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Tesla Model 3 to remain unchallenged in 2020, predicts analyst

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With the adoption of electric vehicles underway, and with more and more veteran automakers dipping their toes in electric cars, EVs like the Tesla Model 3 are bound to see some competition. This would be notable in coming years, with vehicles like Volvo’s Polestar 2 expected to enter the market as early as 2020. Despite this influx of EVs, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull and Loup Ventures Managing Partner Gene Munster argues that the Model 3 will likely remain unchallenged. 

Currently, there are 17 EVs available in the US market. This is a notable increase from 2018, when there were only 11 that were available for purchase. By next year, there will likely be 24 all-electric cars that buyers could choose from. Munster argues that the majority of these vehicles could be divided into two categories: those that are priced above $70,000 and those that have a rated range below 130 miles. All of these, including the highly-anticipated Rivian R1S (which starts at the ~$70,000 range) or the Mini EV (which has a range of 135 miles), are not mainstream vehicles due to their cost or limited range. 

Available electric vehicles in the US in 2019. (Credit: Loup Ventures)

For an EV to be truly mainstream, Munster noted that the vehicle must be priced below $40,000 and have a range above 225 miles per charge. Only five electric cars in the US today meet this criterion: The Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, the Chevy Bolt EV and the Volt, the Hyundai Kona Electric, and the Kia e-Niro. Munster noted that among these options, the Tesla Model 3 is the “clear winner in terms of value,” and this is something that would likely continue to the coming year. Even with the upcoming competition in 2020, the Model 3 will likely be “unchallenged in its EV value proposition,” the analyst wrote.  

Tesla’s year-to-date EV market share stands at a dominating 75%. According to Munster, he expects this to decline to about 20-25% over the next ten years. Provided that the US auto sales stabilize at around 18 million per year, and provided that electric car adoption becomes widespread, Tesla’s sales in the country could end up yielding around 3.6-4.5 million vehicles per year. This is notable growth, considering that Tesla is expected to deliver just over 200,000 vehicles in the US this year, as part of its estimated 360,000 global deliveries in 2019. 

Expected new electric vehicles in 2020. (Credit: Loup Ventures)

A key factor in this expected continued dominance is Tesla’s increasingly apparent 7-year headstart in the electric vehicle market. Munster argues that this headstart allows Tesla to enjoy a lead against its competitors in terms of batteries that are more efficient compared to other EV manufacturers, a vertically integrated Supercharger Network that’s easier to use compared to third-party charging stations, and dedicated full self-driving capabilities that are specifically tuned for the company’s vehicle lineup. These factors complete the Tesla ownership ecosystem, and all of these are present in the electric car maker’s entry-level offering, the Model 3 Standard Range Plus. 

The narrative of Tesla’s upcoming competition has proven prevalent over the past years, with critics of the company dubbing electric cars such as the Jaguar I-PACE, the Audi e-tron, and the Chevy Bolt EV as potential “Tesla Killers.” As vehicles like the Model 3 continue to prove that Tesla is a moving target, and as companies like Jaguar and Audi exhibit teething problems with the I-PACE and e-tron, the gap between Tesla and its rival automakers continues to become more pronounced.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey endorses Elon Musk Tesla pay package

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

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Twitter co-founder and Square CEO Jack Dorsey has publicly backed Elon Musk’s leadership ahead of Tesla’s pivotal shareholder vote, which is expected to be decided later today at the company’s 2025 annual meeting. 

Dorsey framed the pay package as an engineering and governance crossroads for Tesla.

Dorsey’s public nod framed as an engineering defense of Musk

In a post on X, Dorsey weighed in on Tesla’s post about being in a “critical inflection point.” As per the Twitter-co-founder, the vote on Musk’s 2025 performance award is not about compensation. Instead, it’s about ensuring the path for the company’s engineering in the coming years. 

“This is not about compensation. it’s about ensuring a principled (and exciting!) engineering approach to the company’s future,” Dorsey wrote on his post, later stating that users of Cash app with TSLA shares would be able to vote for the CEO’s proposed 2025 performance award. 

Elon Musk appreciated Dorsey’s endorsement, responding to the Twitter co-founder’s post with a heart emoji. Musk has been pretty thankful for the support for is fellow tech executives, also thanking Michael Dell recently, who also advocated for its proposed 2025 performance award.

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Musk’s support

While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award has received opposition from proxy advisors such as Glass Lewis and ISS, it has received quite a lot of support from longtime bulls such as ARK Invest, and, more recently, Schwab Asset Management following calls from TSLA retail shareholders. 

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved,” Charles Schwab told Teslarati.

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Tesla Robotaxi and autonomy dreams lean on shareholders: Wedbush

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla’s dreams of developing a Robotaxi suite that utilizes a fully autonomous platform developed by the company’s top-tier talent now lean on shareholders and perhaps the most crucial vote in its history.

That’s what Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a new note to investors on Wednesday. As the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting is now just one day away, investors are down to their final chance to vote for or against Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.

Ives wrote that, while the company has made its intentions clear, wanting to maintain Musk, pay him accordingly, and give him the voting power he has long wanted, ultimately, the responsibility falls on investors.

As many retail shareholders have pushed for people to vote for Musk’s compensation package, there are a handful of large-scale funds and firms that have decided to go in another direction. Bullish Wall Street firms, Wedbush being one of them, believe it is crucial for Tesla to maintain Musk.

The vote could have major implications on whether Tesla launches an autonomous Robotaxi suite in the near future, Ives says:

“Getting Musk’s pay package approved tomorrow at the highly anticipated meeting will be a big step towards advancing Tesla’s future goals with the autonomous and Robotaxi roadmap ahead.”

While some investors are convinced the company is ready to go in a different direction simply based on Musk’s political involvement over the past year, many investors are under the impression that the development of Tesla’s autonomy suite, as well as its prowess in the EV sector, would fall if Elon were not at the helm.

Tesla’s Board of Directors has already stated that they have received confirmation that Musk’s political involvement would wind down in a timely manner. Moving forward, his focus will not veer from the mission of any of his companies; at least that’s what can be gathered from some of the Board’s communications over the past month.

Musk’s new compensation package is incentivized by performance metrics and will require him to achieve a handful of lofty tranches. He will not get paid unless he drives shareholder value, which is something many skeptics tend to leave out.

Ives continues:

“This new incentive-driven pay package for Musk would also provide an additional 423 million shares of common stock (~12% of shares), which would increase his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power, which we believe was critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history. We believe this was the smart move by the Board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk…and with the AI Revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and center.”

Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $600 price target on shares.

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UPDATE: Tesla investors push Charles Schwab for Musk comp plan clarification

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tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Update: 4:00 p.m. EDT – Charles Schwab has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement, clarifying that it plans to vote FOR Musk’s compensation package:

“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
There have also been updates to the headline and various paragraphs to reflect this as well as accuracy.

Tesla investors are pushing Charles Schwab for clarification after it was expected to vote against CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.

The Tesla community appeared to see that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.

Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:

At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs were expected to vote against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.

Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.

It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.

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