Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) gained over five percent in Monday morning trading as Morgan Stanley listed the automaker’s stock as its top pick in the automotive sector, despite some firms advising short-term caution as the automaker works through margin pressure and a lower growth rate.
The company was trading at around $230 per share on Monday after the gain. Tesla replaced Ford as Morgan Stanley’s top pick.
Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley who has covered the automotive sector for several years, is well aware of Tesla’s prowess. Holding a $310 price target and an ‘Overweight’ rating, Jonas reiterated his consensus on the stock in a new note on Monday but called Tesla his favorite position in the automotive sector.
Tesla ‘must see stabilization’ in auto business, but analyst believes other strengths overlooked
Cost Cutting/Restructuring
Tesla came within 3 or 4 percent of consensus expectations when it reported earnings last week, which is a big upside for Morgan Stanley:
“The over $0.6bn of restructuring charges recognized by Tesla in the quarter, combined with other actions, has helped lower the breakeven point to levels where Tesla can still generate positive cash flow at an enterprise level, even with EV capacity utilization at 69% last quarter. While Tesla is still making cars, we note the company is aggressively redeploying incremental resources, technology, people, and capital away from the auto side of the house. We found it notable that Ford management spent far more time on its 2Q conference call discussing EVs than Tesla did.”
Cornering ZEV Credits
Jonas believes Tesla could be in a prime position to “achieve an even more dominant position in the market” as OEMs pull back EV plans:
“We anticipate other car companies such as GM and STLA may be wading more deeply into the ZEV market as buyers in the quarters ahead. We estimate Tesla may account for as much as 1/2 the credit sales in the market, supporting a 100% margin business for Tesla that may not be anticipated by the investment community at this time.”
China Risk Management
Tesla China contributed to 18.2 percent of the total revenues for the most recent quarter, Jonas wrote in the note. With increased competition in the market and a robust list of companies that are offering competitive products, Morgan Stanley believes China will account for 10 percent of Tesla’s auto unit volume and up to 7 percent of group revenue.
Tesla is doing a good job of not being too reliant on the Chinese market, as competition is robust.
Strong Energy Portfolio
Energy had a great quarter, setting a record for project deployments by more than doubling its previous record.
Jonas writes:
“Investors are focusing on the theme of Gen AI acceleration spurring a multigenerational increase in energy demand and a recent ~2x beat in 2Q Tesla Energy storage deployments with gross margins roughly 2x that of the auto business.”
Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024
Tesla was up 5.98 percent at 10:35 a.m. on the East Coast.
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla 2025 Holiday Update: Here’s what it includes, and what it’s missing
Man credits Grok AI with saving his life after ER missed near-ruptured appendix
