonable. It will give manufacturers the ability to self-certify their vehicles and avoid any red tape that could ultimately delay the deployment of these vehicles.

Administrators are also incredibly excited about the opportunity to play a role in the advancement of self-driving vehicles.

“We are at the cusp of the greatest technological revolution in vehicle technology since the innovation of the Model T,” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said. “If we want America to lead the way, we have to reimagine our regulatory framework. That’s why under Secretary Sean Duffy’s AV Framework, NHTSA is tearing down pointless barriers to innovative designs while strengthening the fundamental safety requirements that matter and holding AV developers accountable for safe performance.”

The Cybercab entered mass production at Gigafactory Texas in April. Tesla ultimately plans to push the vehicle into its Robotaxi fleet, potentially when frameworks like these are established.

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Tesla plans production boost at Giga Berlin following rebound in Europe

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Credit: Andre Thierig | X

Tesla plans to boost production at its Gigafactory Berlin plant in Germany following a sharp rebound in sales and demand in Europe after a softer 2025.

The plans put Tesla in a better position to compete with strengthening companies in Europe and potentially other markets; demand indicators show Tesla is much better off than in 2025.

Last year was a tough year for Tesla in terms of overall demand in Europe. The company produced over 200,000 vehicles at the German plant last year, a soft figure compared to the 375,000 vehicles Tesla lists as its current capacity at the factory.

Tesla’s overall European sales dropped significantly last year due to a variety of factors. However, sales are rebounding, and demand is strong once again, and only getting stronger. Tesla is now planning to bump production of Model Y vehicles at Giga Berlin upward by about 20 percent. It will also bring 1,000 new jobs to the plant.

Tesla confirmed the details of its planned production expansion in Germany this morning. It is a strategy to keep up with strengthening demand.

In Q1, Tesla saw a record 61,000 vehicles produced at Giga Berlin. European registrations rebounded sharply, with Model Y seeing 117 percent increases in March 2026 compared to last year. Germany alone saw stark increases, with a quadrupling in registrations to 9,252 units.

This trend continued in other key European markets, including France, Denmark and Sweden. Tesla registrations were up over 46 percent in some of these markets, and Model Y continued its trend as a top BEV in the market.

Demand has been recovering strongly in 2026, giving Tesla a reason to expand production efforts at the factory. These increases signal management’s confidence in sustained or growing European pull for Berlin-built vehicles.

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