Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) makes largest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets: report
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as a company is no stranger to doing things that were widely thought of as impossible. It made the stigmatized segment of electric vehicles exciting with cars like the original Roadster and the Model S. It also proved that battery production is the next great frontier with projects such as Gigafactory Nevada.
And with Tesla stock’s recent rampage in the market, the EV maker has done what could very well have seemed impossible just a few years ago — it made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets by adding almost $400 billion to its market cap. The feat, which was recently highlighted in a Fortune article, was something that not even Tesla’s peers in the trillion-dollar club have accomplished in the recent past.
Tesla shares were on a wild surge as of late, with the company going on a tear following its impressive Q3 2021 earnings results on October 20. Just two days after that date, Tesla touched the $1 trillion valuation mark for the first time. News of car rental giant Hertz’s decision to purchase 100,000 Teslas in a $4.2 billion deal then pushed TSLA shares to a one-day gain of 13%, ending the day at $1,025 a share.
Despite Elon Musk later clarifying that the Hertz deal has “zero effect” on Tesla’s economics since the car rental giant would be buying the vehicles at full price, momentum from the contract effectively boosted TSLA stock to an all-time record close of $1,209 per share on November 1. Tesla’s massive surge ultimately saw the company’s market cap growing from $818 billion to $1.2 trillion, an increase of about $392 billion, in just 12 days.
Tesla is a newcomer in the trillion-dollar club, and each of the four companies that stand above the EV maker has experienced its own surges in the past. Apple, for example, saw a 17% bull run from June 7 to July 19 of this year, which allowed the company’s market cap to swell to $2.4 trillion. This run, however, took nearly three times as long as Tesla’s recent rampage, and it was about $50 billion short compared to the EV maker’s 12-day run.
Microsoft’s closest runs came over 20 days from September 27 to October 25, when the tech giant surged by 11.4% and added $225 billion to its market cap. A 15% increase over the 15 days from January 11 to February 8 also resulted in the company adding $240 billion to its market cap. Amazon, for its part, saw a 9.4% surge over nine days from June 21 to July 5 that resulted in a valuation rise of $165 billion. Lastly, Alphabet got its quickest boost over 25 days from March 22 to April 26, when its shares surged 18%, adding $240 billion to the company’s valuation.
What is interesting is that even with Elon Musk’s comments about the Hertz deal not being finalized — and TSLA stock dropping 3.1% in the process — the event only erased about 12 billion from the company’s $392 billion, 12-day advance. If one were to consider this selloff, Tesla would still be particularly impressive, with the company ranking first for a 14-day surge. Overall, Tesla seems poised to set records in the segments it touches, and its stock, which now seems to sit comfortably within the trillion-dollar club, might very well do the same.
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
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Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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